Fever Tree, Gym Group, PPHW, RTN, jobs & wages, trading & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We took part in a pub quiz when on holiday a couple of weeks ago and came a thoroughly creditable, in our view, fourth bottom out of about fifteen.

And we was robbed into the bargain as, don’t want to point any fingers here, but Google might have been putting in some overtime elsewhere in the room and we played it straight and we still insist that mauve is one of the colours of Love Heart sweets in addition to purple.

Because it’s not red, is it?

We’re just not having it. It’s mauve and then we forgot to fill in one of the answers, even though we knew it so tied for fifth bottom would have been a fairer reflection of our performance.

Anyway. Best drop it, I was told. On to the news:

LANGTON EMAIL:

The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade.

Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN

THE CONSUMER: Pay, Jobs & Confidence

Wages:

The ONS has reported on pay and employment levels saying that, in the quarter to July 2023, pay excluding bonuses was up by 7.8% (unchanged on last month)….

Employment:

The ONS reports a decrease ‘in the employment rate compared with the previous quarter (February to April 2023) while the unemployment and economic inactivity rates increased…’

Unemployment:

The ONS reports ‘the UK unemployment rate was estimated at 4.3%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous quarter and 0.3 percentage points higher than before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic…’

Job losses and consumer confidence:

The GMB union has confirmed that all 400 Wilko stores will close by early October after a rescue deal has fallen through. It is understood no bidders are interested in running shops under the Wilko name, although some parties are interested in rebranding their stores. The first Wilko shop closures will begin today…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

CGA data shows that on premise drink sales are ‘virtually flat’, up just 0.4% YoY for the week ending 2 September, following growth of 1% and 5% in the previous two weeks respectively. CGA said that there are ‘high hopes’ that a hot September will make for a ‘much better month’ for operators and suppliers…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

The Oxford Partnership has reported that ‘the recent heatwave continued across the country on Friday and Saturday leading to strong sales in the UK on trade.’ It adds that ‘this was undoubtedly helped by consumers keen to head to the pub with their friends to watch the opening games of the Rugby World Cup 2023 and, of course, England playing Ukraine at Wembley as a Euro 24 qualifier.’ The Partnership reports that revenues on Friday and Saturday grew by +6.1%…

Footfall:

Springboard has reported that ‘the amazing weather last week provided a marginal boost to footfall across UK retail destinations last week in comparison with the same week last year, but it failed to move the dial in terms of an uplift from the week before.’ Springboard says ‘with the start of the school summer term footfall dropped noticeably last week from the week before across all three key destination types.’

Demographic issues / cost of living:

The Telegraph reports that Hamptons estate agent forecasts that rents will rise by 25% over the next 4 years, with the average rent expected to reach £1,600 per month by the end of 2026. This data indicates that renters are being disproportionately squeezed as house prices in the same time period are forecast to increase by just 5.5%. Renters tend to be a younger demographic….

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Food costs:

BBC Wales reports that farmers are struggling to source seasonal labour. This is anecdotal at the moment. More visas have been made available. Any reduction in the harvest will be inflationary.

Other news:

The government has announced an 18-month extension to the easing of licensing regulations that currently allow pubs, restaurants and bars to sell alcohol for takeaway and outdoor consumption without applying for new licenses. Minister Chris Philp says ‘it is vital that we do everything we can to support British pubs. They are a cornerstone of every community, and a beating heart in our growing economy…

COMPANY NEWS:

Fever Tree has reported H1 numbers to end June saying that revenue rose by 9% to £175.6m. The company reports adjusted EBITDA more than halved (down 54%) at £10.2m and reports PBT of £1.4m compared with £17.6m last year. The company reports diluted EPS of 1.2p (2022: 12.1p) and a dividend up 2% at 5.74p (2022: 5.63p)….

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Wendy’s is to return to Leeds after an absence of over 20yrs with its new unit there set to be the largest in the UK.

