MARS (Q3), Just Eat (H1), Nichols (H1), RBG (FY update), Tracker etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Can somebody tell me why is it that kids, and I use the term loosely here as it encompasses any relative aged between three and thirty-three, act as though it is illegal for them to put their dirty pots in the dishwasher?

Because it’s a mystery to me.

As, once you’ve scraped the plate and surreptitiously placed it on top of the tottering stack of flatware left by your siblings, you may as well have pushed open the dishwasher door and put the crockery in there in the first place.

And then we’d all save time, the offending offspring into the bargain and, perhaps more importantly, the dog wouldn’t feel she had to spend so much effort trying to slurp the plates clean when hoovering up surplus gravy.

I can only conclude that, if it’s not a lack of nous, it’s not unfamiliarity with the geography of the kitchen and it’s not an attempt to feed the dog on the sly, it can only be, channelling Sherlock Holmes here, because it’s against a law that has hitherto remained nameless and invisible to many.

On to the news: 

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MARSTON’S Q3 TRADING UPDATE:

Marston’s has updated on Q3 (and year to date) trading and our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers: Marston’s reports that year to date LfL sales are up by 10.7%. Total retail sales, managed & franchised, are up by 12%. LfL sales in the last 16 weeks – which include the hot weather in June, the dreadful weather in July and are up against the FY22 heatwave weeks – were up by 10.9%. Marston’s has previously announced that it has invested in its outdoor spaces and sales have responded accordingly. Whilst the weather remains a major factor, customer demand is solid.

Costs and margin: The company reassures that it is ‘well placed’ with regard to costs. There should be some downward moves re energy and the task of rebuilding margin – as is the case across the industry – will continue into FY24.

Trading evolution: MARS updates on its test re franchised food-led operations, saying that these have performed ahead of food overall. The project will be extended to over 50 units in FY24. Marston’s continues to simplify its business and selective disposals, for example the sale of a number of ex-Revere pubs to Young & Co and Robinson’s, look set to continue.

Debt & cash flow: Marston’s has confirmed (in line with expectations) that it will receive a dividend of £11m from The Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company in H2. Debt should be reduced by between £50m and £60m this financial year with around the same amount to come off in FY24. There have been and will be some disposals in the normal course of business.

Company comment: CEO Andrew Andrea comments ‘Marston’s has delivered another strong trading performance, validating the strategy we are implementing and demonstrating the appeal of our pubs.’ He says ‘we are making good progress and are beginning to see the benefits of the actions we have taken in H1, simplifying our trading formats and repositioning our pub portfolio, as well as the investments we have made in our pub gardens and outside trading areas.’ Mr Andrea adds ‘we are encouraged by the success of the trial extending the partnership model into our food-led pubs.  The trial has been positive and we will extend this model to over 50 food-led pubs in FY2024.  Marston’s pioneered the operator managed agreement in 2009, which now operates in over 700 wet-led pubs, and we are pleased to lead the evolution of this format and are excited about its future growth potential for
our business.’

The CEO says ‘we remain focused on delivering on our debt reduction strategy and continue to make good progress in that regard.’ He adds ‘whilst macro-economic challenges persist for the time being, we remain encouraged by the Group’s trading resilience and that the pub remains an affordable treat for our guests.’ Mr Andrea concludes that ‘an improving cost outlook, together with the actions we are taking to maximise efficiencies, leaves Marston’s well-placed to navigate through ongoing economic headwinds.’

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REVOLUTION BARS GROUP – FY TRADING UPDATE:

Revolution Bars Group has this morning updated on full year trading to 1 July and our comments are set out below:

Headline comments: RBG says that full year numbers to 2 July are ‘anticipated to be in line with market expectations.’ The company says ‘Peach Pubs have continued to trade strongly and in line with business expectations at acquisition, with full year like-for-like sales +14% ahead of pre-Covid LFLs.’ The company says the ‘team is now largely integrated into the wider group, our guests are enjoying their experiences in our pubs and gardens, and our menus and amazing service continue to delight. We see significant opportunities to invest in and expand this exciting brand when appropriate to do so.’

