Trading, inflation, a ‘profits recession’, Pepsi, CINE, holidays etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

You can only imagine how was thrilled and delighted I was yesterday to receive an unsolicited email saying that the marketing person sending it was ‘massively excited and proud to share’ their new ad with us.

And, I suppose, everything’s relative because, after I’d picked the fluff out of my computer keyboard and stared at a blank wall for a couple of hours, I was similarly massively excited to do anything other than that.

But enthusiasm, huh?

You can’t bottle it and it’s hard to fake so it’s a bit small of me to belittle it elsewhere, I apologise. Anyway, it’s Friday. Goodwill to all people, we’ve made it – or are at least making it – to the end of another midsummer five day week and the weekend beckons. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The consumer:

The Bank of England’s quarterly credit conditions survey shows the consumer is under pressure, with lenders reporting that ‘losses and default rates on secured loans to households increased in Q2, and were expected to increase in Q3…’

Labour issues:

PwC reports that British over-55s who left their jobs during the pandemic are the least likely to return to work in the G7….

Trading:

Lumina Intelligence’s UK Pubs & Bars Market Report 2023 ‘reveal that the UK pub and bar market is projected to grow to £23.3 billion in 2023…’

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Other news:

Hospitality bosses are calling on business secretary Kemi Badenoch to extend new financial help to businesses by amending the terms of emergency loan schemes set up during the pandemic….

Fair Trade USA has announced a freeze on its current minimum pricing and premiums for all coffee sold under its Fair Trade Certified label through 2023, despite announcing an increase in its minimum pricing in March 2023….

Plymouth. Approved Business Finance (ABF) has named Plymouth as the best UK city in which to open a restaurant…

Glasgow. The SLTA has called the decision to cancel night buses in Glasgow ‘yet another hammer blow’ to licensed trade….

INFLATION:

The UK market is coming around to the idea that inflation is somewhat embedded. That’s not the same as saying it’s permanent. We wrote this on 21 February when pondering the question as to whether price rises were transitory or sticky. The comments have arguably stood the test of time rather better than some others:

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COMPANY NEWS:

Hakkasan Group reports UK restaurant revenue of $71.8m for the 18 month period ended 30 June 2022. Pre-tax loss reduced 91%, from $20.9m in 2020 to $1.9m as government support was withdrawn post-pandemic….

PepsiCo yesterday reported Q2 numbers saying that net revenue rose 10.4% to $22.32 billion, ahead of estimates of $21.73 billion, with adjusted profit of $2.09 per share, also ahead of estimates of around $1.96…

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San Francisco-based Anchor Brewing Company is closing down, blaming the ‘impacts of the pandemic, inflation, especially in San Francisco, and a highly competitive market’. The craft brewery is one of the oldest in the US at 127 years old….

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Jerry Brunning, co-founder of Brunning & Price, has acquired a 5th site for his Pubs Ltd venture, located in Gorsedd near Holywell, north Wales. The Druid Inn has been bought from north-west brewer Daniel Thwaites and will undergo a renovation before reopening in early 2024.

Doughnut Time has announced the launch of its new bakery and concept store in Berlin, with the UK mini-chain targeting Germany as a core market alongside the UK.

THE IDEA OF A ‘PROFIT’ RECESSION

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Weekly quotes Travel Counsellors as saying it has seen a total of 17 consecutive months of “unparalleled” sales….

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The NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference has heard that US hotel transaction activity slowed in H2 last year and it has not picked up so far in 2023…

OTHER LEISURE:

Cineworld Group has announced that Eduardo Acuna, who currently runs the Americas operations of Mexican theatre operator Cinepolis, will become its CEO later this month…

Microsoft Activision. The Federal Trade Commission in the US has been unsuccessful in its latest attempt to block Microsoft’s purchase of Call of Duty maker Activision…

US actors’ trade union SAG-AFTRA has voted unanimously to recommend a strike after talks with Hollywood studios failed to reach an agreement….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility is reportedly set to warn that rising interest rates and higher levels of inflation are making it less likely that PM Rishi Sunak will be able to deliver on one of his promises, namely to reduce debt….

Millions of public sector workers are to be offered pay rises between 5%-7%. PM Rishi Sunak said this would be fully funded but did not give detail.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has said that house price enquiries slipped again in June. A net balance of minus 45pps of professionals reported a decline in enquiries over a rise.

The ONS yesterday reported that ‘the value of goods imports increased by £2.0 billion (4.2%) in May 2023 with a rise in imports from both EU and non-EU countries.’ It says ‘after removing the effect of inflation, imports of goods increased by 5.9%.’ it adds that ‘the value of goods exports decreased by £1.4 billion (4.4%) in May 2023 with a fall in exports to both EU and non-EU countries; after removing the effect of inflation, exports of goods fell by 3.2%.’

Sterling up at $1.3129 and €1.1686. Oil up at $81.37, partly on the back of a weak US dollar. UK 10yr gilt yield down another 8bps at 4.45%. world markets better yesterday but London set to open down around 16pts as at 6.30am.

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