Langton Capital – 2023-03-22 – Inflation (up again), Fever Tree, TEG, Hostelworld, holidays, rates & other:
Inflation (up again), Fever Tree, TEG, Hostelworld, holidays, rates & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: So, here’s a question for you, how old does rubbish have to be before it’s interesting rather than, well, just rubbish? Not an easy one but we can pin it down in terms of timing as, whilst a worn out pair of Roman shoes would be interesting, an empty bottle of beer from last week would not be. So, that’s a range of around 2,000 years. But we can to better than that. The Jorvic Centre in York, for example, firmly believes a piece of Viking poo, rich in intestinal worms, is ‘interesting’ but I equally firmly believe that what’s in our septic tank is not. Now we’re down to 1,000 years or so. Reducing it much further is still possible as I’ve got an empty bottle we found in the garden from 100 years ago that is kind of interesting. It’s a) likely proof that earlier inhabitants of our house simply adopted the ‘open window and tip’ method of waste disposal and b) it’s some kind of snake-oil balm or tincture, for all I know rich in lead, arsenic and mercury, that you were probably meant to rub on your tongue and which is likely banned under the Geneva Convention. Nonetheless, it has some provenance whilst last week’s dog good tins do not. Anyway, the answer’s probably about 50yrs so let’s move on. Here’s the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Inflation: Surprise rise in inflation. The ONS has today reported CPI numbers for the month of February, saying that it rose to an annual rate of 10.4% in the month, up from 10.1% in the year to January. It… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Consumer magazine Which? has reported that the price of some food ‘basics’ have increased by more than 100% in the last 12mths… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Recent trading: The Oxford Partnership reports in its On Trade Performance Report that St Patrick’s Day proved to be the biggest day of this mega weekend, with the average pub selling 427 pints and 2.7m pints of stout being sold across the UK. Super Saturday, which saw the culmination of the Guinness Six Nations 2023 saw 389 pints sold, and Mother’s Day on Sunday saw a total of 7.9m pints sold. Increased dwell time: Loungers is opening four Brightside units. It believes it will be a more contemporary roadside offering. It also suggests that, as electric vehicles become more numerous, dwell time will rise and roadside venues (particularly those that can offer charge-points) will become more popular. Moto Hospitality CEO Ken McMeikan told MCA’s Food to Go Conference earlier this month that ‘we’re going through a major transformation last seen before any of us were born – you would need to be over 100 when this last happened.’ He says ‘EV divers will stop more. If you can have a 50% increase in the number of customers visiting your brand, I think you’d be pretty pleased. That’s 1.5 times more frequent then when driving diesel or unleaded…’ Support for tourism: UKH has commented on the publication of the Tourism Recovery Plan Update Report, saying ‘we are pleased to see that today’s Update Report shows that the Government recognises the significance of the tourism sector for the UK economy and the specific challenges it faces… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Supermarkets: Tesco has announced that it is to cut the value of its Clubcard rewards scheme by around a third from 14 June… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. The cost of capital. This may sound boring but, when the cost of capital rises, less gets done. That’s why interest are used to dampen demand. The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse at the weekend could have an impact on the above… COMPANY NEWS: Fevertree has reported full year results to the end-of December last saying revenues rose to £344.3m from £311.1m last year with an adjusted EBITDA of £39.7m, down from £63.0m in the prior year. The company had released revenue numbers on 26 January. Today, the company updates further and says that EPS is down by 44% at 21.3p but the dividend for the year rises by 2% to 16.31p. Fevertree says ‘industry-wide inflationary pressures impacted the Group’s gross margin, most notably in glass costs and trans-Atlantic freight costs, these were partially mitigated by positive pricing actions and improvements in sales mix…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Stonegate reports sales of £1.6bn in the year ended 25 September 2022, with EBITDA up to £465m compared to £151m the year prior… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. British Honey has announced it will require further funding by the end of March 2023 if it is to continue trading. The company has filed notice of its intention to appoint administrators with its shares to be suspended on AQUIS… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Just Eat Takeaway.com is to axe 1,700 jobs as it ceases to employ its delivery riders and drivers. The service said it will use entirely gig economy workers to deliver food in the UK, as opposed to the hybrid system of employees and self-employed workers… Small Batch Coffee has closed three sites, with its two remaining sites located in Goldstone Villas, near Hove station, and its Wellington House café and roastery in Camden Street, Portslade. According to The Argus, Small Batch Coffee Company Ltd faced a winding-up order from creditors Pemberton’s Letting Agents Brighton for arrears of £11,250.88. Drinks Business reports that Pernod Ricard USA has acquired a majority stake in peanut butter flavoured American whiskey brand Skrewball for an undisclosed sum. Patch, a company that seeks to transform empty or neglected buildings into a network of community work-spaces, is seeking to raise £3m in funding. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Hostelworld has reported full year numbers to end-December saying that full year bookings were up 228% at 4.8m with net revenue of €69.7m, up from €16.9m. the company reports EBITDA of €1.3m (2021: loss €17.3m) and says it generated an operating loss of €13.6m against an operating loss of €33.1m in the prior year… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Business Travel News reports that rising hotel costs have propelled London to the no3 slot in Europe when it comes to the total cost of a business trip. Only Geneva and Zurich are more expensive… Global travel technology company OYO has reported that its UK operations saw a 140% uplift in revenue or Gross Booking Value (GBV) in 2022 to now stand ahead of pre-pandemic levels of 2019. OYO says London is the best performing market. OTHER LEISURE: Ten Entertainment has reported full year numbers for the 53wks to 1 January saying that total sales rose from £67.5m to £126.7m to stand some 50.6% ahead of the pre-Covid year to Dec 2019. LfL sales growth was 5.5% with PBT for the year of £34.0m against £4.4m last year and £11.8m in FY19. TEG reports adjusted EPS of 29.3p, up from 5.9p (2019: 19.3p) and says that it has moved from £10.1m of debt last year to a net cash position… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Dream Games, the Istanbul-based games company behind Royal Match, is to open an office in central London. The company has a reported value of around $2.75 billion. Twitter. The BBC reports that ‘hate is thriving under Twitter’s new owner’. Elon Musk himself has tweeted ‘sorry for turning Twitter from nurturing paradise into a place that has… trolls.’ He says ‘trolls are kinda fun.’ FINANCE & MARKETS: For UK CPI numbers, see Pubs & Restaurants above. The Bank of England and the ECB have criticised the decision by Switzerland’s bank regulator to favour equity over a tranche of Credit Suisse’s bonds (see above). The ECB says Switzerland has not followed the bailout hierarchy established after the financial crisis. Former member of its MPC David Blanchflower has said that the Bank of England should cut interest rates and pause Quantitative Tightening. The Bank will update on UK interest rates tomorrow. In the US, the Fed will comment today. Rightmove has suggested that London property prices fell 0.1% in February. The ERG has labelled key elements of PM Rishi Sunak’s Windsor Framework as “practically useless”. Sterling weaker at $1.2234 and €1.1354. Oil up at $74.69. UK 10yr gilt yield up 6bps at 3.36%. World markets better yesterday & London set to open up around 10pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. |
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