RTN, Itsu, JDW, actions v words, trading, Hostmore, G4M & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Our old Skoda is fifteen-and-a-half years old now and, like a decrepit old pet of a similar age, it’s both a) expensive to run and b) something we for some strange reason don’t really feel inclined to get rid of.

Still, the garage pointed out the rather stark facts of life to us when it last failed its MOT, something that it’s done regularly for at least the last five or six years. They said – my words rather than theirs – that the price is on a journey and, like a saw-tooth downward curve, it’s going to get ever closer to zero until, one day, it sticks at that price.

Well, sadly, yes.

And it’s quite some way along that curve as it would be worth about £400 if you wrote it down at 20% compound.

But in garage parlance, it’s worth zero when it fails its MOT and about £1,000 when it passes.

It doesn’t pass, of course but, as it costs about £700 to get it through, you could set your clock by that amount, the maths works but then the £1,000 then jiggles back towards zero again except when we fill the tank, in which case we can add an average of about 25% to its value.

Leaving a bit of parking money in the ashtray has a further positive impact but, before too long, it’ll be time to say goodbye.

Similarly, it’s the end of the first week back at work for many. The weekend is upon us and we’re told it will glorious. Have a good one and let’s move on to the news:

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ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS:

This piece was sent out to clients a couple of months ago. It remains current in that it is important to observe what firms, consumers and government are doing, as this could be more instructive than might be listening to the comments they are making.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Current trading:

UK Hospitality’s latest Quarterly Sales Tracker has reported that industry turnover was up 6.7% in the last year to £137 billion but, it says, ‘compared to 2019, remains almost 20% behind in real terms, when accounting for inflation.’ UKH says that ‘sales in the last year are 2.3% up on pre-pandemic sales. However, the quarterly growth rate is slightly down (0.2%) year-on-year….’

Industry developments:

Fleurets comments on recent trends in the hospitality industry over and after Covid saying that ‘one notable facet of the flexibility has been the increased availability of pavement licensing.’ It says that this has ‘continued to be a positive benefit to many’ and adds that ‘the recent extension of flexible pavement licensing until September 2024 has been welcomed by the sector….’

Alternative lending

Access to capital is becoming more difficult and interest rates have risen. Some companies are looking to innovative (maybe here read risky or untested) alternative sources of finance. Peripheral though it is to hospitality, it is interesting to note that Funding Circle, which reported H1 numbers yesterday, slipped to a first half loss as a result of the slowdown in the economy and less Covid lending….

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Business expectations (somewhat lower inflation)

A Bank of England survey has found that output prices are expected to increase by 4.9% over the next 12 months, down 0.5 percentage points from the July reading and well below the 6.6% September peak last year. The outlook for wage growth also fell to an average of 5.1%, down from its peak of 6% at the end of 2022….

Other news:

Cost of living crisis. A poll undertaken by Which has found that around 80% of mortgage holders and renters are now worried about rising housing costs. Which said the figure was the highest in the 10-year history of its monthly Consumer Insight Tracker.

COMPANY NEWS:

Restaurant Group resignation. Restaurant Group has now officially confirmed the news broken by Sky that ‘the chairman of Wagamama’s parent company (Ken Hanna) is to step down after months of pressure from activist investors, even as its financial performance outpaces that of rivals.’ It says Mr Hanna will step down once a successor has been identified. Comment on RTN statement & Sky story…

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Hostmore plc has announced that CFO Alan Clark is to leave the company. He will ‘step down from both positions immediately, but will continue as an employee of the Company for six months to ensure a smooth transition for the business.’ The company reports that ‘Matthew Bibby, currently Finance Director of the Company, has been appointed Interim CFO.’

Itsu Ltd has reported its FY numbers for the period ended 29 December 2022 to Companies House. The accounts show a recovery in both turnover and profits year-on-year (YoY) as the level of pandemic-related disruption reduced. During the year, Itsu opened a record 15 new shops: 8 equity and 5 franchise shops in the UK, 1 EU airport shop and 1 shop in Paris in partnership with Groupe Bertrand….

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Flight Club Darts is to open in Edinburgh. The company has confirmed that it will be opening in St James Quarter on November 17 this year. It will be the brand’s second Scottish location.

Soho House, which arrived in North America over 20 years ago, has said that it intends to open further sites in the Americas.

Wetherspoon has entered into a partnership with Newcastle University Students’ Union which will see its Student Union bar, Luther’s Bar, have access to  the business model implemented by Wetherspoon at its pubs across the UK. With the introduction of the new refurbishment and catering offer, it is expected that 70 roles will be created in addition to the bar’s current 30 staff members.

Starbucks is making ‘good progress’ on its target of opening 100 new stores in the UK over the current year, with openings particularly focused on city and drive-thru locations. The coffee giant said referenced resilient trading, saying that it had ‘maintained strong, double-digit growth’ in the UK despite the cost of living crisis….

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

MPs have been warned that Britain is missing out on a £1bn pound “Brexit boost” if it does not reinstate VAT-free shopping for international tourists.

Eurostar expects as many as 600,000 passengers to travel from London St Pancras to Paris Nord or Lille Europe for the Rugby World Cup in France. As a result, the operator will lay on 50 extra services to meet this additional demand. The tournament kicks off today and will conclude in Paris on 28 October.

OTHER LEISURE:

G4M has updated on trading ahead of its AGM later today saying ‘we are pleased to report that trading during the financial year to date has been in line with the Board’s expectations.’ The company adds ‘we are prioritising increasing gross margins and cost base reduction to improve profitability, ahead of revenue growth. We are pleased with the progress being made in these areas, which has included driving significant cost efficiencies in our software development unit….’

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Shares in Apple fell yesterday on news that Chinese government workers have been banned from using iPhones at work.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

A study undertaken as a part of the World Values Survey has found that workers in the UK are some of the least job orientated people in the world. Work-life balance is more important in the UK than elsewhere.

Sterling mixed at $1.2488 and €1.1657. Oil lower at $89.37. UK 10yr gilt yield down 6bps at 4.48%. World markets mixed yesterday & London set to open some 4pts higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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