RTN, inflation, insolvencies, confidence, Pret, Turtle Bay, McDonald’s etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Apropos of nothing in particular, I was thinking on foraging the other day.

Perhaps I was feeling peckish. Not that the odd dead badger by the side of the road does much to stimulate the appetite and the mushrooms that have sprung up in the middle of our grass are one of the things that I would least like to self-source and then trust my life on, but something nonetheless got me onto the topic.

And I decided that, whilst I’m OK with apples, maybe pears, perhaps wild plums and also al fresco raspberries and brambles – provided that they’re above the height to which a dog can cock its leg – I’m unlikely to trust much else.

Which is a shame in one regard – the various herbs etc in the garden will be ignored no matter how much they try to gastronomically appeal – but a good thing in many other ways as swerving tapeworms, intestinal worms and various poisons must be a positive at the end of the day.

Anyway, time for the news:

LANGTON EMAIL:

The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade.

Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN

RESTAURANT GROUP – H1 TRADING UPDATE:

The Restaurant Group has this morning updated on trading for the first 28 weeks of the current year and our comments thereon are set out below:

The numbers: Wagamama: LfL +5% ytd. RTN says ‘Wagamama has continued to trade strongly. Despite trading being temporarily impacted by the hot weather in late May and June, Wagamama still outperformed the market in Q2.’ It says ‘very encouragingly, dine-in covers are also in year-on-year growth.  Our recent openings are trading ahead of expectations and we have confidence that our expansion plan will continue to deliver highly attractive returns for shareholders.’ Re Brunning & Price (LfL sales ytd +9%), RTN says the division ‘has delivered another exceptional trading performance in the first half of the year, with dine-in covers in year-on-year growth.’ It says ‘B&P has continued its long term trend of out-performing the market.’Leisure: Ytd sales minus 4% LfL. RTN says ‘despite our Leisure business being the most impacted by the current cost-of-living pressures, good
progress has been made on further improving cash generation within the business, with costs being well-managed through further operational efficiencies and…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Headline inflation.

Inflation. Modest drop. Core inflation sticky. Services inflation ditto. The ONS has announced that CPI in the 12 months to June 2023 rose by 7.9%, down from 8.7% in the year to May….

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Food & drink cost inflation:

Kantar grocery figures for the four weeks to 9 July show grocery inflation fell back to 14.9% from 16.5% in the prior period….

Trading:

Lumina Intelligence reports that eating and drinking out spend grew by just 1.1% in the four weeks to 11 June, well behind the current inflation level of 8.7%. Restaurants and pubs & bars have seen channel share decline by 0.3 and 0.8 ppts to 18.4% and 9.2%, respectively.

Business Confidence:

CGA and Fourth have produced their latest Business Confidence Survey, saying that the hospitality sector’s post-COVID-19 recovery ‘is threatened by rising prices in multiple key areas….’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Insolvencies:

The Insolvency Service has updated on June numbers saying that they are elevated and, though they are down on May, which may have been an outlier, they show a rise on June last year.,,,

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Other news:

The BBPA has added 13 new businesses to its membership since the start of 2023, with CEO Emma McClarkin saying ‘The breadth of these new members reflects the vitality and dynamism of our sector, and how we have begun to rebound dynamically from three years of exceptionally challenging circumstances.’

Vegetarian & vegan demand. A survey by The Morning Advertiser has found that 78% of operators believe demand for meat-free dishes is not declining, with 22% contesting that it is….

Olive oil. The International Olive Oil Council predicts Spain will produce 850,000 tonnes of olive crop this year, compared with 1.3m tonnes in a typical year and just 660,000 last year….

COMPANY NEWS:

Pret A Manger reports revenue up 20% reaching £430m in H1 2023, driven by its revamped coffee subscription service….

Stonegate’s operator-led business Craft Union reports LfL sales growth of 14.7% in the 28 weeks to 9 April 2023….

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Turtle Bay’s record sales: Turtle Bay has reported a second record sales year of £90.1m for the year ended 2 April 2023 which is up 5.5% on the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA was £10.2m, down from £17.8m in 2022, due to the latter aided by government support packages….

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

McDonald’s has been told that it should terminate franchise deals if the branches in question are “not following labour law” per the chair of the Business and Trade Committee…

Cook’s Coffee has announced that CFO Craig Brown is to leave the company at the end of this month. His recruitment was only announced on 27 Sept last year…

Chipotle is reported to have signed its first development agreement to open restaurants in the Middle East, starting in Dubai and Kuwait in early 2024.

Cracker Barrel has announced the appointment of Julie Felss Masino as its president and CEO, succeeding Sandra Cochran. Ms Cochran will serve as executive chair of the board until September 2024.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Stansted capacity: During the peak summer season when schools break up at the end of the week, Stansted airport states that it expects to handle more than four million passengers. This comes as numbers bounced back last month to almost pre-pandemic levels….

Manchester airport reported June as its busiest month since pre-pandemic September 2019 and states it is “working hard” to maintain smooth travel through security checks as it prepares for the summer….

The eight story, 181-room hotel, 1 Hotel Mayfair opened last week in London marking the brand’s European debut. The ‘lower impact luxury’ hotel is located on Berkeley Street and overlooks Green Park.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For inflation numbers, see Pubs & Restaurants above.

Sterling weaker at $1.3014 and €1.1596. Oil price higher at $79.45. UK 10yr gilt yield down again on economic slowdown fears at 2.34%m off 11bps. World markets better yesterday but Far East mixed today & London set to open down around 3pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.