MAB (Q3 update), DPEU (Q2), BVIC (Q3), JET, confidence etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I’ve noticed that, whilst my desk is comparatively tidy, my ‘to file File’, which is a massive heap on the floor that is threatening to generate its own gravitational field, is getting bigger.

And, since deep in its core are likely to be tax demands, reminders of various bills and reminders of reminders, I might have to do something about it some day soon.

However, it’s hard to see just when that day will come.

Because the task is a ‘rainy weather job’ and, as the rain has come and come again and the pile has simply grown bigger, it’s hard to see what will trigger it. Maybe the tax authorities will understand.

Anyway, a bit busy yesterday and today due to the blizzard of RNSs that have been keeping us on our toes. On to the news:

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MITCHELLS & BUTLERS – Q3 TRADING UPDATE:

M&B has this morning updated on Q3 trading and our comments are set out below:

Headline figures: M&B reports ‘continued strong trading through the third quarter has increased like-for-like sales in the year to date to 8.9%, with total sales growth now of 10.5%.’ The numbers are ahead of inflation (on increased spend but with volumes presumably under a little pressure), but they are a shade below Marston’s numbers reported yesterday. It adds that ‘like-for-like sales in the third quarter increased by 9.7%, as we continued to out-perform the market and with both food and drink volumes in growth.’ The company says ‘we achieved a record-breaking Father’s Day in June and sales performance across the quarter was relatively consistent outside of weeks impacted by industrial action on national transport systems.’ M&B adds ‘against FY 2019, year-to-date like-for-like sales are up 10.0%, with growth driven by spend-per-head….’

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JUST EAT H1 – ANALYSTS’ CONFERENCE CALL:

Just Eat Takeaway (JET) yesterday followed the release of its H1 numbers with a conference call for analysts and our comments thereon update are set out below:

Key Numbers & Messages: JET reports total revenue in H1 fell to €2.6bn from €2.8bn in H1 last year. Gross Transaction Value (GTV) fell to €13.2bn from €14.2bn. Total orders fell 12% YoY to 450 million as the company lapped tough comparatives against H1 2022 when Covid related measures were still in place in several markets. Adjusted EBITDA was a positive €143m against a loss of €134m last year, delivering a margin of 1.0% for the company. This was driven by a strengthening of delivery unit economics through finding cost efficiencies. Northern Europe and UK & Ireland returned to GTV growth in Q2 2023….

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Closures:

The latest Hospitality Market Monitor from CGA by NIQ and AlixPartners shows that around 5% of hospitality venues operating are closing annually, with 5,736 pubs, hotels, restaurants, bars and cafes closing in the last 12 months….

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UKHospitality CEO Kate Nicholls responded to the Hospitality Market Monitor, saying ‘alongside the increased rate of business failure across the independent market, there has been an industry-wide freeze on investment and new openings due to the current crisis, providing a very constrained short-term outlook….’

Market health:

Christie & Co reports that the UK pub sector was resilient in H1 2023 due to its solid headline performance. Its Mid-Year Review stated that  market activity remained subdued in H1 due to a lack of opportunities as sellers wait for stability and buyers become cautious in light of rising interest rates….

Business confidence:

There are more business confidence surveys out there than you can shake a stick at but, says the accountant, the Q2 Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) produced by the ICAEW is a proper one. It ‘shows a further small increase in business confidence, although sentiment did fall away during the quarter, due to concerns around continued economic challenges, notably high inflation and rising interest rates…’

Other news:

The BBC reports that prospective renters are in severe competition with each other as each available property sees 20 viewing requests. Rightmove figures show the average number of requests to see each home has more than tripled from six in 2019….

COMPANY NEWS:

DP Eurasia has updated on trading during its Q2 to end-June saying that total store numbers have risen to 884 (year ago 842) with total sales for the estate up 23.2%. CEO Aslan Saranga says ‘it has been a strong first half performance as we continue to successfully implement our targeted action plan to mitigate the ongoing macro challenges that management has deep experience in navigating….’

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Britvic has updated on Q3 trading (it is a September year-end) saying that revenue is up by 9.9% on the same quarter a year ago with 9mth sales ahead by 8.6%. The company has announced tow ‘targeted acquisitions’, one in the UK and one in Brazil…

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Per MCA, Admiral Taverns’ wet-led Proper Pubs division reports sales +10% YoY and is outperforming the rest of the estate….

Campari yesterday reports H1 numbers and confirmed its margin target for the full year but, as sales growth for the firm’s drinks slowed down in the second quarter, the shares fell by around 3% on the news…

Coca-Cola Co yesterday reported Q2 numbers saying ‘we are seeing strong engagement from consumers across our stable of brands…’

Global luxury goods producer LVMH has reported calendar Q2 numbers showing that its wines & spirits division generated sales of €3.181 billion for the six months to 30 June 2023, representing a drop of 4% on the same period last year….

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Moody’s has reported that Dutch coffee company JDE Peet’s purchase of JAV Group’s Brazilian coffee and tea business for an undisclosed sum will ‘temporarily increase JDE Peet’s financial leverage, a credit negative….’

Tortilla will open its new Bracknell site on 4 August, located in The Lexicon. As an opening offer, the restaurant will be offering 2-for-1 on burritos and naked burritos in the form of a digital voucher when you register.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Figures from the Nationwide building society suggest that spending on air tickets and holidays slowed in June. Airline ticket sales in June were 5% down on May, but remain markedly up, by 38%, on the same month last year. The number of transactions were up 3% month-on-month and by 37% compared with June last year…

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Gatwick has encountered widespread flight delays due to thunderstorms  across Europe and staff shortages, with at least 70 flights reported to have been cancelled, with almost half by EasyJet.

Heathrow reports H1 passenger numbers up 42% to 37.1m, with revenue up 36% to £1.7bn and adjusted EBITDA up 44% to £1.1bn….

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OTHER LEISURE:

Spotify has written off £34m in podcast deals as it seeks to ‘rationalise’ its podcast content portfolio. Last month Spotify and Archewell Audio, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s podcast production company, agreed to mutually terminate a £16m deal they signed in 2020.

THG is reported set to buy City AM. Founder Matt Moulding says ‘we’ve long been reviewing opportunities in the disruptive media space but have waited for the right time and the right opportunity.’

Meta yesterday reported earnings and revenue for the second quarter ahead of analysts’ estimates. The company also and issued a better-than-expected forecast for the current period and the shares rose about 7% in extended trading….

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Mattel has reported Q2 numbers saying sales fell by 12% for quarter to end June.

Aston Martin yesterday reported Q2 numbers ahead of market expectations.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Telegraph reports that ‘taxpayers face a bill for an extra £50bn to cover losses on the Bank of England’s money printing, after stubborn inflation triggered frenzied bets on higher interest rates….

The US Fed yesterday raised interest rates by 25bps, in line with expectations. The rate, which is the country’s highest in 22 years, sets benchmarks in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Some analysts are now suggesting that there may be no further rate rises this calendar year.

Sterling up at $1.2968 and €1.1678. Oil higher at $83.72. UK 10yr gilt yield up 1bp at 3.29%. World markets heading better yesterday and London set to open up around 17pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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