Langton Capital – 2023-01-12 – M&B, Whitbread, Gym Group, delivery, inflation, hotels & other:
M&B, Whitbread, Gym Group, delivery, inflation, hotels & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Very busy on releases. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN MITCHELLS & BUTLERS Q1 UPDATE: M&B has updated on Q1 trading and our comments are set out below: Headline figures: LfL revenue for the 15wks to 7 Jan were up by 10.4% on the same period last year and up by 15.1% if the benefit of lower VAT in the prior period is excluded. Food is up 6.4% (pre the VAT adjustment) and drink sales are up 15.5%. The group has split the period into the ten weeks to 3 December and the last five weeks of the period. Total LfL sales in the first part of Q1 were up by 6.5% and in the last five weeks they were up 19.0%. This is indicative of both a good Christmas (strikes excluded) and the absence of an Omicron impact, which did hold back sales in FY22. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Asset values: Fleurets’ Survey of Pub Prices – January 2023 reports the average freehold sale price of pubs has risen by 41% on last year to £874,056. However, low levels of transactional volumes means that the types of pubs being sold may be different year to year… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Train strikes: Mick Whelan, leader of train drivers’ union Aslef, has said that a solution to the ongoing labour dispute remains elusive, stating ‘We’re further away than we started…’ The weather (in December) & strikes: Nielsen yesterday reported that ;supermarkets also benefited from some very cold weather in early December and also from continued rail disruption, which may have held back some spend in the hospitality channels later in the month, helping food retailers to gain “share of calories consumed” from the out-of-home channels.’ Inflation. There is some disagreement over the current direction of food price inflation. Nielsen says total Supermarket Till value growth increased to 10.9% from 7.6% (3rd December, 2022). It says ‘this was due to accelerated food inflation, week comps & strong trading in the week running up to 24 Dec.’ Employment. Cautionary comments from a couple of recruitment firms this week have raised fears that unemployment could shortly increase. This will be a) bad for the people impacted but also b) it will have a negative impact on confidence for workers retaining their jobs… Delivery: Foodservice analyst Peter Backman has considered food delivery companies’ claims to be ‘tech companies’ and questions whether this is as true as it first seems… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. COMPANY NEWS: Deliveroo shares fell 5% yesterday on broker comments that, though the World Cup would have boosted the food delivery group’s orders, it would not be sufficient to hold up against forces (such as the cost of living crisis) that are pushing in the opposite direction… Virgin Wines UK has updated on calendar H2 2022 trading saying that ‘total revenue for the Period was £33.7m (FY22: £40.5m), as despite strong rates of customer acquisition in the face of high inflation and cost-of-living pressures, sales were impacted by some one-off factors, particularly over the Christmas trading period…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Wall Street Journal reports that Subway has retained advisers to consider a potential sale. Subway has not commented. Shake Shack reports it will open 65 to 70 restaurants this year. As reported yesterday, it is currently enamoured with drive through units. Propel reports that the majority of Crussh businesses have been retained in pre-pack deal. Laine Pub Co reports turnover of £51.1m for the year to 14 August 2022, up from £28.8m the year prior. Profit after tax more than doubled to £2.9m from £1.1m the year before, and EBITDA was £6.6m, up from £211k. Inception Group reported revenue up 92% YoY for the year ended 31 December 2021, with EBITDA of £3.9m, in comparison to a £1.2m loss in 2020. The MA reports that online beer shop Hoptimism has been forced to shut down after its worst December on record. UKHospitality has warned the sector is facing a winter challenge ‘like no other’ due to the financial strain of rail strikes, soaring inflation rates and the cost-of-living crisis. RedCat Pub Company reports revenue of £62.8m for the period to 3 April 2022 after being incorporated on 7 January 2021… Rudy’s Pizza Napoletana will open its third Leeds pizzeria on Otley Road, Headingley this spring. WHITBREAD Q3 TRADING UPDATE: Whitbread has updated on Q3 trading and our comments thereon are set out below. Headline numbers: Whitbread reports that Premier Inn UK has seen ‘continued outperformance with total accommodation sales 24.1pp ahead of the midscale and economy market in Q3 FY23.’ It says ‘total UK accommodation sales were 24% ahead of Q3 FY22 and 37% ahead of Q3 FY20, driven by a combination of increased occupancy, higher average room rate and estate growth with a strong performance across both London and the Regions.’ The company adds that ‘F&B sales were 8% ahead of Q3 FY22 and while this… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Ski Solutions managing director Craig Burton has said recent snowfall and cool weather in the alps has prompted a surge in ski bookings, saying ‘enquiries focused on the higher altitude destinations such as Val d’Isere, Val Thorens and our Norwegian resorts, which have exceptionally good conditions right now….’ EasyHotel has opened its first Irish hotel, located in Dublin, taking the budget hotel chain to 44 sites. The newly built 160-room hotel in the Irish capital sits among popular tourist attractions including the Guinness Storehouse, Temple Bar and Dublin Castle. Heathrow reports the highest level of festive passengers for three years, with more than 5.9 million passengers travelling in December, up 90% YoY. The airport said it oversaw a ‘smooth and efficient’ service despite a strike by Border Force officers. New York JFK was the London airport’s busiest route. Hilton has launched a budget brand, Spark by Hilton. Luton airport recorded its busiest Christmas Day ever last year. Some 12,000 departing passengers used the airport on the day. STR reports that December data suggests that ‘London hotel average daily rate and revenue per available room came in higher than the 2019 comparable for an eighth consecutive month. It says occupancy was 76.8% and ADR was £206.87. OTHER LEISURE: Gym Group has updated on full year trading for the year to end December… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. FINANCE & MARKETS: Property in the news: The Bank of England is reported to be launching a crackdown on buy-to-let mortgage lending for fear that defaults could be caused by the recession. There are a wide range of estimates as to how far residential property prices could fall. Some agents, such as Hampton’s, has predicted no drop at all whilst other observers are looking for falls of 10-12% or so. Real Estate analytics company CoStar has said that commercial property deals are at lowest level in more than a decade. Only £7bn of deals were transacted in Q4 last year, the lowest quarterly total since at least 2010. House builder Barratt has reported a “marked slowdown” in the UK housing market in H2 last year… Sterling weaker at $1.2155 and €1.129. Oil up at $82.75. UK 10yr gilt yield down 15bps. World markets better yesterday and London set to open up around 22pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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