AG Barr, Carnival, Diageo, Team17, Travelodge, prices, costs & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We dug a hole in the garden over the weekend and it filled with water.

Not immediately, though.

Because the earth here is pretty much 99% clay but, having left the hole somewhat damp when the sun went down, by the morning, the 1% of the mud lining that wasn’t made up of clay had let the water in and the 50cm deep hole was full to within 10cm of the top.

Meaning that the water table our neck of the woods must be little more than a finger’s length below ground level.

And that there must be countless millions of tons of the stuff, much of it in our garden, simply stuck in the mud and moving at glacial speed towards whichever ditch, dike or beck is closest to it.

This time of year, it is what it is. On to the news:

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CARNIVAL – Q1 NUMBERS:

Carnival yesterday afternoon reported Q1 numbers and our comments thereon are set out below: Headline numbers: Q1 revenue was $4.4bn, some 95% of 2019 levels. CCL announces a U.S. GAAP net loss of $693 million, or $(0.55) diluted EPS, and adjusted net loss of $690 million, or $(0.55) adjusted EPS for the quarter.’ It…

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The consumer

PwC has examined ONS data and concluded that household debt has risen to above £2 trillion for the first time ever. It says it suggests that consumers are using credit to maintain their living standards….

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Trading:

DesignMyNight has suggested that there will be 480,000 bookings across hospitality venues for the May Bank Holiday. A spokesperson for the company said ‘If hospitality is to capture its share of increased spending over the Coronation weekend, advance tickets will be an important tool for hospitality operators’.

Springboard has updated on footfall saying that it was down by 23.4% last week in 2023 compared with 2019. It says ‘footfall across all UK retail destinations declined from the week before last. This is not a surprising result considering the rise in footfall in the week before last which followed a drop in footfall in the week before that…

The latest CGA by NIQ’s Drinks Recovery Tracker shows that sales during the seven days to Saturday 18 March were -2% YoY. Rail strikes on 16 March delivered a -26% YoY blow to sales in town and city centres. St Patrick’s Day on 17 March saw sales up 15% YoY.

Recent corporate results have seen companies benefitting from soft Omicron comparatives despite the last year’s VAT benefit falling away…

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The CBI yesterday updated on the retail sector saying that ‘retail sales volumes are expected to return to growth next month for the first time since September 2022, following broadly unchanged sales in the year to March…’

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Accommodation:

Stay in a Pub has released its 2023 Pub Accommodation Research saying that optimism is returning to the sector. It says ‘60% of consumers who took part in the research claimed that the main reason to stay in a pub is that it represents good value for money.’ it adds that ‘59% of those who have not stayed in a pub before said they would consider it if they knew where to look’ and ‘60% of those who have stayed in a pub in the last 24 month say that they prefer a pub stay versus other types of accommodation for the same spend and location compared to 53% in 2019….’

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Prices:

The BRC has reported that higher costs of sugar, chocolate, sweets and fizzy drinks have helped push food price inflation to 15% in the year to March – up from 14.5% in the year to February….

Delivery:

Delivery out of home occasion share has more than halved since February 2021, going from 32% to just 15% in April 2022. However, Lumina Intelligence forecasts the delivery market will be worth £14.4bn in 2023 and grow at +7.8% YoY…

COMPANY NEWS:

AG Barr has reported full year numbers to end-January saying that revenue rose by 18.2% compared with last year to £317.6m. it reports an adjusted PBT up 5.2% at £44.4m with reported EPS up 21.4% 30.47p. The dividend for the full year is up 9.2% at 13.1p.’ It says that margins will contract in the short term…

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Diageo reports that ‘Sir Ivan Menezes has decided to retire as Chief Executive Officer and depart from the Diageo Board on 30 June 2023, following ten successful years leading the Company.’ It adds that ‘Debra Crew, currently Chief Operating Officer, will be appointed Chief Executive Officer and join the Diageo Board, effective 1 July 2023….’

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Manchester-based family brewers JW Lees has announced that ‘Simon Townsend, former CEO of EI Group plc, will join its board as a non-executive director in April 2023…’

Mark Anthony Group has launched White Claw Premium Vodka, calling it the world’s first ‘Triple Wave Filtered’ vodka.  The ‘Triple Wave’ filtered vodka is available in four varieties, classic, at 40% ABV, and Mango, Black Cherry and Pineapple, at 30% ABV.

Independent record store Rough Trade is partnering with Signature Brew in order to serve beverages exclusively on draught to Rough Trade customers at the record store’s East London, Bristol, and Nottingham locations.    

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

London Resort Company Holdings has appointed Antony Batty & Company to restructure its finances through a CVA. The company was set to begin construction of The London Resort theme park in 2022, with its initial opening due for 2024.

A planned 10dy strike by some Heathrow security workers has led to British Airways cancelling around 32 flights a day to and from Heathrow Airport at the start of the Easter holidays.

Travelodge, which currently operates around 600 hotels, has said that it has room for another 300 or so across the UK. It is writing to 220 Local Authorities across Britain proposing development in their areas.

OTHER LEISURE:

Elon Musk is reported to have said that Twitter is worth less than half of what he paid for it six months ago. The social media platform may have lost more than $20bn in value.

Games company Team17 has reported full year numbers to end-December saying that revenues were up by 52% in the year to “137.4m with PBT down by 1% at £28.7m…

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Entain reports it ‘has been selected by TAB New Zealand as its preferred partner for a 25-year strategic arrangement.’ CEO of Entain Australia Dean Shannon says ‘this is a unique opportunity to shape the future wagering experience for customers and to support New Zealand’s racing and sporting industries…’

CVC Capital Partners and Elliott Management are reported to have bid for parts of cinema group Cineworld. Neither party is thought to have bid for Cineworld’s UK or US businesses.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The CEBR has pointed out that stagnation in the UK economy is a major issue. It says ‘the problem of dealing with stagnation existed even before the banking crisis became apparent. Since then, with liquidity now in short supply, the issue is even more pertinent.’ It says the chancellor’s ‘costly plans for increasing the size of the labour force’ will only add around 0.25% to GDP.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has said that the UK banking system is “resilient.” He may well be right but he also said that inflation was transient….

Sterling up at $1.2314 and €1.1388. Oil higher at $77.74. UK 10yr gilt yield up 9bps at 3.38%. World markets better yesterday and London set to open up around 22pts higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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