Langton Capital – 2023-01-04 – Footfall, inflation, WFH, current trading, JDW, Covid & Travel & other:
Footfall, inflation, WFH, current trading, JDW, Covid & Travel & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Thanks to those who wrote in to comment on current trading, much of which we’ll be able to collate later in the week. However, just at this very moment, we’re engaged once again in unpaid labour for the tax authorities, the FCA and various other bodies who seem to find it amusing to plonk deadlines around this time of year. With luck, we should surface for breath later today. Hard news, in the form of company Q4 and Christmas updates, starts again tomorrow. In the meantime, let’s move on to what there is elsewhere: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Post-Christmas footfall: Springboard reports that footfall was up 9.3% YoY for the week ending 31 December, but was down 23.1% on the same week in 2019. The week began strongly with footfall on Boxing Day 2022 higher than in 2021, continuing to rise each day until 30 December, when it started to decline going into the New Year… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Inflation. December’s British Retail Consortium-NielsenIQ shop price index reports that food grocery costs were up 13.3% in the year to December 2022 (from 12.4% in the year to November)… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. End of (or tapering down of) energy support could lead to still higher prices. The government’s energy support plan to date has lowered inflation (which is good) at the cost of higher government debt (which is bad). The trade off could be wound down in coming months – in fact it has to be – and this could lead to a reversal of the above (albeit at a time when inflation should be falling for other, external reasons)… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. WFH. The BBC reports analysts Placemake.io and Visitor Insights as saying that mobile phone data suggests that a ‘typical week in the office now runs from Tuesday to Thursday’. This will not come as a shock to many hospitality operators… Strikes prolong WFH mind-set? Strike action by the RMT and Aslef unions has caused workers to work from home in order to mitigate travel disruption. The return to offices will effectively be pushed back to Jan 9, the first strike-free working day of 2023, according to experts…. Current trading: Kate Nicholls, the CEO of UKHospitality, has said many pubs and restaurants are opting to cut capacity by 20% in January. Nicholls said ‘The fear is that people will tighten their belts quite considerably. That’s when the cost of living will bite. And you’ll see customers not going out as frequently…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Elsewhere, The Oxford Partnership reports that over the ‘key Christmas trading days (Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Years Eve & New Years Day)’ sales of draught beer and cider sales were up +1.4% vs. 2021… Energy support: The Times reports that Rishi Sunak is poised to halve financial support on energy bills for businesses, amid concerns about the cost… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Discounts: Discounts are often in the news in January. Currently, M&B brands Nicholson’s and Sizzling Pub are offering £10 off £30 bar bills and 40% off main meals respectively on mid-week days during January. Other news: US trading. Alignable in the US has concluded that 52% of independent restaurant owners couldn’t afford to pay December’s rent, up from little over 40% in November. Cash balances should be at a high and debt levels at a low so soon after Christmas. Alignable says that around 80% of small business owners are worried about rising interest rates. The Telegraph has reported that many companies are being forced to rely on their savings in order to continue trading… COMPANY NEWS: JD Wetherspoon will sell some pints for just 99p during January as it launches a sale to drive volumes at the business… HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: In what looks rather like an unstructured response, several member states such as France, Spain and Italy have already imposed their own new Covid rules for arrivals from China, despite the EU being unable to agree on joint measures for incoming passengers… Kuoni’s new multi-media campaign will run throughout the peak January and February sales period on digital platforms, radio, out-of-home advertising, direct mail and national press. The campaign includes a new sponsorship deal with Times Radio. Iberia has been named the European leader for airline on-time performance in 2022, with Spanish airlines taking the top four places in the ranking of the best performing in Europe. No UK airline or airport made the top rankings for punctuality, according to the listings released by aviation data firm Cirium. Hotel News Now in the US has opined that lending rates for hotel companies could continue to rise as lenders take a risk averse approach during the current economic malaise. OTHER LEISURE: Netflix is forecast to have lost around 500,000 UK subscribers in 2022… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Sky reports that Flutter Entertainment ‘has begun approaching candidates to become its next chairman’. It says a successor to current chairman Gary McGann is being sought. FINANCE & MARKETS: S&P released its final PMI reading for the UK manufacturing sector yesterday saying that the sector ‘ended 2022 on a weak footing, with output, new orders and employment all falling at faster rates.’ The headline number, where any result below 50.0 implies contraction, came in at a 31mth low of 45.3 versus 46.5 in November… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Sterling mixed at $1.1983 and €1.1335. Oil price lower at $81.86. UK 10yr gilt yield down 2bps at 3.65%. World markets mixed yesterday after a strong start in Europe. London set to open up around 11pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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