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JUST EAT TAKEAWAY – H1 NUMBERS:

Just Eat Takeaway has this morning reported H1 numbers and our comments thereon update are set out below:

The numbers: Just Eat Takeaway reports total revenue in H1 fell to €2.6bn from €2.8bn in H1 last year. Adjusted EBITDA was a positive €143m against an EBITDA loss of €134m in the same period in 2022. The company reports that ‘Northern Europe and UK and Ireland returned to GTV growth in Q2 2023.’ It says the ‘UK and Ireland [are] on track to reach a similarly high AEBITDA Margin as Northern Europe.’ The group says we are ‘fast approaching our positive free cash flow target.’

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COFFER CGA BUSINESS TRACKER:

Summary. The warm weather in June helped sales. The Tracker reports ‘Britain’s managed restaurant, pub and bar groups overcame widespread challenges to record a ninth successive month of year-on-year sales growth in June 2023.’ LfL sales were ahead by 6.7% in June against the same month last year….

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Disposable income.

The IFS has found that large parts of the economy have endured real wage cuts, with official figures being dragged up by big pay increases for highly paid workers in London and the south-east….

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Job losses:

Job losses impact confidence and confidence (along with access to cash) determines spend. Virgin Media O2 has announced it will cut up to 2,000 UK jobs, or 12% of its total workforce, by the end of this year….

• The news follows BT’s decision to cut 55,000 jobs with up to a fifth replaced by AI and Vodafone’s announcement that it will cut 11,000 jobs. Overall unemployment numbers are hardly high but, if job cuts continue to make the headlines, confidence could take a bit of a knock.

The High Street:

Westminster City Council, in partnership with New West End Company, is offering small businesses the chance to take over a shop on Oxford Street, rent-free…

Other news:

Train strikes. Members of the train drivers’ union Aslef will refuse to work extra hours from Monday 7 August to Saturday 12 August. The overtime ban is due to a long-running dispute over pay.

Beer. Finder UK reports that a pint of beer in the UK is 127% more expensive than the worldwide average cost….

COMPANY NEWS:

Nichols has reported H1 numbers saying that sales rose by 6.6% to £85.5m with PBT up 9.1% at £12.3m…

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British billionaire Joe Lewis, who part-owns UK pub company Mitchells & Butlers, has been indicted in the US for orchestrating a “brazen” insider trading scheme….

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The MCA reports that Deliveroo is slowing down the rollout of its Editions dark kitchen model as its unit economics become more challenging due to the slowdown of demand, and increase in energy and borrowing costs….

Stonegate is set to undertake a consultation process that could see up to 260 roles be made redundant….

Rémy Cointreau reports Q1 organic sales down 35% to €257.5m due to weaker demand in the US, tough YoY comparatives and destocking….

Big Smoke Pub Co has appointed FRP Advisory as administrators….

Subway in the US has updated on H1 same-store sales, saying that these were up 9.3% on the same period last year….

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Carnival-owned Princess Cruises reports its ‘strongest May on record’, with sales up 30% on 2022….

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Hurtigruten reports sales up 200% YoY, driven by the normalisation of the cruise booking curve following the invasion of Ukraine, which had dampened 2022 sales in key markets….

OTHER LEISURE:

Alphabet yesterday reported Q2 profits ahead of Wall Street expectations. The numbers were aided by ‘steady demand for its cloud services and a rebound in advertising’ reports Reuters. The shares rose 8% in after-hours trading.

Snap Inc reported Q2 numbers and updated on Q3 yesterday. The Q3 outlook was weaker than expected and the group’s shares fell by 18%.

Sky News reports that ‘City AM, the London-based business newspaper, is close to calling in administrators after a weeks-long search for a buyer failed to produce a solvent deal.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Rating agency Fitch yesterday reported that the UK will see a ‘particularly notable’ rise in government debt interest payments when compared with other countries in the developed world…

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The CBI reports that ‘sentiment among manufacturers improved for the first time in two years’ in July. It says ‘output volumes stabilised in the three months to July, having fallen steadily since the February survey, and are expected to grow next quarter…’

The International Monetary Fund now says that global economy will grow by 3% this year up from its estimate of 0.1% in April.

Sterling up at $1.289 and €1.1661. Oil higher at $83.22. UK 10yr gilt yield up 3bps at 4.28%. World markets better yesterday but London set to open around 18 pts lower as at 6.30am.

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