Hot Choc (warning), WTM (meet), GfK, delivery, interest rates & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

The hot weather combined with these five-day-working-weeks are getting to be a bit of a struggle. Running a tad behind so just time to say have a great weekend, don’t forget to cut the grass and get to the pub and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Interest rates:

See above Finance & Markets below.

Train strikes:

The RMT union has said that some 20,000 of its members will take strike action at 14 rail firms on 20, 22 and 29 July…

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Interest rates, leisure in the cross hairs.

See also comments in Interest Rates below, specifically the suggestion from ONS that hospitality service price rises are contributing to ongoing inflation. The bank of England’s MPC considers interest rate rises to be the only tool available to it. It said yesterday that it ‘projected services sector inflation at +6.8% YoY last month…’

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Trade journal The Caterer reports on yesterday’s interest rate rise and says it ‘will put “even more pressure” on hospitality’.

Michael Kill, CEO of the Night Time Industries Association (NTIA), says ‘our industry can support the Government in bringing down inflation, if we are given the platform to trade….’

UKH says ‘hospitality has significant levels of business borrowing, including £10 billion alone from the pandemic, and it is a worrying situation if businesses have no choice but to prioritise loan repayments over business investment….’

Consumer confidence:

GfK has this morning updates on consumer confidence in the UK, saying that it improved by a further three points in June (albeit still to minus 24). It says there is ‘growing optimism on personal finances for the coming year despite stubborn inflation…’

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Delivery:

CGA reports that ‘delivery and takeaway sales at Britain’s top managed restaurant groups in May were just 1% behind the same month last year, CGA by NIQ’s latest Hospitality at Home Tracker shows.,,,’

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Food costs:

Arla warns there could be further increases in the price of milk and other dairy products if the government does not urgently tackle labour shortages….

COMPANY NEWS:

Whitbread shares were off just 1% yesterday on its Q1 update. The Times reports that ‘Mitchells & Butlers…is being tipped as the frontrunner in a sale [of WTB’s Beefeater & Brewers Fayre pubs] estimated to be priced at about £500 million to £600 million…’

Hotel Chocolat profit warning and not much jam (or chocolate) tomorrow….

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YO! Sushi plans to open 35 more in-store sushi kiosks in Tesco over the coming year, having opened 200 kiosks within the last year. Owner Snowfox Group was acquired by Zensho Holdings earlier this month….

The MCA reports that EG’s ownership of Leon and Co-oplands could lead to more outlets opening in its Asda stores….

Coffee Fellows has opened its first site in the US, a drive-thru site in Houston. The German coffee chain expects to open three further outlets in Texas in 2023 ahead of 10-25 stores across the state over the next two years. 

VFC has acquired Meatless Farm in a deal worth £12m in sales. David Sparrow, CEO of VFC Foods, said ‘Meatless Farm has built strong consumer awareness, which aligns with our core values, and their exciting product portfolio enhances our existing range.’

Heineken is set to take full control of Amsterdam-based beer brewer Oedipus….

Tims China has partnered with Oatly to launch a new ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee range.,,,

WHITBREAD – Q1 TRADING UPDATE:

Whitbread held a conference call to discuss Q1 trading yesterday morning and our comments thereon are set out below. Trading: WTB states that its brand strength in the UK is ‘exceptionally strong’, underpinning trading momentum. The company’s mix between business and leisure customers has given it a ‘strong and stable position’. It states that the business market has come back strongly and that there has been continued strong demand from the leisure market. Supply side reduction, particularly in the UK, is benefitting trade….

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

The value of a  cruise is ‘incredible’ when comparing the price with that of flights, accommodation, food and drink during a land-based holiday, according to Royal Caribbean International vice-president for Europe Ben Bouldin.

Demand for serviced apartments, a halfway house between hotels and owned or rented apartments, is reported to be growing its share of corporate accommodation spend…

OTHER LEISURE:

Hornby shares fell 12% after the company reported a £5.9m loss for the 12 months ended March 31 2023 as the consumer downturn hit business. Investors were told that the  crucial Christmas period failed to live up to expectations for the model train maker.

INTEREST RATES:

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee yesterday voted 7-2 to increase UK base rates by 50bps to 5.00%. It has been accused both of panicking and of indecision…

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• See also implications, overseas considerations – see Premium.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For interest rates, see above.

The MPC commented on the economy yesterday saying that ‘business surveys continue to suggest underlying quarterly GDP growth of around ¼% during the middle of this year….’

The MPC says ‘CPI inflation is expected to fall significantly further during the course of the year, in the main reflecting developments in energy prices. Services CPI inflation is projected to remain broadly unchanged in the near term….’

Sterling mixed at $1.2710 and €1.162. Oil lower at $73.44. UK 10yr gilt yield down 2bps at 4.38%. World markets mixed to down. London set to open around 26pts lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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