RTN (exits Leisure), Various Eateries, weather, trading, jobs market etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, though the heatwave kind of ended yesterday with thunderstorms in the north, it was more than a heat ripple and it’s to be hoped that the pubs’ tills were ringing.

And the rain had one positive consequence in that I couldn’t cut the grass.

Not that it’s likely to cut itself, of course, but if I can play a canny hand for another couple of weeks I might be able to kick the task forward to April next year and, as Daniel Kahneman says eloquently in his various studies of human behaviour, we’re wired to believe that bad stuff some way in the future may never happen.

Anyway, it’s the start of another action-packed week so, without further ado, let’s move on to the news:

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sent separately Fri 8 Sept 23:

RESTAURANT GROUP – SALE OF LEISURE DIVISION FOR MINUS £7.5M

The Restaurant Group has this morning announced the proposed sale of Leisure units to Big Table Group and our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline comments: The proposed sale was broken by Sky News over the weekend. RTN ‘announces that it has entered into an agreement in respect of the proposed sale of its Leisure business comprising of 75 trading sites and associated restaurant and management team employees to the Big Table Group.’

It says ‘as part of the transaction, The Restaurant Group will pay a cash contribution of £7.5m to the Big Table Group.  The transaction is expected to complete in early Q4 2023.’ TRG says ‘as part of the ongoing review of its strategic options, the Board of TRG have concluded that a sale of its loss making  Leisure business will significantly accelerate the Group’s core strategic goals.’

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

General trading, short term outlook:

Opus Business Advisory reports that the UK retail sector’s finances are deteriorating as Christmas approaches….

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Restaurant Online reports that CACI figures show that average transaction values (ATV) across the F&B sector have risen by 12% over the past two years, below the average rise in inflation of 16% over the same period….

• The only industry in which ATV fell was the pubs and bars sector, where ATV fell by 3%. Meanwhile, QSR restaurants posted strong performance over the period, with average ATV rising 14%.

Employment trends:

A survey by KPMG and the Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) has found that permanent hires fell at their fastest pace in more than three years, with temporary staff hires also falling for the first time since July 2020….

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The weather:

The Evening Standard reports that ‘the September heatwave has come as a “huge relief” for the hospitality sector after a miserable July and August.’ It says ‘soaring temperatures over the past week have “brought back the feelgood factor” for business owners across the industry….

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Taxation, demographics:

The IFS reports that the cost of honouring the triple-lock pension pledge could increase state spending by between £5-45bn a year by 2050….

WFH:

Lloyds of London states that workers should come into the office at least three days a week – and not just Tuesday to Thursday – in a stand against the current WFH shift….

Per MCA, the biggest growth leaders in the UK QSR industry are contemporary US brands such as Popeyes, Wendy’s, Wingstop and Shake Shack.  Lumina suggested that legacy chains must adapt to survive with strategic initiatives.

Per Startups.co.uk, NPD data shows that drive-thrus delivered £500m of additional sales between 2019 and August 2022. The space has seen a lot of attention from operators, with Costa Coffee set to spend £20m on such sites and Starbucks identifying drive-thrus as a key area of focus in the UK.

Other news:

Foodservice analyst Peter Backman calculates in theDelivery.World that around $20bn of food was wasted in the restaurant delivery ecosystem in 2022 equating to around 15 million tonnes of food waste. The food waste can be created in various ways, such as overproduction, inadequate packaging and customers overestimating their appetite.

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The Morning Advertiser reports that almost eight in ten pubs suffer from the theft of their glassware.

Discounts. M&B’s Sizzling Pub and Vintage Inns chains are both the end of the hot weather by offering 40% off mains this week, Monday to Thursday.

COMPANY NEWS:

Various Eateries PLC has announced that CEO Yishay Malkov ‘has agreed his resignation with the Board. He will step down from his role as director and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, and resign from all directorships in respect of Various Eateries companies with immediate effect.’

VARE says ‘despite his resignation, Yishay will be available to the Various Eateries team over the coming months to ensure a smooth transition period.’ The company reports that ‘Andy Bassadone will continue to lead the Group in his role as Executive Chairman with a strong focus on the growing Noci brand, while Rebecca Tooth will continue as Managing Director of Coppa Club….’

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Restaurant Group potential disposal. See above. All news here superseded by RTN comment that it had agreed to sell its Leisure Division to The Big Table Group for minus £7.5m.

Other news:

Starbucks has opened its 20,000th store outside of North America.

Turtle Bay has announced its first Scottish restaurant is to open in Glasgow.

Heartwood Collection has completed its acquisition of The White Horse, Dorking, a 56-bedroom Grade II. The multi-million pound investment will see the pub undergo refurbishment, set to open in early 2024.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Weekly reports that Advantage Travel Partnership trends show consumers are booking earlier than usual for 2024 in a bid to save money. Bookings for summer 2024 have made up 54% of all 2024 bookings so far followed by 46% for winter 2023-2024.

The CMA has provisionally found that some errors were made in a decision on how much Heathrow Airport can charge airlines….

The Foreign Office advises ‘if you are planning to travel to Morocco imminently we advise you check with your accommodation provider / tour operator to confirm arrangements before departure in case of disruption or damage resulting from the earthquake.’

Manchester Airports Group has reported that passenger numbers reached 96% of 2019 pre-Covid levels in August. The group operates three airports, Manchester, Stansted and East Midlands which, between them, serviced 6.5 million passengers in the month of August, up 13% year-on-year. Stansted is at 102% of 2019, Manchester is at 93% and East Midlands is at 100% of the same month pre-Covid.

Advantage Travel has commissioned a poll of holiday intentions and says that 70% of people aged between 18 and 24 are “somewhat or very likely” to change the time of year they travel, as a result of changing weather patterns.

OTHER LEISURE:

Sportech has announced that it proposes the ‘cancellation of admission of its ordinary shares of 10p each to trading on AIM’ and re-registration as a private limited company. It says it ‘has undertaken a review to evaluate the benefits and drawbacks to the Company and its shareholders of its admission to trading on AIM’. It says it has ‘acknowledged the significant burdens (financial and non-financial) associated with its status as a publicly traded company’ and says that it believes the ‘Cancellation and Re-registration are in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders as a whole.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The British Chambers of Commerce reports that ‘most businesses are in the dark about a looming “avalanche” of changes in EU-UK trade regulations…’

Sterling mixed at $1.2508 and €1.1656. Oil up at $90.56. UK 10yr gilt yield down 6bps at 4.42%. World markets mixed to better on Friday with Far East lower in Monday trade. London set to open around 24pts higher as at 6.30am.

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