Langton Capital – 2023-03-24 – JDW (H1 numbers), TUI, GAW, CINE. Interest rates, confidence etc.:
JDW (H1 numbers), TUI, GAW, CINE. Interest rates, confidence etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: In the wake of the Credit Suisse debacle, where bond holders were subordinated to equity by a finance body that had actually read the small print and decided that it meant something, we thought we’d have a quick squint at the bond market because, in the end, how complicated could it be? Principle amount, coupon, longevity and that’s it, right? Wrong. We looked at a couple at random and, as the first one we came across was entitled a 6.125% Fixed Rate Resetting Perpetual Subordinated Contingent Convertible Security, we immediately gave up. Know your limits, we thought. Because who wants a task like the above spilling over onto a Friday? Anyway, have a great weekend and let’s move on to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN JD WETHERSPOON – H1 NUMBERS: JD Wetherspoon has today reported H1 results and our comments thereon are set out below: Headline numbers: JDW reports LfL sales up 5.0% in the half year with revenues of £916m vs £890m in FY19. The company reports PBT of £4.6m against H1 profits of £50.3m in the pre-Covid FY19. Free cash flow per share is 132.4p (FY19: 69.4p), EPS is 1.0p (FY19, when there were fewer shares in issue: 38.3p) and there is no first half dividend (FY19: 4.0p). The above numbers are before ‘separately disclosed items’. These comprise a number of issues, the largest being negatives due to the impairment of values and losses on disposal alongside a £65.1m credit on the termination of the group’s interest… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. INTEREST RATE HIKES & REACTION: Bank puts up rates: The Bank of England has upped its bank base rate to 4.25% from 4.00%. The MPC voted 7-2. The dissenting members wished to retain rates at 4.00%… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Commenting on GDP, the Bank of England says ‘GDP is still likely to have been broadly flat around the turn of the year, but is now expected to increase slightly in the second quarter, compared with the 0.4% decline anticipated in the February Report.’ The Bank says ‘the labour market has remained tight.’ It comments on inflation, saying that, despite the recent rise, ‘CPI inflation is still expected to fall significantly… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Reaction to the interest rate rise. Anna Leach, Deputy Chief Economist at the CBI, says the decision whether or not to raise rates ‘was a tricky one for the MPC… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Reaction: The BCC says ‘record high inflation remains the top issue of concern for SMEs, and it has been wiping out their ability to invest and grow for almost two years now…’ PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Consumer confidence: GfK has released its monthly UK consumer confidence indicator for March saying the overall measure rose by two points to minus 36. The majority of consumers remain negative about the outlook and GfK says there is ‘no spring in the financial steps of UK consumers…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Directors and Covid support. The Rating (Coronavirus) and Directors Disqualification (Dissolved Companies) Act has now passed into law. It is designed to stop directors dissolving companies to avoid investigation into their conduct and should make it easier to investigate and prosecute directors…. The consumer: The search for value: Lumina Intelligence reports that consumer value in the pubs and bars sector has grown by 19% YoY to £2.4m in the 12 weeks ending 19 February 2023. Average consumer spend increased by 4% during this period while average penetration change grew 1%… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Demographics: The Department for Work and Pensions has released figures showing 3% of families (2.1m people) in the UK used a food bank in the year to March 2022…. Other news: Sustainability. Over 60% of consumers believe coffee shops rely too much on single-use plastic packaging, with measures such as removing plastic straws, proper recycling, and introducing reusable cup schemes are seen as effective solutions…. Costs: The BBPA warns that the average pub is facing an £18k increase in its yearly energy bill… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Big Days: Research from Star Pubs & Bars predicts that 75% of Brits will head to a pub on the weekend of the King’s coronation 6-8 May…. COMPANY NEWS: Primark will open four new ‘Tasty by Greggs’ cafes in its stores in the next three months. The Greggs are set to open in the Newcastle, Bristol, Liverpool and Leeds stores before the end of July. Sodexo has partnered with SV365 Technologies to deliver the 24/7 Deli – an automated vending machine – to hospitals in the UK, with the first 24/7 Deli expected to go live in a major acute hospital in the coming month. The machine will enable hospitals to meet the needs of staff and visitors with a wide choice of food and drinks available on demand. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: TUI has reported that is to issue new shares to raise gross proceeds of c.€1.8 billion. It today reports that ‘328,910,448 New ordinary registered Shares with no par value of the Company will be offered at a subscription ratio of 8:3 (8 New Shares for 3 existing shares).’ TUI reports ‘the subscription price of €5.55 per New Share represents a discount to TERP (theoretical ex-rights price) of approx. 39.85%.’ Accommodation: UKH Cymru has called for Welsh Government to use a new statutory licensing scheme to create a “level playing field” between established serviced accommodation businesses and the short-term let sector… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. The latest GO Technology report from hospitality tech provider Zonal and insight firm CGA by NielsenIQ has found that 81% of UK consumers are planning to stay in a UK hotel in 2023. A further 39% said they’d be ‘staycationing’ simply because they would prefer to travel within the UK rather than abroad this year, up 12% from 2022. Atas reports that its membership numbers have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels as supplier members report ‘really, really strong’ results for the last 5 months of 2022. Claire Brighton, Atas account director, said ‘There are still restrictions in some of our key destinations so it’s not a like-for-like comparison but we are performing really well’. OTHER LEISURE: Games Workshop Group PLC has updated on trading saying that ‘trading in the three months to the end of February 2023 has been in line with expectations….’ Cineworld has announced that a general meeting of the Company will be held on 20 April 2023. It reports that this is as a result of a “serious loss of capital” that has triggered the requirement to meet with shareholders… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Gym Group yesterday announced that ‘further to the Company’s announcement on 12 January 2023, Richard Darwin will step down as Chief Executive and leave the Board of Directors with effect from close of business on 24 March 2023. It adds that Richard will remain available to support the Company as required until July 2023. Kindred Group, the online gambling company, saw its shares fall by 2% early on Thursday… FINANCE & MARKETS: UK interest rate hikes – see above. The FT suggests that the security of commercial property loans are becoming an issue for US banks. Weekly unemployment claims in the US fell in the week to 11 March, pointing to continued strength in the jobs market. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned businesses that if they put up prices then interest rates may have to rise further. He told Radio 4 ‘if all prices try to beat inflation we will get higher inflation.’ Bailey, who had maintained that inflation was transient, now says ‘higher inflation really benefits nobody.’ He adds ‘it hurts people, and it particularly hurts the least well-off in society.’ Sterling mixed at $1.2286 and €1.1338. Oil lower at $75.86. UK 10yr bond yield down 9bps at 3.37%. World markets mixed yesterday & Far East down in Friday trade. London set to open down around 47pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. |
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