IHG, DGE, Barclaycard, property, confidence, food costs, housing etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Memories are interesting things, aren’t they?

Because they’re not real and they’re not photographic. They’re rather, over time, a memory of a memory of a memory, just a bunch of electrical impulses that have to be sparked up each and every time they’re called back and they can be wrong.

Take the puddle that shakes when the T-Rex approaches in the first Jurassic Park film.

Well it isn’t a puddle, it’s a cup on the dashboard of the jeep and yet I would have passed a lie detector swearing the former and I would have been wrong.

I was directionally correct, of course. There was a liquid involved but even that isn’t the case if a witness swears the green car hit the red car when, though they got the fact that there was an impact right, it was actually the other way around.

Anyway, I think lawyers and judges are well aware of the above – though juries probably aren’t. Let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The hospitality industry property market:

Christie Group yesterday warned on profits and saw its shares decline by 33%. The group, which advises on property and financial transactions and which provides ancillary services, said that ‘following continued delays in achieving contractual exchange on ongoing transactions in its agency and advisory business…it now expects full year performance to be materially below previous expectations…’

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Business confidence:

BDO reports that business confidence fell last month. Its survey of 4,000 firms suggests that hiring intentions have been scaled back and optimism has declined…

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Separately, Restaurant Online has reported that ‘business confidence remains mixed among smaller operators.’ In a fragmented industry, what smaller operators feel counts for something. Restaurant reports that ‘small businesses have expressed fears that summer trading will be down on the previous year…’

Cost increases:

Concerns have begun to be raised that the UK’s damp and cool summer could lead to food price increases in the autumn. The cost of wheat reportedly rose for the first time in nine months in July…

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Food prices:

Bank of England economist Huw Pill has said that higher food prices may be here to stay. He says food price inflation will still be in double digits at the end of the year and adds that cheaper food is ‘something we may not be seeing for a while yet, if in the future at all…..’

Selling prices:

Lumina Intelligence’s latest Menu Tracker Quarterly Report of Q2 2023 reports that food menu inflation has increased by +14.4% year-on-year. It says this was mostly driven by chain restaurants and QSR.

Drink sales:

CGA’s Drinks Recovery Tracker for the week to Saturday 29 July suggests that damp weather and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis have led to a drop of 3% in spending year on year….

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Consumer spending:

Barclaycard has updated on spending for July. Card spend growth was 4.0% year-on-year in July, little more than half the rate of inflation – and it may be worse than that if one accounts for the ongoing cash to plastic switch…..

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WFH:

The Pragmatist looks at Working-from-Home developments and points out that traditional landlords have taken a battering and the providers of more flexible space (such as We Work and IWG, formerly Regus) have not done well either…

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Salaries & jobs:

Whilst inflation isn’t a ‘good thing’, higher wages do put more money in the pockets of would-be consumers. Startups.co.uk reports that ‘UK businesses are fattening up staff pay packets in an effort to keep their payroll competitive….’

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Pub closures:

Accountant Price Bailey has reported that 223 pubs entered insolvency in Q2 this year. Some 200 failed in Q1….

Demographics:

Renters, who are a younger demographic on the whole than homeowners, are reported to be spending nearly four times as much of their income on housing as homeowners…

Separately estate agency Hamptons has suggested that some younger consumers are being driven out of central London as they are struggling to afford accommodation.

Other news:

Australian wine exports are reported to have fallen by 10% in value to AU$1.87 billion in the year to July 2023. Volume was down only 1%. Demand slipped for shipments to the US.

Sky News reports that Zoom is asking workers to come back into the office.

Pubs will not be allowed to sell takeaway drinks from the end of September.

The NTIA has reported that over 100 independent nightclubs have been lost in the last 12 months due to cost inflation. Some 31% of nightclubs have closed between June 2020 and June 2023….

UK businesses have urged PM Rishi Sunak, who is on holiday at his penthouse in California, to reverse the rise in visa fees for skilled workers due to increase by 66% to £1,035 per year.

COMPANY NEWS:

Diageo has suggested that Tequila could increase its share of the global alcohol market from 4% to 6%….

The Cornish Bakery has announced the ‘opening a large new bakery in the capital city of Cornwall. The company has also announced that five other sites are now in development in Canterbury, Salisbury, Harrogate, Norwich and Cheltenham.’

Beyond Meat yesterday reported Q2 numbers and cut its annual revenue forecast as well as missing its Q2 numbers as the growth of false-meat consumption disappointed investors. The company had said in October it would cut jobs.

The MCA reports that Liberation Group is to focus anew on its breakfast offer and experiential elements. CEO Jonathan Lawson has said three has seen a “slight decline” in the average number of visits but says that ‘what’s accelerated is the demand for quality.’

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Intercontinental Hotels has reported Q2 and half year numbers to 30 June saying that revenue rose by 24% to $2.226bn with operating profit up 62% at $584m and basic EPS up by 126% at 256c. The H1 dividend will be 48.3c compared with 43.9c a year ago. IHG says it has seen ‘strong trading’ with H1 RevPAR up +24% YOY. This implies ‘further sequential improvement vs 2019 with Q1 +6.8% and Q2 +9.9%….’

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Halifax has reported that ‘average UK house prices edged down slightly in July, with the monthly fall of -0.3% equivalent to a drop of around £1,000 in cash terms.’ This is the fourth consecutive fall. The Halifax points out that all of the falls have been smaller than -0.5%. The drop is much larger in real terms…

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Research published by BT suggests that 28% of small businesses in the UK say social media is their main driver of sales.

Sterling up at $1.276 and €1.1607. Oil down at $85.40. UK 10yr gilt yield up 5bps at 4.45%. World markets mixed yesterday. London due to open down 9 points or so as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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