Labour issues, trading, DGE, Pret, train strikes & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

A day off from driving yesterday but, if I had ever thought using trains & other forms of public transport would be somehow less stressful, I was sadly mistaken.

We’re in Italy and, this perhaps being the country that it is, the transport system, though it’s to be honest been working pretty well, is subject to short term changes and closures without notice, at least to non-Italian speakers.

Yesterday saw more of the same but Sunday took the biscuit (so far), in that we were physically unable to cross a road for half an hour – and unable to move in any direction, really, due to the crowds – because of an impending bike race.

Then we had to cope with a tube station closure, a redirect to another station, an inability to cross the road again (this was 6 or 7 hours later) because of the same bike race followed by a monstrously overcrowded tube station, a crazy queue for Metro tickets, more delays and then a missed train.

But, as they say, when in Rome. No point in busting a blood vessel when dinner lasts till 3pm and tea can run from 6pm to midnight. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Access to labour:

The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) is being urged by UKHospitality to add chefs to the Shortage Occupation List, in order to alleviate persistent shortages…

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Trading:

The Oxford Partnership reports that the number of pints of draught beer and cider consumed over the bank holiday was up 10.4% YoY to 52.8 million. This is equivalent to an extra +132 pints sold per pub versus the same period in 2022, delivering an £200+ extra in the till.

Wider economy:

The CBI Growth Indicator shows that private sector activity fell to -10%  in the three months to May, down from -7% in the three months to April. This decline marked the 10th consecutive rolling quarter of decline but the sector is set for a rebound as energy prices start to come off.

Other news:

Litty Liquor has had two of its adverts banned by the regulator after they featured photos of the rapper ArrDee tasting rum and drinking with friends in a nightclub, which were ‘likely to encourage excessive consumption of alcohol’.

SOME CLARITY ON COVID:

This is an expanded version of a note that was sent to clients earlier in the year. The theme being that, as time was now passing, the impact of Covid – social, financial, cultural etc – was becoming a little clearer and the ‘new normal’ likewise.

On the other hand, other events, such as the war in Ukraine and the attempt to reverse QE have impacted trade, disaggregating the various factors has become difficult. Nonetheless…

Today, we’ll consider some of those ‘permanent’ changes that maybe flattered to deceive. Increased use of technology, Order at table apps grew rapidly during Covid. It is possible, indeed likely, that their use would have grown in any case – partly…

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COMPANY NEWS:

US rapper Diddy has accused Diageo of breaking the terms of a business partnership because he is black. Diageo says ‘this is a business dispute, and we are saddened that Mr Combs has chosen to recast this matter as anything other than that.’

Pret a Manger has signed an exclusive agreement with Chef Express to launch the brand in Italy. The first restaurant was opened earlier this week in Terminal 2 of the Milan Malpensa airport.

The MCA reports that the Alchemist is set to complete legals for two London sites to open in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. The bar and restaurant group opens a site in Edinburgh next month and has recently opened its first international site in Berlin.

Turtle Bay is to open its 50th site in August, located in Camden, as the group plans to open six sites during 2023. A further opening in Lincoln, in the city’s Cornhill Quarter, is planned for September.

Subway reports UK & Ireland same store sales up 10.5% YoY in Q1, with digital sales up 0.9%. It further said sales have overall tripled on 2019 levels, with the chain achieving its second highest weekly average unit volume in the UK & Ireland on record.

The MCA reports that Martin Williams, CEO of Rare Restaurants, has said that the restaurant group will be an attractive option for a trade buyer or a new private equity investor after strong trading last year. The Gaucho operator appointed advisors Clearwater International to evaluate its strategic options in October 2022.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Aslef states that there was ‘no waning of enthusiasm’ for its members’ intention to strike, with travel on Saturday 3 June, the day of the FA Cup Final set to be disrupted. Members of the RMT will also strike on Friday.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Lloyds’ business barometer has found that UK business confidence declined for the first time in three months, falling five points to 28%. More than half of companies said they planned to raise prices, with the economic environment remaining ‘challenging’.

The US House of Representatives has passed a deal to allow the US to borrow more money, thus avoiding a high profile default.

Sterling up at $1.243 and €1.1636. Oil price down at $72.89. UK 10yr gilt yield down 6bps at 4.18%. World markets down yesterday but Far East up in Thursday trading & London set to open up around 26pts as at 6.30am.

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