SSPG, CPC, Airbnb, Dalata, High Street, inflation, transport strikes etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Given that it’s dark when we get up these days, we maybe didn’t need the supermarkets to remind us that the world is turning and that Winter is Coming.

But they still feel the need to put out, not only the Halloween stuff, which is bound to proliferate over the coming weeks, but also the first shreds of what will become ultimately prodigious quantities of Christmas bumph.

And this started in August.

It’s disguised for the moment, of course, there aren’t aisles and aisles of Santa costumes.

But there are huge banks of Quality Street tins and, given that aunties and the like almost certainly buy 99% of them to thrust at the postman and sundry younger relatives at Christmas time, it’s clear what that’s all about.

And the pubs are getting in on the act.

They have some justification, of course as Christmas parties etc need some planning. But even I can buy a tin of chocolates without checking my credit card limit and consulting a my diary and a Project Management template.

Anyway, it will only get worse. It’s the autumn equinox today. Let’s move on to the news:

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SSP GROUP – FULL YEAR UPDATE:

SSP has updated on full year trading (September year-end) and out comment thereon are set out below: Trading: The company reports that ‘strong underlying trading momentum is expected to continue through to the end of the financial year.’ It says this leaves ‘SSP well-positioned to deliver results at the upper end of the ranges previously indicated for both revenue and EBITDA (underlying pre-IFRS 16).’

SSP says ‘revenue for the last 16 weeks of the year (from 12 June to 30 September) is expected to be at c.116% of 2019 levels, on a constant currency basis.’ It says ‘this represents an underlying improvement in trading since our statement on 21 June (covering the 10-week period from 1 April to 11 June), where trading was at 112% of 2019 levels on a constant currency basis.’

SSP says ‘our revenue performance is being driven by the continued recovery in passenger numbers, particularly in the air sector, as well as our stronger customer offer and digital proposition. In addition, revenues have benefitted from price increases and further net contract gains.’

Regional performance: The company says North America is at 127% of 2019 and says ‘in Continental Europe, revenues are expected to be at c.115% of 2019 levels.’ The Rest of the World is at 132%. And ‘in the UK and Ireland, sales are expected to strengthen to c.100%, reflecting both the improving performance and the higher mix of the air channel, despite the rail sector continuing to be impacted by ongoing industrial action….’

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Vacancy rates:

Looking at the wider retail market, The Local Data Company reports net closures for retail chains have reached their lowest level since 2017, with the retail market seeing closures up 11% YoY in H1 to 27,504 and openings reaching 23,504 in the same period….

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Food inflation:

UK CPI fell to 6.7% in August, with prices for milk, cheese, eggs and vegetables falling last month, but  the price of bread and cereals rose. The fall in the CPI rate was driven by a slowdown in overall food prices as well as a drop in air fares and accommodation costs. Some in hospitality have pointed out that we are currently experiencing ‘the wrong sort of inflation…’

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Commenting on inflation to the BBC, Loungers’ CEO Nick Collins says rising prices have forced the chain to put up prices by 8% across the business over the last year. He says ‘In normal years, we’d increase our prices by around 1.5% or 2%.’ He says, however, that there has been ‘absolutely no shift in customer behaviour’ and denies that people are ‘tightening their belts’…

Tube strikes:

Keen perhaps to join the party, the RMT union has announced a strike involving thousands of London Underground workers between 4-6 October. The union has been locked in a row over the plans to cut 600 station staff….

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The consumer – disposable income:

The FCA has said that some 485,000 mortgage holders will see their fixed rate mortgage deals expire in Q4  this year. Given the differential in fixed rate deals between now and 2021 (taking a 2yr deal as a measure), this could lead to additional costs per remortgaging household of around £336 per month – or £4,032 to be found out of after-tax income…

Business rates:

Industry leaders have been commenting on the upcoming proposed rise in business rates with Kate Nicholls at UKH saying ‘in the current economic climate, rates rising with inflation, coupled with reliefs ending, would be catastrophic for businesses. It is unthinkable for the government to press ahead with its current plans, which will mean an almost billion-pound bill for the sector….’

