Inflation (core rise), May Tracker, RTN, Nichols, C&C, holidays & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Welcome to the longest day of the year and we won’t say it’s all downhill from here.

That the nights are drawing in, that the year’s almost half gone already and that we’re as close to next Christmas as we are to the last. Stuff like that because we know it already and it doesn’t help to be reminded of it so we’ll stick to the news instead.

However, as we seem to be mired in the dog-days of August already and there doesn’t seem to be too much going on out there, there’s not a lot of that. Which could all change rapidly, of course but, for the moment, let’s move on to what there is:

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INFLATION:

A slew of reports out today from commercial operators as well as from the ONS.

ONS comments on CPI in May.

The ONS has released May CPI numbers showing that inflation failed to fall in the month. Prices rose by 8.7% in the year to May (unchanged on the year to April) vs an estimated fall to around 8.3%. The core rate rose. CPI is higher than expected. Watch the bond market. Governor Andrew Bailey has recently come under criticism for getting his analysis wrong…

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Food price inflation:

Kantar reports that annual grocery inflation in Great Britain declined to 16.5% in the four weeks to 11 June, down from 17.2% last month and a record 17.5% in March….

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Input prices: A report by Lloyds Bank suggests that food and drink production costs have fallen for the first time since 2016. The report holds that whilst wage costs have risen at twice the rate of average wages, commodity prices are now down 21% on a year ago…

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

May 2023 – pub & restaurant sales tracker:

The latest Coffer CGA Business Tracker says ‘bumper Bank Holidays help managed pubs, bars and restaurants to 5.6% growth in May.’ Growth is better than contraction but the 5.6%, though like-for-like, is below the rate of inflation. Nonetheless, this is the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year sales growth….

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Cost of living:

The government is set to distribute a direct cost of living payment of £150 to more than 6 million people living with disabilities between 20 June to 4 July.

Levelling up secretary Michael Gove has said that 25-year fixed-rate mortgages could help to solve Britain’s borrowing crisis…

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said that the government would not be introducing major financial support to mortgage holders. Nor will it help with food costs…

Other news:

McCain Foodservice Solution has invested £100k into 12 street food businesses through its Streets Ahead programme supported by social enterprise KERB+.

Licensing solicitor Poppleston Allen reports on the Worker Protection Bill (which consolidates employer liability for the harassment of employees by third parties) & says it could impact hospitality. It says this is not an entirely new concept….

Business interruption insurance. The High Court has ruled in favour of a number of businesses against their insurance companies potentially, as the FT suggests, opening the door to further successful claims for Covid-related business interruption payments.

COMPANY NEWS:

The Restaurant Group has announced that CFO Kirk Davis is to leave the company in September this year. RTN says ‘following a thorough internal and external process, Mark Chambers (currently Chief Executive Officer for Leisure & Concessions) will take on the role of CFO Designate from 1 July 2023 and will formally take over as Group CFO from 15 September 2023…. 

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Nichols plc has announced the appointment of David Taylor to the Board as Interim Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately.

C&C Group’s partnership with Big Issue Recruit has seen the drinks manufacturer and distributor welcome 6 new colleagues to the business. The partnership aims to provide at least 45 job opportunities at C&C for people to transition into supported employment by 2025.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Abta director of public affairs Luke Petherbridge has noted a ‘a desire for closer relations’ between the UK and the EU…

Travelodge has opened a 393-room Travelodge Plus in Dublin City Centre, claiming it to be the second-largest hotel in the city and the largest budget hotel in Ireland.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For today’s CPI release, see INFLATION above Pubs & Restaurants comment.

City AM reports that the Bank of England ‘risks steering the UK into needless recession with more interest rate hikes…’

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The Institute for Public Policy Research  claims underinvestment by government and business over recent decades has left Britain’s economy trapped in a growth ‘doom loop’….

Sterling weaker at $1.2765 and €1.169. Oil up at $76.28. UK 10yr gilt yield down 17bps at 4.32%. World markets down yesterday but Far East mixed today & London set to open little changed as at 6.30am.

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