Langton Capital – 2023-03-23 – C&C (downgrade), SHEP, rail strikes, inflation, Playtech & other:
C&C (downgrade), SHEP, rail strikes, inflation, Playtech & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Having recently pinged left and right on the Elizabeth Line a few times recently, we took the Northern Line up to Belsize Park earlier in the week. And that, it has to be said, proved to be a bit of a contrast because, apart from the shaking and the rattling and the squashing etc the noise was such that I couldn’t hear myself think and it took be half an hour or so to get my hearing back. To those who don’t come to London often we’d suggest that, though the Northern Line does offer a kind of authentic London experience, so does being hit on the pavement by a food delivery cyclist and it’s not one that you should necessarily rush to have. Anyway, two of my bete noirs out there at once. On to the news. LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN sent separately 23 May 23: SHEPHERD NEAME – H1 NUMBERS: Shepherd Neame has reported H1 numbers for the 26wks to 24 December and our comments thereon are set out below: Headline numbers: Shepherd Neame reports revenue for the period up 8.4% at £85.3m (H1-22: £78.7m). The group reports statutory PBT of £5.5m (H1-22: £5.4m). It reports basic EPS of 28.9p, in line with H1-22. SHEP has announced a H1 dividend of 4.00p (H1-22: 3.50p) and NAV of 1212p (H1-22: 1176p). Key takeaways: Inflation still a major issue, wet sales > food, London recovery strong, accommodation easing back, tenancies OK, beer volumes slightly down. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Inflation: ONS data yesterday has it that UK food and non-alcoholic drinks prices are currently rising at their fastest rate in 45 years with prices up 18.2% on the prior year (up from 16.8% in the year to January)… Expectations maybe abating. The CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey shows that manufacturers’ expectations for average selling price inflation eased markedly in March (+25%, from +40%) to their weakest since March 2021… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Industry response: UKHospitality CEO Kate Nicholls has responded to the ONS’ surprise CPI figure of 10.4% for February by saying ‘If the Government is serious about bringing inflation under control quickly then it therefore needs to address this cost of doing business in the sector… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Rail strikes suspended: In what should come as a major relief to hospitality companies, particularly those in London and a number of other large cities, planned rail strikes in March and April have been called off. The RMT union has announced that its members working at 14 train companies will now not strike on 30 March and 1 April…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. The High Street: A survey by trade body Revo and property consultant Lambert Smith Hampton has suggested that up to 40% of shops will need to be re-purposed over the next five years. The process, of course, already seems to be underway… Other news: Trading: Lumina Intelligence reports that average spend for the breakfast occasion increased by 16%, to £8.33, in the 12 weeks to 19 February 2023. However, participation and frequency of visits at breakfast were down, -0.2ppts and -3ppts, respectively. The other two segments, lunch and dinner, grew at the slower respective rates of +6% and +11%. COMPANY NEWS: C&C to miss profit estimates. C&C has updated on trading ahead of reporting its full year numbers to 28 Feb 23. The company says it ‘expects to report net revenues of approximately €1,685m in FY2023, an increase of 18% on FY2022, with volumes expected to be +4%.’ It adds that it ‘expects to report a FY2023 operating profit of €84m for the period compared to a reported operating profit of €48m in FY2022.’ C&C reports ‘this outcome reflects a number of factors… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. The Daily Mail reports that Fever-Tree Drinks plans to raise product prices and ramp up US production… Independent coffee roaster 200 Degrees is opening a coffee shop and barista school in the heart of Chester in May. The coffee shop will be 200 Degrees’ 19th UK venue and its third in the Northwest – with shops in Liverpool and Manchester. Whitbread’s Bar + Block it to open its latest unit, in Birmingham, to take its estate up to 21 sites nationwide. This will be Bar + Block’s second unit in Birmingham. Papa John’s CFO Ann Gugino has resigned. Ms Gugino will remain with the company to 31 May in order to manage a transition of her role. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Global hotel consultancy HVS reports that hotel values across Europe rose around 3% in 2022 with Paris, London, Zurich, Amsterdam and Rome remaining those with the highest valued hotels… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Railway demand. CEO of travel management company Clarity, Pat McDonagh, told the BTA that ‘The confidence of business travel in the railways is shot to pieces because of the timetable and industrial action. We need rail to recover, but without an end to the industrial action, without the timetable coming back and punctuality improving, it is very difficult for confidence to return.’ OTHER LEISURE: Playtech has reported full year numbers to end-2022 saying that revenue was up 33% at €1.6bn, adjusted EBITDA was up 28% at €405.6m and adjusted EPS was up by 26% at 51.5c…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Moore Large, a Derby-based bike distributor, has collapsed into administration, pointing the finger at inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, supply chain issues and dampened consumer demand. John Pye & Sons has been brought in to put stock and assets up for sale, including bikes and cycling accessories with a retail value of £35m. Music licensing marketplace SphereTrax has secured £250k in pre-seed funding in a round led by Jenson Funding Partners. SphereTrax is a platform for artists to upload tracks that top industry professionals, from filmmakers and trailer makers to ad agencies and games companies, use to place music in on-screen and immersive content. Sky reports that the deadline for bids on Manchester United has been extended ‘as the top two contenders prepare to submit their offers.’ It says that ‘Qatar’s Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad and rival bidder, British billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe, had both submitted requests for more time to fine-tune their submissions for Manchester United ahead of the original deadline.’ FINANCE & MARKETS: Commenting on yesterday’s UK CPI numbers, the BCC says the ‘unexpected rise in the CPI rate to 10.4% indicates that the UK economy is still in the midst of a stubborn peak… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Official data shows that the number of UK property transactions fell by 4% last month. Sales of residential properties were down by 18% in the year to February. The US Federal Reserve last night announced that it would raise rates by 25bp to a range of between 4.75% and 5.00%. The UK’s MPC announces at lunchtime today. Sterling up at $1.2324 and €1.1297. Oil higher at $76.04. UK 10yr gilt yield creeping back up at 3.46% (up 10bps on yesterday). Markets mixed yesterday & London set to open down around 18pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. |
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