Langton Capital – 2023-02-02 – Travelodge, Meta, profit warnings, cost of living, Stonegate & more:
Travelodge, Meta, profit warnings, cost of living, Stonegate & more:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Have you ever had that dream, you know, the one where you dream your alarm is going off but you know it can’t be because you’ve only just gone to bed? But then you realise it is going off, it is time to get up, it isn’t a dream and the day just kind of goes downhill from there? Yeah? Well, yesterday was one of those. No time, place or appetite for details here but suffice it to say it involved computer problems, connectivity issues, mild profit warnings from companies that we’d really rather didn’t and a bit of frantic money-moving to ensure that bills that needed paying wouldn’t end up bouncing around frantically like, well, like the government’s economic policy or whatever. Anyway, today’s another day. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Profit warnings: EY Parthenon has released its latest analysis (calendar 2022) of profit warnings by listed companies in the UK. These had not surprisingly gone up but they need perhaps to be considered in some sort of context… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Consumer behaviour: Accountant RSM polled 1,000 consumers in the wake of the November budget to gauge their sentiment towards discretionary spend in 2023… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Staffing issues: Lightspeed’s new Global State of Hospitality Report has suggested that staff retention is less of an issue in the UK than it is in some other markets… Selling prices: Lightspeed reports that 69% of hospitality businesses raised their menu prices in 2022. The surprise, perhaps, is that it wasn’t 100%. Reader feedback that the price of an egg sandwich in Pret has risen from £1.85 just over a year ago to £2.99. Pre Budget submissions. Comments from BBPA, BII, Camra. The BII has written to chancellor Jeremy Hunt calling for further support for its members ahead of the spring budget next month… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Cost of living: Water bills will rise at their fastest rate in around 20 years in April. The average bill will rise by 7.5% to around £448. Which magazine has reported that around 2.3 million households missed an essential payment in January, up 400,000 on the month before. January is a tough month and Which concedes that the number is similar to previous years… OTHER NEWS: Inflation. The BRC says shop inflation is currently running at 8% but says that it has not yet peaked… Wealth effect & houses. House prices impact the ‘propensity to spend’ via the Wealth Effect. People feel richer, they spend more. They feel poorer, they spend less. See Finance & Markets for Nationwide HPI for January. Strikes: Rail strikes brought most of the UK network to a halt yesterday. UKH CEO Kate Nicholls told City AM that the strikes could cost hospitality a further £100m in lost sales, with “much of that impact being felt in London”… Cost-saving & the consumer. Indebted to Nick Bubb for pointing out what may be a sign of the times. Kantar reports Aldi again the fastest growing grocer, with sales +26.9% in the last 12 weeks vs last year & Lidl +24.1%. Waitrose sales down 0.6% in the period & indebted Morrisons down by 1.9%. Menus: Lumina Intelligence has reported that Italian restaurants remained the most popular segment across the UK restaurant market in Q4 last year… Training. The Institute of Brewing & Distilling is to launch the first IBD technical on-demand course for brewers: Beer Recipe Development. Daily Joe. Caffeine Content: Which magazine has measured the caffeine in cappuccino, espresso and filter coffee at Caffè Nero, Costa, Greggs, Pret a Manger and Starbucks. It found that a Pret single espresso had six times as much caffeine as Starbucks’s… Alcohol harm. Drinkaware has announced the launch of a new strategy, which aims to reduce alcohol harm in the UK.. COMPANY NEWS: Stonegate is looking to sell 1,000 of its pubs, around a fifth of its total, in order to reduce debts, reports Bloomberg… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Hotel Chocolat Group has announced the appointment of Jon Akehurst as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer effective in May 2023. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Travelodge has reported record results in 2022 saying that total underlying revenues were up 25% on 2019 levels with EBITDA is expected to be between £210m and £215m, up from £129.1m in 2019 and £81.8m in 2021… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Speaking at the annual Travlaw Big Tent Event in London, UK Inbound CEO Joss Croft said ‘the biggest impact of Brexit has been around mobility.’ He says ‘in 2013 we ranked 11th in the world for our welcome. We are now 18th. I’m not saying that is all due to Brexit, but it’s a fact that people felt they wouldn’t be welcome.’ Hotelier House of Gods is set to open its second Scottish hotel in Glasgow later this year. UK Border Force has suggested that further industrial action could be scheduled to impact Half Term holidays later this month. OTHER LEISURE: Facebook, WhatsApp & Instagram owner Meta yesterday reported Q4 numbers showing a 55% drop in profits… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. FINANCE & MARKETS: S&P has produced its UK manufacturing PMI for January saying the index stood at 47.0, up from the 31mth low of 45.3 and ahead of the flash estimate of 46.7… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Nationwide has produced its HPI for January showing that prices fell 0.6% in the month. Year-on-year, prices are up 1.1%. They were running at +2.8% in the year to December and prices are now 3.2% below their August peak. For that average home-owner, that… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The IFS’s Paul Johnson has told the BBC’s Today Programme that a number of special factors including a shortage of workers, high mortgage costs and the impact of Brexit are holding back the UK economy. As expected, the Fed yesterday raised rates by 25bps to 4.50-4.75%. The Bank of England and the ECB will update later today. Sterling mixed at $1.2391 and €1.1248. Oil down at $83.38. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 3.33%. World markets mixed to better yesterday and London set to open up 28pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. 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