Business confidence, train strikes, trading, Pernod, Dishoom etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, the summer holidays are over and, after a period of, to be charitable, mixed weather, we’re due a heatwave this week when the kids are back at school.

Perhaps ‘twas ever thus.

Anyway, catching up a bit at the moment so more on this and other issues tomorrow. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Business confidence:

CGA last week reported that ‘optimism among Britain’s hospitality leaders has risen for the third quarter in a row.’ Its new Business Confidence Survey ‘shows 62% of leaders currently feel optimistic about prospects for their business over the next 12 months—an increase of eight percentage points from the last survey in May. The proportion of leaders feeling confident about the hospitality market in general has climbed by five percentage points quarter-on-quarter, to 45%….’

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Elsewhere, the CEBR points out that .there were over 6,700 business insolvencies in Britain in Q2 2023, more than double what was seen in a typical quarter during the pandemic, though during that period businesses were largely protected from insolvency through a range of measures….’

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Recent trading:

The MA reports that ‘UK pubs benefited from increased trade during the bank holiday weekend but staff shortages prevented even greater sales….’

CGA’s Daily Drinks Tracker has suggested that the women’s World Cup helped drinks sales last week. It says that ‘average sales in managed venues in the week to Saturday (26 August) finished 1% ahead of the same week in 2022….’

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Rail strikes:

Those impacted will not need reminding that strikes and the associated disruption to travel are ongoing. RMT members walked out on Saturday after Aslef members walked out on Friday and refused to work overtime on Saturday.

Selling prices:

The MA reports ONS data suggesting that the price of draught lager has risen by 38% over the past ten years. It says that ‘a pint in a pub will soon become a “luxury” for many consumers.’

The MCA reports that Pret a Manger ‘has ramped up food prices since 2020’ saying that the price of an egg mayo sandwich is up 72% on August 2020 and a can of Coke Zero costs 54% more at £1.70.

Costs:

The BBC questions whether or not post-Brexit checks on imports will ever actually be imposed. The Brexit-related red tape, friction and cost associated with the checks will give another push to inflation. For the meantime, however, ministers continue to kick the can down the road having delayed imposition now five times….

Other news:

The Daily Telegraph reports that private equity house Breal is putting together a portfolio of craft breweries after buying Black Sheep Brewery out of administration in May and then adding London-based craft breweries Brick and Brew By Numbers….

COMPANY NEWS:

Five Guys CEO John Eckbert states that the  family-owned American group wants to double the number of UK restaurants in the next few years to 300. Eckbert said the British business had ‘exceeded expectations’ and is now looking at opening sites in airports and train stations.

The Wolseley Hospitality Group reports revenue up 60.7% YoY to £53.7m with ‘record’ adjusted EBITDA of £5.7m despite the current economic challenges….

Pernod Ricard reports organic net sales up 10% to €12,137m in the year to the end of July, with total sales up 13% YoY partly helped by currency movements….

Dishoom Ltd has reported its FY numbers for the period ended 1 January 2023 to Companies House. The accounts show a recovery in both turnover and profits year-on-year (YoY) as the level of pandemic-related disruption reduced. During 2022 the company opened a new restaurant in Canary Wharf….

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Tims China reported revenue up 130% YoY to $56.8m in Q2, higher than the $47.5m achieved in Q1…

The MCA reports that Patisserie Valerie plans to reopen two sites, located in Cambridge and Bristol, since it fell into administration in 2019. The company had traded from around 150 sites prior to its collapse, with its store count subsequently falling down to 29 after the company closed further sites in 2021.

The Times reports that Jeremy King is to reopen Le Caprice restaurant after taking the lease. The site was most recently operated by Richard Caring, who may keep the name.

Heineken has sold its Russian business for €1 eighteen months after it first pledged to pull out of the country following its invasion of Ukraine.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Flight disruption: The Sunday Telegraph reports that NATS has accused the CAA of ‘delaying much needed modernisation of our physical and airspace infrastructure’ after the CAA approved a budget plan that NATS believes is lacking….

Gatwick flight volumes were around 86% of pre-pandemic levels in H1 this year. The airport reports that some 18.5 million passengers travelled through it in the first six months of 2023.

Heathrow Airport is warning passengers of the need to comply with ULEZ regulations if they drive to the airport.

Travelodge has said that Taylor Swift fans are booking out its hotels near several of the venues for the UK leg of the Eras tour next summer….

PPHE Hotel Group Ltd reported last week total revenue up 59% YoY to £180m in the six months to 30 June 2023, driven by strong room rate growth….

Travel subscription e-commerce company eDreams ODIGEO (eDO) reported that its membership base grew by 47% in Q1 to 4.7m, with the company saying revenues and profits were surging in Q1.

The luxury hotel Mar Hall Golf & Spa Resort in Bishopton, Renfrewshire, has entered administration, putting 118 jobs at risk. The hotel is frequented by celebrities such as Beyonce and George Clooney and is currently searching for a purchaser.

OTHER LEISURE:

Boy George & Culture Club’s company, Mishpocha Touring LLP, has entered administration. The company owes nearly £12.5m with all lenders apart from HMRC set to significant losses.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

A poll of economists commissioned by Reuters has suggested that interest rates in the UK will peak at 5.5%. They should hit this level later this month

The Nationwide has reported that house prices fell 5.3% in the UK in the year to August….

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The ONS has revised numbers saying that the UK recovered more rapidly from the Covid pandemic than it had previously believed. Various stimulus measures have led to increased debt levels and inflation.

The CBI reports that ‘private sector activity fell again in the three months to August, marking a full year of declining or flat activity.’ Its lates Growth Indicator suggests that manufacturing was a particular weak spot…

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said he is confident the rate of inflation will continue to slow.

The volume of house sales in the UK this year looks likely to be the lowest in a decade reports Zoopla.

Since last reported (on Friday 25 Aug) Sterling is up marginally at $1.2602 and €1.1685. Oil higher at $88.57 and the UK 10yr gilt yield is down 2bps at 4.41%. World markets broadly better on Friday & Far East up today. London set to open around 37pts higher as at 6.30am.

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