Jobs data, labour issues, strikes & snow, IHG, CINE & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I think our newly-fitted smart meter is putting years on me.

That’s partly because it seems to have defaulted to a weekly running total with a ‘budget’ figure in red that we seem to be breaching by about Wednesday or Thursday every week.

And that isn’t necessarily good for your stress levels, not least because there are £ signs attached and it’s starting to look as though not only is the big figure wrong but the decimal point is in the wrong place.

Still, we’re not alone in the above and, on a more serious note, when opining on how much consumers will be willing to spend on hospitality goods and services, particularly after Christmas, it’s worth remembering that these things exist and that they’re constantly giving you the bad news from their perch on top of the fridge or on the kitchen worktop.

Anyway, on a completely different subject, we were reading press releases yesterday and the phrase ‘virtue signalling’ came to mind. Are there any examples readers would like to ping across? On to the news:

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LABOUR ISSUES:

The backdrop

• Operators are faced with a tight labour market. They have to decide whether to:

o a) source more staff,

o b) work more efficiently with the staff that they have (tech, better shift scheduling and general good housekeeping etc) or

o c) cut shifts, reduce opening hours, cut menu size etc.

• The last will not be the chosen course for operators but, particularly at the smaller end of the market, it may be necessary.

Access to labour:

• Foodservice analyst Peter Backman comments on labour shortages across the hospitality industry will particular reference to the 17-21 year old cohort which is heavily overrepresented in hospitality. Mr Backman says that 21.4% of 17-21 year olds are working in hospitality compared to just 5.2% of all age groups.

• Whilst word of mouth is still vitally important, reaching younger people can require a slightly different approach to that for older groups. Social media will be particularly important. And not necessarily the ‘dad-sites’ like Facebook and even Twitter. Tik Tok, Instagram and others that Langton won’t have likely heard of are vitally important. See also our comments on labour issues above.

Tik Tok, Snapchat & Instagram vs Facebook

• With the above in mind, Langton is currently working with a service provider that aims to optimise recruitment systems by working alongside the HR component of its clients.

• Its strategies help attract talent from lesser-tapped social media, increasing exposure to the new generations as the way younger people look for work opportunities continues to evolve.

• Business testimonials have been very positive. To find out more and/or for an introduction, please contact Langton by REPLYING TO THIS EMAIL.

UK EMPLOYMENT DATA:

The ONS has this morning updated on the UK employment market. It says the rate of unemployment rose in the August to October period by 0.1pps to 3.7%. The ONS says ‘the economic inactivity rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points on the quarter to 21.5% in August to October 2022. Job vacancies down. Inflation somewhat entrenched, average pay growth accelerates. Real pay still down & more…

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Train strikes:

Not new news for many but, after rejecting the latest offer from employers, RMT union members are to strike today and tomorrow. Services will be severely disrupted on Thursday and then a second, two-day strike commences on Thursday.

The Snow:

Hard at this stage to assess the impact. But The Morning Advertiser reports that Heath Ball, operator of the Red Lion & Sun in Highgate, north London, has seen his bookings for today halve as a result of the snowfall last night. Ball added ‘It’s just demoralising, you just want to have a Christmas trade and you’re getting screwed now’.

The World Cup:

Good while it lasted – at least for wet-led pubs – but, with England out, sales are likely to edge back to more normal levels…

Market intelligence business The Oxford Partnership has suggested that the England France match represented ‘one last hurrah for pubs – with 28.5 million pints sold across the UK which equated to an extra 166 pints compared to a typical Friday and Saturday. England fans drank an additional 126 pints, Scotland 56 more and Wales were down -23 pints on Saturday for the big game…’

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Footfall:

Springboard reports that footfall entered a lull last week  following the boost delivered in the preceding two weeks by Black Friday and Cyber Monday…

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Energy costs:

UKH CEO Kate Nicholls has said that up to a quarter of a million jobs could be lost on the high street if the government doesn’t extend its support on energy costs beyond next April…

Other news:

The Welsh Government is to offer a £460 million package of rates support in the next financial year. Welsh minister for finance and local government Rebecca Evans comments ‘we know that businesses are feeling the pressure of spiralling energy costs and rising inflation, while they are still recovering from the impacts of the pandemic…’

COMPANY NEWS:

Majestic Wine has announced price freezes for its on-trade partners until April next year. On top of the price freezes, the specialist wine retailer will offer non-commercial customers the chance to win £1,000 to spend with Majestic by recommending their favourite pub.

Pernod Ricard is to reported set to invest more than US$250 million dollars over the next five year in a facility in Kentucky for Jefferson’s Bourbon.

Pho is to open a site in Bournemouth this week.

Costa Coffee is set to open its first site in Pakistan via a partnership with current UK franchisee Gerry’s Group. Gerry’s says ‘we believe in the uplifting power of a great cup of coffee.’

Swedish bakery and cafe Soderberg is set to open its second site in London, to be located in East Dulwich. Soderberg has its main home in Edinburgh but opened a cafe in Soho in 2019.

JD Wetherspoon has announce that regional manager and employee director Debbie Whittingham has been named in the 2022 Women to Watch & Role Models for Inclusion Index. The index highlights talented women who have achieved personal and professional success through leadership, innovation and determination.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

InterContinental Hotels Group has today announced the appointment of Michael Glover as Chief Financial Officer. It says ‘Michael will take up his new position and become an Executive Director of IHG’s Board and a member of IHG’s Executive Committee with effect from 20 March 2023…’

Aviation analytics firm Cirium reports that 316 flights were cancelled across the UK over the weekend, as snow and ice continue to cause aviation disruption. Heathrow had the greatest number of cancellations with 119, equating to 10% of all its scheduled flights. Gatwick was the worst affected, seeing 16% (91) of all its flights cancelled. Stansted, at one point, was reported to be closed altogether.

Travelodge has announced that it plans to double its presence in London, with the budget hotel company searching for 127 sites across the capital…

Strikes. Heathrow claims that the vast majority of travellers will be unaffected by this month’s planned strikes by Border Force workers, lasting for several days from Dec 23. On Friday, Britain’s defence ministry said military personnel were training to carry out passport checks in case they needed to be deployed.

OTHER LEISURE:

CEO of Cineworld Mooky Greidinger has been given a six-month suspended jail sentence by a court in Israel as a result of an anti-trust case…

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Ofcom is reviewing whether to relax limits on advert breaks for public service broadcasters from an average of seven to nine minutes per hour to reflect growing competition from streaming services. The longer ad break could provide an additional £150m revenue to ITV. However, Channel 5, which is owned by US media giant Paramount, is among a group of smaller channels opposing the easing of restrictions.

Elon Musk has teased plans about increasing Twitter’s character limit per tweet from 280 to 4,000. The change has seen some pushback from users, with some concerned that it would compromise Twitter’s defining characteristic of being a microblog.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

See comment on ONS jobs data above.

The BCC has commented on yesterday’s UK trade figures saying ‘there was a cloudy trade picture in October as goods exports fell again – well short of forecast 2022 growth.’

The OBR yesterday reported that GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in October 2022 following a fall of 0.6% in September. Estimates were for around 0.4% growth in October. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said the UK economy will get worse before it gets better. Mr Hunt says ‘these figures confirm that this is a very challenging economic situation here and across the world.’

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The latest Make UK / BDO report on the manufacturing industry suggests that it will shrink by 4.0% this year and by a further 3.2% next year.

Sterling higher at $1.2271 and €1.1634. Oil up at $79.06. UK 10yr gilt yield up 1bp at 3.20%. World markets mixed yesterday. London set to open up around 19pts as at 6.30am.

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