Brands, trading, the consumer, plastics, Byron, Jet2 & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, it’s mild at the moment – though that’s apparently soon to change – it’s stopped raining and the days are getting longer meaning that, at some point, I may come under pressure to do a bit of gardening.

The ice and frost was a handy excuse for a while.

And ‘preparing for Christmas’ kept gardening at bay a bit longer and the current flooding is doing that same but we can all feel the earth tilting and it’s only a matter of time

Anyway, ‘gardening’ may only involve pottering around carrying a shovel to look busy for a while, but it could still come as a bit of a shock to the system as the snowdrops and the various garden birds might be ready for spring but I’m not altogether sure that I am. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

CGA has updated on wet sales for the first week of January (the week to 7th) compared with the same week in 2022 saying that ‘Britain’s On Premise began 2023 with a sound week of year-on-year growth—[they were up 2% in total in monetary terms] but inflation and intense pressure on people’s spending mean sales are still well below pre-COVID levels….’

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UKH is reported set to ask for further help for the hospitality industry ‘with repayments on loans taken out under the government’s schemes when it lobbies Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor’, reports The Times. CEO Kate Nicholls said ‘the government could ask banks to be more lenient with borrowers or demand that lenders automatically extend loan repayment terms to applicants.’

The consumer:

The December edition of the YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index released last week showed that consumers were a shade less pessimistic with a 1.0 point improvement in the overall confidence score, which now stands at 95.9. It says ‘the rise was driven by gains in the short-term (+3.3) and forward-looking (+8.8) household finance measures…’

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Consumer squeeze: Essentials (the costs of food, housing & heating) are taking a larger proportion of disposable income. Disposable income itself, at least in real terms, is also under pressure due to tax increases that will be staggered over the next couple of years. The FT reports that UK mortgage payments have risen to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis…

Plastics.

A ban on some single-use plastics is to be imposed in England from October. The BCC says businesses could do with more support to implement such policies. UKH says ‘sustainability is a priority for the hospitality sector, with UKHospitality committed to the industry-wide goal of reaching net zero by 2040, which includes completely eliminating single-use plastics…’

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Economy:

UKHospitality CEO Kate Nicholls commented on the ONS UK GDP November growth figure of +0.1% MoM, saying it ‘underlines the importance of hospitality in driving economic growth and recovery. The World Cup provided a significant boost in November, with pubs and bars reporting sales up 30-40% on matchdays…’

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Other news:

Business rates in Scotland: UKHospitality Scotland urges the Scottish Government to give short-term business rates relief, in order to diminish the jeopardy many businesses face…

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COMPANY NEWS:

Famously Proper Ltd, owner of the Byron Burger chain, is to close nine restaurants and cut 218 jobs in its latest restructure of the business. Some 12 sites will remain open. A new company, Tristar Foods, is to operate the surviving sites…

Starbucks in the US has told corporate employees living within “commuting distance” of its HQ in Seattle to come into the office for three days a week beginning at the end of this month.

Just Eat has welcomed Sainsbury’s to its system as the supermarket moves to offer almost-instant home shopping…

The MCA reports that Inception Group saw record Christmas sales, but that train strikes affected trade by around 25% in the third week of December. Inception operates Mr Fogg’s and Control Room B.

Rosa’s Thai is opening its first site in the South West next month, located in Exeter Guildhall.

Flat Iron is opening a 90-seat restaurant in Kensington this spring.

Packaged fruit supplier Orchard House Foods has filed a notice of intention to appoint an administrator. A spokesperson said input prices and overheads had increased, putting ‘significantly increased pressure’ on its cash position.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Jet2holidays research has revealed that 82% of Brits have considered a package holiday due to the current economic climate, with 57% adamant that they will take an overseas holiday in summer 2023. The Greek islands are most popular, followed by Italy, the Canary Islands and Portugal.

Travel Weekly reports that holiday sales are likely to remain high on forthcoming Blue Monday – coined as the most depressing day of the year where Christmas credit card bills come due & January paychecks have not yet been paid. Last week saw trading up 87% week-on-week with May being was the top selling month.

Gatwick reports passenger numbers up 420% YoY to 33 million in 2022, but still lagged behind 2019 levels at 71% of pre-pandemic numbers. Air India announced it will add four new destinations from Gatwick, including Goa and Amritsar.

London City Airport reports that 2022 passenger numbers were up 318% YoY to over 3 million, but still lagged 2019’s 5.1 million. All of its five busiest days were recorded between June and July.

The Advantage Travel Partnership reports that average spending per holiday in its last week of sales was £3,104, up about 5% on last year.

OTHER LEISURE:

Tesla is reported to have cut the price of some of its cars by thousands of pounds in Europe and the US, in an attempt to boost demand.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Friday stats showed that the UK economy grew in November, boosted by the World Cup’s impact on hospitality. See also Friday’s comment.

UK trade stats on Friday improved in November. The BCC says ‘UK trade performance improved in November, led by a 6.1% increase in goods imports (adjusted for inflation). Goods exports also picked up, rising by 1.7%, but concerns about the impact of the Brexit deal continue – due to a 1.2% fall in goods exports to the EU. …’

Sterling up at $1.2263 and €1.1289. Oil higher at $84.54. UK 10yr gilt yield up 1bp at 3.35%. World markets better on Friday but Far East lower this morning in Monday trade. London set to open around unchanged as at 6.30am.

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