RBG H1, GRG FY, PFD upgrade, rail strikes, mortgage costs & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

It’s easy to feel like the Invisible Man in London.

And that’s not just because there are so many people around. Less so on a Monday but, as bikes on the pavement and Zombie pedestrians alike are still wont to walk or cycle into you, it might be that, in the capital at least, one does become invisible.

Or maybe it’s the ‘I’ve got my life to lead and they’ll get out of the way’ approach. That can work. But it’s annoying when you find yourself apologising to people who push you off the pavement. On to the news:

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REVOLUTION BARS:

Revolution Bars Group has this morning reported H1 numbers and our comments are set out below:

Headline numbers: RBG reports total sales in the 6mths of £76.0m against £74.1m in the same period last year. Operating profit is £3.1m (2022: £6.7m) and adjusted EBITDA is £9.8m against £12.2m. The loss before tax is £0.1m against a profit last year of £4.3m. The group reports debt of £18.5m against cash of £4.2m last year…

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Rail strikes:

Per the BBC, the Rail Delivery Group has written to the RMT union saying that if the latest offer is not put to union members in a vote, national level talks may not resume…

Inflation & wage pressures:

Costa Coffee is increasing hourly wages in its 1,520 company-owned estate by between 6.1-7.3%. From 1 April, base pay rates for its baristas will increase from £10 to at least £10.70 per hour, while barista team leaders will increase from £10.53 to at least £11.23 per hour.

Footfall:

Springboard has reported on footfall for the week to 4 March saying that it was down by around 11.8% on the same week in 2019…

Other news:

Consumer magazine Which has suggested that around 15% of people are now skipping meals because of the rising cost of living. The number was 12% three months ago, Which says. It adds that 72% of people are putting their heating on less and 19% have cooked fewer meals.

Asahi has suggested that there is a ‘£32m opportunity’ for convenience stores to sell no and low alcohol beers…

Discounting. Not much in evidence but some of M&B’s Vintage Inns are offering 50% off mains this week until Thursday.

UKH has called on OFGEM to ‘immediately intervene in the non-domestic energy market as businesses struggle with extortionate costs and a looming reduction in Government support.’ UKH has written to Grant Shapps, calling on OFGEM to take suppliers to task and to extend for three months the Energy Bill Relief Scheme for vulnerable sectors…

In the US, NPD has reported that the number of restaurants across the States has risen by 18,000 when compared with 2020 (September on September two years prior). It says costs are up by around 18.2% over the same period.

Licensing Act Consultation: UKH has said that ‘the proposals from the Home Office to make permanent a number of temporary measures introduced during the pandemic are overwhelmingly positive and we strongly urge the Government to do so…

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Heineken UK’s Cider Report shows that more than half of cider drinkers are 18-34 years old. Cider is the second most popular drinks category (after beer) in the UK on-trade, creating over £1.5bn of sales annually. The report also found that 73% of cider drinkers are willing to premiumise when purchasing their drink.

A report by the NTIA claims that around 1 in 4 independent night-time economy businesses are at risk of ‘being lost’ in the next 6 months…

WHEN WILL MORTGAGE RISES IMPACT CONSUMER SPENDING?

We ran this pre-Christmas with clients. It remains topical:

Summary: The answer, as is so often the case, is ‘it depends’. Interest rate rises are intended to depress spending. Whilst interest costs basically move funds from borrowers to lenders – and therefore they should be zero sum in theory – this is not how it works in practise…

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COMPANY NEWS:

Gregg’s has reported FY numbers to end-December saying that total sales rose 23% to £1.5bn with LfL sales up 17.8% on the prior year. PBT is up 1.9% to £148.3m with EPS of 117.5p (vs 114.3p) and a total dividend for the year of 59p against 57p in FY21…

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Silver lining. Premier Foods, which can sometimes be seen as the flip side to what’s happening in the eating out market, has upgraded expectations. It says ‘the Group has continued to trade strongly in recent weeks, bringing the momentum it delivered in quarter 3 into the final quarter of the year. Accordingly, it now expects revenue growth in Q4 to be at least 10% ahead of the prior year…’

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Per Sky, Gousto CEO Timo Boldt is facing criticism from shareholders for taking part in a heavily discounted fundraising while excluding some of his longest-standing backers from the deal. Earlier this year Mr Boldt acquired shares at a company valuation of less than £300m, having sold a chunk of his stake at a $1.7bn valuation just 13 months ago.

Thorley Taverns reports revenue of £13.4m for the year ended 30 June 2022, up from £6.7m in the prior period…

The Inn Collection has added the Links Hotel in Seahouses to its portfolio. MD Sean Donkin says ‘we are very happy to have acquired The Links in Seahouses and to have worked with Christie & Co again after doing so on last year’s purchase of the St Kilda Hotel in Llandudno…’

Gordon Ramsay Restaurants will reopen its newly-acquired Pizza East in Shoreditch on 15th March.

Hogs Back brewery has launched Little Ginger Swine, a low alcohol craft ale, to its Little Swine portfolio. Little Ginger Swine joins Little Swine 2.8% and Little Swine 0.5% in Hogs Back’s expanding range of low alcohol beers.

Monster Beverage Corporation has launched The Beast Unleashed, a 6% ABV hard seltzer in flavours such as Peach Perfect and Scary Berries. In January 2022, Monster paid$330m to acquire CANarchy, a company that owns several breweries including Oskar Blues and Deep Ellum Brewing Company.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

A study by the CBI on behalf of the BTA has found that corporate travel was worth more than £27bn to the UK economy last year and accounted for more than 283,000 full-time jobs. The survey found 50% of international business trips were for meetings with existing or potential clients, with the report suggesting in-person contact promotes increased trust and stronger working relationships.

OTHER LEISURE:

Tesla is reported to have once again cut the price of its cars in order to stimulate demand.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sir James Dyson, who supported Brexit, has criticised the government saying ‘is it any wonder that the economy is teetering on recession, or that companies like AstraZeneca are deciding to take their investment elsewhere?;

UK car sales rose by 25% last month as supply issues eased.

Manufacturers’ group Make UK has said that Brexit and the difficult relationship with the EU have made doing business more difficult. Make UK’s Stephen Phipson says ‘we need to reset our political and trading relationship with the EU which has been marked by such rancour.’

Sterling mixed at $1.2035 and €1.1262. Oil up at $86.47. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 3.86%. World markets broadly better yesterday. London set to open up around 11pts.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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