Langton Capital – 2022-11-28 – Off trade discounts, consumer, W Cup, DOM, Nando’s, XPF & other.:
Off trade discounts, consumer, W Cup, DOM, Nando’s, XPF & other.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Well, it’s December later this week and, though the years during which we had to watch the film Home Alone every day for a month are probably behind us, I’ll still have to put the tree up soon. And then I’ll have to practice my December smile, the one that says, basically, leave me alone. Anyway, a point (the song quiz is over to the right) and a few questions. • Thanks to the contributor who posed the question, which English football team’s name begins with five consecutive consonants? The answer’s obvious – but maybe only when you know it. • And which are the best lines that define a film even before you’ve finished saying them? My favourite is perhaps ‘I see dead people’ but there are many others. Drop us and let’s move on to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: World Cup: David Lee of Insight & Solutions Ltd has updated on the first 7 days’ trading over the World Cup and says that ‘Monday and Friday – the days of England and Wales matches were the busiest Monday & Friday of the year to date.’ In the last 12mths, the two match days were beaten only by Christmas Eve 2021. Insight says ‘Friday sales were higher than any other Friday this year and the sales were higher than the Euros final with England v Italy on Sunday 11.07.21.’ It says ‘every day outside of Monday and Friday saw sales lower than the previous week, Saturday sales were significantly cannibalised by Friday sales – with significant evening sales declines…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Trading: CGA has reported that drink sales in the on-trade in the week to 19 November (not encompassing any of the World Cup matches) was up by 3% on 2019. CGA says this was ‘despite the mounting pressure on consumers’ disposable incomes’ but it does add that ‘after adjustments for inflation—which hit a 40-year high of 11% in October – sales are still significantly below last year’s levels…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Guardian reports on what it deems to be soggy food-led bookings for December. It says staffing issues are leading to reduced opening hours in some cases. The Market: IGD comments on the total UK food & drink market and says that it has declined in real-terms sales thus far this year. It says it expects the full year to be down 2% in real terms but up 6.6% in nominal terms with ‘further growth for 2023 of +5%…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Discounts: Despite the World Cup, Domino’s is still offering 30% off orders over £20 (£25 or £30 in some areas). The offer ends 4 Dec. That’s not to say that it won’t be replaced with another offer. See client copy for comment on the off-trade. Other news: PROOF Insight’s Intelligence report has announced the top 10 Craft Brewers in the UK, with Verdant Brewing Co. taking the number 1 spot, followed by Cloudwater Brew Co. and DEYA in second and third, respectively. Labour issues spilling into supply: Employees in Tesco’s division Best Food Logistics have voted to strike over pay. Best Food Logistics delivers food for KFC, Burger King, Pizza Hut, and Wagamama among other chains. The Telegraph questions whether, with things getting tougher for the foreseeable future, younger people may not be tempted to emigrate with a consequent negative impact on labour supply… THE CONSUMER: Hit by rising utility costs. The government is reportedly drawing up plans to expand a public information campaign aimed at helping households reduce their energy use this winter… The government has warned energy firms not to raise customers’ direct debit payments if it looks as though households are making “huge efforts” to cut usage… The scale of the issue: York University’s social policy unit has concluded that millions of households will be paying almost a third of their disposable income in fuel costs when prices rise again this spring… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Longer term squeeze: Lumina Intelligence’s Wholesale Market Report finds that 50% of business leaders see the squeeze on household budgets as the most important long-term consumer trend impacting eating out and grocery this year… COMPANY NEWS: Domino UK’s acting CEO Elias Diaz Seze has said that the World Cup has provided a boost to sales. He tells the Daily Mail that the chain has been preparing ‘the entire year’ for the tournament and is hoping that the World Cup will break records. Domino’s is reported to have hired an additional 10,000 staff in the last two months. Diaz says ‘we knew that it was going to be big, but it has definitely been much better than expected…’ XP Factory (Boom Battle Bars & Escape Hunt) has updated on openings announcing ‘the opening of its flagship site on London’s Oxford Street’. In addition to the Oxford St site, which opened on 25 November, XPF says ‘two further Boom owner operated sites, two Boom franchise sites, and one Escape Hunt owner operated site have opened since 28 September 2022….’ Elliott Advisors is reported ‘poised to bankroll £70m rescue of Superdry’ says the Daily Telegraph. The Evening Standard reports that ‘chicken restaurant chain Nando’s has slashed its losses by more than half amid a “bounce-back” in customer demand over the past year.’ It says the return to profit was slowed down by wage inflation, higher goods costs and disruption across the firm’s supply chain… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Chairman of Loungers Alex Reilley tweeted on Friday ‘and so it begins – we got the keys to our first Brightside today. Located opposite Exeter Racecourse on the A38 the first Brightside will launch in early February 2023.’ Sky reports that Rooney Anand’s RedCat Pub Company has received further investment from Oaktree Capital, with the amount not being revealed… Côte Restaurant Group has reported full year numbers to end-September 2021. It reports revenue of £72.7m for year with LFL turnover up 7.6% vs 2019 for the period from reopening on 17 May 2021 to September 2021. Adjusted EBITDA of £0.3m reflected long periods of closure during the year. The administration of the old Côte business was successfully closed, with all key assets secured. Nightcap co-founders Sarah Willingham and Michael Toxvaerd have called on the union RMT to switch the rail strike dates in exchange for free drinks. The co-founders said ‘December should be sacrosanct…We are calling on the RMT union to move the strikes to the third week of January’. Luckin Coffee reported Q3 revenue up 66% YoY to $547.5m, opening 651 net new stores during the period, reaching 7,846 locations across China… Tim Hortons plans to double its drive-thru estate within one year of opening in the UK, following the opening of its 50th drive-thru in Watford on 28 November. The Canadian QSR brand plans to open four further drive-thrus before the end of 2022, and is targeting 40 new restaurants for 2023 to add to its estate of 65. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: A survey of more than 26,000 people across 25 countries conducted by YouGov for the World Travel & Tourism Council ahead of its 22nd global summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia has concluded that the appetite for international travel is now at its highest point since the start of the pandemic, reports Travel Weekly. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Cait Hewitt, policy director at Aviation Environment Federation, has warned that the only way the aviation sector will reach net zero by 2050 is if there is a reduction in the number of people flying. However, Matthew Gorman MBE, Heathrow’s carbon strategy director, said greater efficiency is a ‘fundamental baseline’ for cutting emissions from aviation, instead of saying fewer people should fly. FINANCE & MARKETS: Regarding the outlook for interest rates in the UK, Barclays has suggested that there will be a 50bp hike in December, but it says it now expects the MPC to raise by 50bp in February next year and by 25bp in March to take Bank Rate to 4.25%… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Telegraph quotes Stena Line as saying that the EU is complicating post-Brexit trade by checking UK passports in a different queue to those for EU members. Rightmove reports that demand for rental homes across the UK has risen by almost a quarter in a year. Would-be home buyers may be holding off from making purchases if they believe that house prices are about to fall. Jaguar Land Rover is cutting output at its factories in Solihull and Halewood until the spring due to supply problems. Figures from the Department for International Trade show that the first major free trade agreement signed by Britain after Brexit rules came into force has coincided with a reduction in trade levels, the “historic” deal with Japan that was signed by then-trade secretary Liz Truss in October 2020 has seen exports fall from £12.3bn in 2019 to £11.9bn in 2022.These numbers are before taking account of inflation. Sterling mixed at $1.2047 and €1.1635. Oil lower at $81.19. UK 10yr gilt yield up 7bps at 3.11%. World markets mixed on Friday & Far East lower in Monday trade. London set to open down around 36pts as at 6.30am. THE AQUIS MARKET: Broker VSA Capital is hosting an Aquis Day tomorrow, Tues 29 November at the Royal College of Surgeons (38-43 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, London, WC1A 3PE). The event will feature around 20 companies, who will present to attendants and take part in a competition to win the ‘Britain’s Got Aquis’ title. Judges on the day will include Andy Brough (Schroders) and Judith Mackenzie of Downing LLP. Tickets and details are available HERE https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-vsa-capital-aquis-showcase-event-tickets-430890363677?aff=odeimcmailchimp&mc_eid=cfe56acbe0&mc_cid=cd83de005f Attendance costs £20 – but Langton has a number of complimentary tickets and we’re open to suggestions as to who we should give them to…. Drop us a line. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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