DPP, Chapel Down, consumer confidence, income, inbound visitors etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Messing around with Chat GPT the other day and, mindful of the fact that the world has been hanging on my opinion, I’m willing to opine that I think AI could have legs.

Yes, really.

Because you can get it to do useful things like complete your homework or write you a sicknote.

Make sure you instruct it to use British English rather than American, though, and Bob’s your uncle. You can get it to write your essays in a flavourless fashion or in the style of Oscar Wilde or, if you think the teacher, lecturer or examiner is onto you, you can mix it up a  bit, stick in some Churchill, Faulkner or Mark Twain, even a git of Irvine Welsh.

Indeed the only USP humans may have left shortly is the ability to make random mistakes at critical junctures though, if you instruct AI to put a typo in ever other paragraph, even that hurdle could be overcome.

Anyway, it’s the end of another of those interminable five-day weeks.

The weekend looks a bit grotty as far as the weather is concerned, sixteen degrees and heavy rain in Yorkshire, so it could be one for clearing out the understairs cupboard rather than go hiking on the moors. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer confidence:

GfK has released its monthly survey for consumer confidence in the UK in July (conclusion ‘all in all it’s bad news’) saying that it dropped six points in the month to minus 30 ‘as reality bites resilient consumers…’

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Consumer disposable income:

Good news, but keep it in perspective. Moneyfacts reports that the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate dipped to 6.79% on Thursday from 6.81%….

Other news:

The BII has launched its #MyPub campaign, encouraging pubs across the UK to write to their MPs, and invite them to visit….

Minimum pricing North of the Border. The Daily Record reports that the Scottish Government is surveying several options for MUP, including keeping it at 50p, or increases to 60p, 70p, 80p or more than 80p. The Federation of Independent Retailers (FIR) said the potential top-tier rises could ‘price out’ those drinking beer or wine.

Supermarkets. Not gouging but some complaints on pricing upheld. The CMA has found not all retailers are displaying prices as clearly as they should…

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COMPANY NEWS:

DP Poland has updated on Q2 and H1 trading. CEO Nils Gornall comments that ‘LFL System Sales in Poland increased by 16.8% in Q2 2023 compared to Q2 2022, driven by a strong increase in order counts’ and that ‘inflationary pressures in food and energy have begun to recede.’ Mr Gornall says cost pressures ‘remain in labour markets’. The company opened two stores in H1 and has three planned for H2. It reports cash at bank of £2.5 million as at 30th June 2023 (31st December 2022: £4.1 million).

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UK winemaker Chapel Down has updated on its H1 to end-June saying that it has seen ‘continued strong sales growth momentum with H1 net sales revenue growth of 21% to £8.37m (2022 H1: £6.94m).’ It says that ‘total wine volumes increased 6% to 732k with traditional method sparkling volumes up +32% to 428k…’

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Further to its trading update yesterday, Fuller’s has confirmed its decision to ‘initiate a share buyback programme to repurchase up to 1 million A shares.’ It says ‘this is consistent with the Company’s capital allocation framework and reflects the Board’s view that the current share price represents a significant discount to the Company’s underlying net asset value.’ Fuller’s has entered into an arrangement with Numis Securities Limited to repurchase the shares.

Jamie Oliver has announced plans to open a new landmark restaurant in London’s Theatre Royal on Drury Lane this October….

Cakebox confirms that it received an unsolicited approach from River Capital to acquire the company at a price of 160p a share. It stated ‘the Board unequivocally rejected the Indicative Approach as materially undervaluing the Company and no further discussions with River Capital have taken place.’

Gong cha, the Taiwanese bubble tea chain, is set to reach a global estate of 2,000 stores after its Boston, USA, site opens on 21 July 2023. The companies largest market is South Korea at 700 stores. It aims to reach 500 stores across the US by 2025, which would make it the company’s second largest market.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

VisitBritain has upgraded its inbound tourism forecast for 2023 saying the number of international visitor numbers will hit 37.5 million this year, just 8% below the 2019 level….

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ABTA has suggested that over two million people will fly abroad this weekend as most schools in England and Wales break up for the summer.

EasyJet reports that easyJet holidays will surpass £100m in profit this year after a strong Q3. Divisional revenue more than doubled to £237m, up from £117m in Q3 2022. The company said the performance would drive ‘the group towards a strong outcome for FY23’.

The Airports Council International (ACI) has published its latest World Airport Traffic Dataset putting Heathrow once more in its top ten…

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According to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, the number of cancelled flights in Europe rose from 7,600 in May to 10,402 last month in June as summer travel accelerated, increasing by 37%….

Business and leisure are now “impossible” to segregate, Accor Group chairman and CEO Sébastien Bazin said during the hotel company’s 2023 Global Meeting Exchange in Paris….

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The coroner in the gambling-related suicide of Luke Ashton in 2021 warns that more deaths could occur unless the parent company of Betfair (Flutter) does more to protect its customers….

Tesla unveiled record revenues, the Model Y maker reported revenues just shy of $25bn, beating its previous record that it set over Christmas….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Office for National Statistics has said that house prices in the UK did not rise at all between April and May (having risen by 0.5% in the prior month). This brings the annual rate of house price inflation dropped down to 1.9%.

Barclays has updated its forecasts for inflation in the UK saying that there has been ‘more disinflationary progress in non-energy industrial goods. It says ‘against this backdrop, our forecast changes are minimal. We now forecast annual average headline inflation at 7.3% y/y in 2023 and 3.1% y/y in 2024 (prev: 7.4% and 3.1% respectively).’

Sterling $1.2877 and €1.1558. Oil $80.35. UK 10yr gilt yield 4.27%. Markets broadly better yesterday but Far East down in Friday trade. London set to open down around 5pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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