Other news:

The Scottish government will consult on a proposal to raise the minimum unit price of alcohol to 65p.A 50p minimum price per unit was introduced in 2018, but that legislation will expire in April 2024….

A court decision in the US has enabled food delivery companies to sue New York City over its current food delivery commission cap…

COMPANY NEWS:

City Pub Group has reported H1 numbers for the 26 weeks to 25 June saying that revenue for the period was £31.7m, up 21% on last year with adjusted EBITDA of £4.4m (down 3%). Adjusted PBT is £0.8m, down 34% against last year.

The company says ‘since the last statement at the AGM in June, the business has continued to strengthen its financial position and trading has remained strong.’ It says ‘this is despite the poor weather in July and early August and the continuation of train strikes….’

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The MCA reports that Tim Hortons plans to launch a new franchise model in the UK will predominantly focus on drive-thrus as a ‘channel of growth and opportunity’, according to CCO Kevin Hydes. The Canadian coffee chain and QSR brand also indicated that it is interested in opportunities to work in UK travel networks and High Street locations.

Per Australia media sources, Pernod Ricard has instructed two investment banks to conduct a strategic review of its Australia and New Zealand business, with a change of control expected to occur before the year end. Iconic label Jacob’s Creek is expected to be a drawcard for the current deal.

ARC Inspirations CEO Martin Wolstencroft comments on recent trading, saying ‘the business continues to track ahead of the market as we move into the new financial year, which is extremely encouraging for future performance….’

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Westminster City Council has suggested that it would like to introduce an “overnight levy” for tourists in order to monetise the surge in Airbnb lettings. It says overnight visitors should be seen to be “playing their part” in providing council services….

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Hotel company Dalata announces that ‘it has agreed contracts with Zien Group, to acquire the entire issued share capital of American Hotel Exploitatie BV…which holds the operational lease of the Hard Rock Hotel Amsterdam American.’ It says ‘contracts are expected to exchange and complete in early October and Dalata will immediately commence operating the hotel as the Clayton Hotel Amsterdam American…’

Travel Trade Gazette reports that GlobalData figures reveal that the volume of travel and tourism business deals worldwide was down by 36% between January and August standing at 482 deals….

The government has launched a package holiday consultation to ensure more choice and more competitive prices for customers. The 12-week consultation will look at whether reforming domestic package holidays will boost the UK’s domestic tourism.

Property advisor Knight Frank reports that London hotels achieved their highest occupancy levels since October 2019, with ADR ahead of inflation in July at +26% compared to July 2019.

Anabel Díaz, head of Uber’s European mobility division, has warned that Brussels’ proposal to classify gig workers as de facto employees could result in the ride-hailing giant stalling to a halt in ‘hundreds’ of European cities and spiking prices by up to 40% in others.

OTHER LEISURE:

Microsoft documents lodged in its recent legal action against the US Federal Trade Commission (in order to be allowed to purchase Activision) have reportedly leaked non-public details of forthcoming hardware releases.

The Federal Trade Commission has ruled that, from today, parents in the US whose children purchased items in popular game Fortnite without their permission, will be able to claim a refund.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The US Federal Reserve, as expected, announced it was leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged (albeit at a 22-year high rate) yesterday. The Fed says its federal funds rate would remain in a range of 5.25 to 5.5%.

The Bank of England’s MPC announces its interest rate decision later today. Given inflation’s surprise fall yesterday, it is said to be on a knife-edge. See bond rate movement below.

Sterling weaker at $1.232 and €1.158. Oil lower at $92.88. UK 10yr gilt yield down 11bps to 4.24% on fears / hopes that the Bank of England will not put rates up again today. World markets heading lower yesterday & London set to open around 70pts lower (but cutting losses) as at 6.30am.

The ONS has reported that house prices in London fell by 0.8% in the year to July. The decline will be considerably greater in real terms. The Halifax, Rightmove and others have pointed to larger declines.

PM Rishi Sunak has announced proposals to row back on green measures in order to avoid further damage to the economy.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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