Restaurant Group shares reacted positively to news that the company was to dispose of its remaining Leisure Division sites to The Big Table Group for minus £7.5m. RTN shares rose by around 6% in early trade and held their gains through the day.

St Austell Brewery has acquired the Bath Pub Company for an undisclosed sum. The deal will see St Austell add four sites to its currently 184-strong West Country pub estate.

Alistair Darby, formerly CEO of both SA Brain and Mitchells & Butlers, is to be appointed CEO of Sir Richard Sutton Limited, which owns luxury hotels, farming and property interests in the UK and USA…

The MCA reports that Dishoom’s launch of its first drinks-led venue is a passion project for both MD Brian Trollip and CEO Shamil Thakrar….

Rekom UK chairman Peter Marks states value is what keeps clubbers coming out amid the cost-of-living crisis, with research commissioned by nightclub company showing nearly 35% have cut back on the number of times they go on nights out since autumn 2022….

Dunkin’ plans to double its 30-strong UK estate over the next two years, opening 10 new outlets by the end of 2023. The coffee chain is set to open a string of new stores in the capital, starting with a flagship store on Wardour Street in September.

Derbyshire-based Jacksons the Bakers entered administration due to difficult trading conditions. The company has been sold in a pre-pack to an unidentified buyer, saving 56 jobs.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

PPHE Hotel Group has announced the opening of the premium lifestyle art’otel Zagreb in early October 2023. It says ‘the opening follows the art’otel brand’s successful London debut at Battersea Power Station earlier this year, with another two art’otels set to open in London Hoxton (Q1 2024) and Rome (H1 2024)….’

Heathrow has reported that it handled 7.5 million passengers in August, slightly below the 7.6 million figure in July but 25 per cent up on the same month last year. The company reports ‘passenger satisfaction was higher than pre-pandemic’.

CNBC reports that a court filing shows the New York state attorney general stating that Donald Trump overstated his net worth by as much as $3.6bn between 2011 and 2021. Attorney general Letitia James is suing Trump, his adult sons, Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump, and the Trump Organization for $250m.

Hays Travel has acquired Just Go Travel and it to take on 45 of its 46 shops.

OTHER LEISURE:

The Gym Group has reported H1 numbers to end-June saying that revenue rose by 18.5% to £99.8m with adjusted EBITDA (with normalised rents) of £17.2m vs £17.0m last and an adjusted loss before tax of £5.2m (2022: loss £4.7m). The company reports an adjusted loss per share of 2.9p against a loss of 0.8p in H1 last year…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Sportech’s shares dropped 37p (38%) yesterday on news that the company was to delist from AIM.

Sovereign Centros has announced the opening of Hollywood Bowl at Merry Hill, occupying 36,000 sq ft on the upper level and featuring 24 dedicated bowling lanes, including six exclusive VIP lanes.

Worcester Warriors fans claim there are new bidders for the club as its previously announced sale to Atlas drags on and the club remains in administration. Begbies Traynor, the administrators, have said that Atlas had so far paid £2.05m and are required to pay a further £1m by 9 October.

The BBC reports that HMRC has lodged a bankruptcy petition against former Liverpool and England footballer John Barnes….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For wage and unemployment data, see The Consumer above Pubs & Restaurants.

A survey undertaken by accountant BDO has suggested that companies are cutting back on new hires and reducing output in response to rising interest rates…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Tax rises could boost inflation, say a number of retailers. In a letter to the Chancellor, bosses of Tesco, Aldi, Ikea, Greggs, M&S and many other retailers have said that, if they face an increase in business rates of £400m or so next year, they will have to pass price rises on to customers…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

The ONS has calculated that UK workers are working around 45 minutes a week less than they did before the pandemic. In the absence of productivity increases, this will be inflationary.

Sterling slightly down at $1.2508 and €1.1646. Oil up at $90.93. UK 10yr gilt yield up 7bps at 4.49%. World markets better yesterday & London set to open around 9pts higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.