Langton Capital – 2023-07-24 – RTN, McDonald’s, Vue, price elasticities, no shows, holiday fires etc.:
RTN, McDonald’s, Vue, price elasticities, no shows, holiday fires etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: The weather was awful over the weekend but, when the Sunday forecast had sixteen degrees and light rain for York in what’s now the last full week in July, we didn’t think it could get much worse. However, as it promptly changed to fourteen degrees and heavy rather than light rain, we realised that it could. But still, we decided to look on the bright side and, when it stopped raining for a little while mid-afternoon, we ignored the forecast (which pretty much said ‘don’t be fooled, there’s much more rain to come’) and ventured into town. Sadly, our optimism collapsed on contact with reality, the heavens duly opened and our expedition proved to be something of an error of judgement. Indeed more than that as, drowned-rat-like, we had to skulk from shop to shop and compete with tourists, strangely unhappy to experience a genuine English summer to the full, for the few square feet under the odd shop canopy. And then it was Monday. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Consumer – disposable income: Rents rocket. Rightmove figures show that private rent outside London had risen to a new record of £1,231 per calendar month, rising to £2,567 in London…. ‘Cheaper’ mortgages; blink & they were gone. Moneyfacts reports that the average two-year homeowner mortgage rate on the market edged back up to 6.8% on Friday from 6.79% yesterday. The move undoes some of the positive sentiment around the lower than expected inflation figure. Trading: CGA has reported that cooler weather has dampened July’s drinks sales. It says that ‘on Premise drinks sales dipped slightly last week (to 15 July) in line with falling temperatures—ending an 11-week stretch of year-on-year growth….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Food costs: The MCA speaks to David Read, Prestige Purchasing chairman, who concludes that inflation can have a deeply corrosive effect upon business. He says it plays havoc with prices & margins and increases investment volatility. Food Inflation as measured by the CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index increased again to 22.6% year-on-year in June and, since mid-2021 food prices have increased by more than a third… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. WFH: Cutting office space: John Lewis is set to halve the size of its new head office after thousands of employees opt to work from home…. Access to staff: The Sunday Times reports that ‘thousands of young European waiters, baristas and au pairs could be allowed to come to the UK for two years under plans to plug gaps in the British workforce….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Market size: Lumina Intelligence reports that the UK eating out market will reach £95.2bn of turnover in 2023 as inflation drives up prices…. Rail strikes: James Watt, the CEO of BrewDog, has called on the government to ‘step in’ on the continual rail strikes and ‘sort out this mess out’…. No shows: Barclaycard Payments has reported that ‘growing last minute cancellations and no-shows have driven restaurant owners to consider permanently closing over the last year.’ It says 18% of restaurant owners are considering shutting and ‘a third of restaurants are given under an hours’ notice for cancellations…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Other news: Arcade Battersea, a modern dining food hall, is set to open on 26 July inside Battersea Power Station. The food hall will have seating for 500 and will have Arcade’s direct-to-table ordering system, eliminating the need to queue at stands and limit the need to book ahead. The Chicago Board of Trade exchange had wheat trading higher last week as Russia continues to carry out heavy air strikes on Ukraine’s grain stores…. Price elasticities. Interesting to see Premier Foods last week, in its well-received Q1 update, comment that the price elasticities across its brands had been different in the face of price rises… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Sales of Champagne fell by nearly 4% in the first half of 2023; The region of Champagne has capped yields for its impending harvest at a slightly lower level than last year. COMPANY NEWS: The Sunday Telegraph reports that ‘TMR Capital is considering a swoop for two of the four divisions at The Restaurant Group.’ It says the PE house is ‘plotting to break up the hospitality group…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. After the BBC reported multiple allegations of abuse, the company McDonald’s has launched a new investigation. A BBC investigation reported that some workers as young as 17 were being harassed almost routinely in the fast-food chain. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. In its plan to reach 100 stores by 2026, KBeverage has acquired fellow franchisee GK Coffee Group and its nine London stores. The Sunday Times reports that Asda and Morrisons paid zero corporation tax last year. It says the PE owned businesses sought to ‘minimise tax by loading their companies up with debt.’ HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Rhodes fires. A number of tour operators including Tui, EasyJet Holidays and Jet2, have cancelled outgoing flights to Rhodes after a number of hotels were evacuated due to wildfires…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. EasyJet CEO, Johan Lundgren, said the intense heatwave in Europe is not dampening holiday sales in England. However, Mr Lundgren says that it serves as “a reminder of what is ahead”. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. OTHER LEISURE: The Barbenheimer phenomenon has driven cinema ticket sales higher this weekend and into the first week of the school’s summer holidays with the Barbie film also becoming the biggest film of the year so far in the US and Canada…. Toy company Mattel Inc has seen its value rise by £1 billion this year ahead of the Barbie movie release. FINANCE & MARKETS: Former Bank of England governor Mervyn King has said the Bank may plunge the UK into a recession by raising rates too far. Lord King said signals from the credit markets showed that price growth was about to drop sharply. The ONS has reported that government borrowing amounted to some £18.5bn in June, around £400m down on June last year and slightly below estimates. The Mail on Sunday reports that the ‘Chancellor rules out pre-election tax cuts’ because the UK’s ‘public finances [are] in disarray as surging interest rates push up cost of servicing UK debt pile.’ Sterling mixed at $1.2858 and €1.1563. Oil up at $80.94. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 4.27%. World markets mixed on Friday. London set to open down around 11 points as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. 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