Feb Tracker, footfall, inflation, trains, Visit England, PSNB & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Meteorological spring might have arrived three weeks ago but, for those hung up on the equinox, today is the day from which days will be longer than nights, and we’re into spring whichever way you cut it.

Despite the fact that we’ll lose an hour in bed next weekend, that’s good and, with our part of the earth now definitively tilted toward the sun, those brightly-lit uplands must surely be within reach. We’ll keep telling ourselves that, anyway and, in the meantime, we’ll keep a sharp eye on the cash-flow. On to the news:

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FEBRUARY TRACKER:

Summary: CGA’s February Tracker reports that ‘pubs, restaurants and bars grow sales again in February but battle soaring costs.’ It says trading has recorded year-on-year growth for the fifth month in a row but says that this still lags inflation. CGA is not kidding as sales were up 3.9% with CPI (which will be released tomorrow) of nearer 10%.

The Tracker puts it starkly, saying the ‘figure [of 3.9%] is substantially down from 10.1% in January and is well below the current rate of inflation in the UK.’ The Tracker maintains that ‘pubs and London outpace restaurants and regions…’

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trade, footfall etc.:

Lumina’s  latest Eating and Drinking Out Panel has found that the frequency of visits in the eating and drinking out sector is down 7% YoY for the 4 weeks to 19 Feb…

Springboard reports that footfall was up 1.4% YoY for the week ending 18 March, despite being impacted by strike action.

The consumer:

Mortgage costs up. London Money reports that average mortgage repayments have risen 27% for borrowers whose deals ended between September and February, with average monthly repayments up £317.50 a month on a loan of about £325k…

Some good news on prices: Morrisons is cutting its prices for the third time in three months…

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Labour & staff issues:

MCA’s Food to Go Conference revealed that operators are finding that challenges around the recruitment of enough staff are easing….

Train strikes.

Signal workers and maintenance staff belonging to the RMT union have voted to accept a pay offer from Network Rail. However, RMT members who work for the 14 train operating companies that run the UK’s trains are still set to walk out on 30 March and 1 April. RMT general secretary Mick Lynch says re the operating company dispute, ‘the ball is in the government’s court.’

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Inflation (in its various guises)

Shrinkflation. The Telegraph reports that Unilever’s Magnum ‘has cut the number of ice creams sold in its multipacks despite the price staying the same for shoppers…’

Inflation, early signals. Whilst all eyes are usually on the cost of oil and energy prices, it is interesting to note Wynnstay this morning comment that ‘while input pricing pressures are decreasing, some farmgate prices are also reducing…’

Other news:

USA trading. CGA comments on trading in the on-trade in the US saying ‘traffic and check value have followed a similar pattern over the latest couple of weeks, with both up +1% in the most recent week’ being the week toe 11 March.

Sacha Lord has praised the fact that footfall in Manchester has returned to pre-pandemic levels saying ‘I am pleased city centre tourism is performing well and this data proves the strength and attraction of Greater Manchester as a whole…’

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COMPANY NEWS:

Laxman Narasimhan has taken over as the CEO of Starbucks 2 weeks earlier than planned, as interim CEO Howard Schultz steps down. According to Starbucks, Narasimhan officially joined the company on October 1, and has spent the last five months learning on the job in various capacities.

Amazon is to cut another 9,000 having cut 18,000 positions in January. Admittedly, the company employs some 1.5 million people worldwide.

Turtle Bay is opening its 48th site. The unit will be in London’s Hammersmith.

Fulham Shore’s the Real Greek is to open a unit in the Silverburn shopping centre in Glasgow this week.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Parkdean Resorts has expressed its support to VisitEngland’s English Tourism Week saying that that the tourism industry ‘is a major employer of school leavers and young people, and as a business that champions and employs thousands of young people…’

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OTHER LEISURE:

Sony claims Microsoft’s $68.7bn acquisition of Activision Blizzard could lead to the company lessening Call of Duty’s popularity on PlayStation consoles by stealth…

TikTok. The BBC has become the latest employer to urge staff to delete TikTok from any corporate devices. The BBC tells staff ‘we don’t recommend installing TikTok on a BBC corporate device unless there is a justified business reason. If you do not need TikTok for business reasons, TikTok should be deleted….’

As many as eight bids are expected for Manchester United before the deadline for second offers expires on Wednesday, reports Sky. Sky says ‘based on the level of first-round bids, there are no favourites at the moment, although one could emerge after Wednesday evening’s deadline.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS has updated on public sector net borrowing saying that, in February 2023, it was ‘£16.7 billion, £9.7 billion more than February 2022 and the highest February borrowing since monthly records began in 1993, largely because of substantial spending on energy support schemes…’

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Per Sky, the government is thought likely to push ahead with banking deregulation. This may not be the wisest time to push this free-market agenda…

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Make UK & BDO report that the manufacturing sector bounced back at the start of the year, but warn that the industry is still forecast to shrink by 3.3% this year before returning to marginal growth of 0.8% next year.

Rightmove reports that average house prices rose by £3k (+0.8%) in March, bringing the average value of a home on the market to £365k. The property website said this reflects a market ‘on a much more stable footing than many anticipated’.

The DUP has said that the ‘Windsor Framework does not deal with some of the fundamental problems at the heart of our current difficulties…’

Sri Lanka has been granted a $3bn bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Sterling up at $1.2259 and €1.1437. Oil price up at $73.11. UK 10yr gilt yield up 2bps at 3.30%. World markets better yesterday & London set to open up around 20pts.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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