Seedrs, Hostmore, Flight Club, late-night market, the economy & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Broadly speaking, the dog and I have the same attitude towards art; basically that, if you can’t eat it (the dog) or prop a wobbly table up with it (yours truly), what’s the earthly use?

However, I’m by no means impervious, it would appear.

Because, when a van Gogh appeared unannounced as my Windows lock-screen, it knocked me back.

I couldn’t help but notice how striking it was.

I’m fighting against the desire to rabbit on about the texture, the contours and colour contrasts, the deep emotions etched into the canvas, the trauma, the desperation and the almost visible internal outrage the man felt as his sanity crumbled…

So I’ll keep that to myself but it was a good drawing nonetheless.

Anyway, it’s Friday, it’s not raining and the weekend is almost upon us. Have a good one & let’s move on to the news:

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CGA – UPDATE ON UK NIGHTCLUB MARKET:

CGA has updated on the UK nightclub industry saying that around a third have disappeared since Covid. It says ‘Covid and changing consumer habits have led to a sharp drop in Britain’s nightclubs as consumers’ high tempo habits diversify and shift towards a broader range of outlet types and periods of the day.’

Stats: Data from CGA and Alix Partners in their latest Hospitality Market Monitor shows a 30.0% net decline in nightclubs between the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 and June 2023. The research suggests ‘this is more than double the 13.0% drop in all licensed premises over the same period….’

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Support for pubs:

A report by think-tank Localis urges the UK government to provide greater support for pubs through tax rebates, arguing they are vital community spaces that combat isolation and bring people together. The report advocates reinstating a Minister for Pubs role to coordinate help for the sector….

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Regarding the consumer:

The average interest rate on a 5-year fixed mortgage in the UK has fallen below 6% for the first time since July, a positive sign amid the cost of living crisis, though 2.4 million fixed-rate mortgages are due to expire between last July and the end of 2024, according to UK Finance.

Winding up petitions:

The Times writes that figures from Company Watch show that HMRC is getting increasingly bolshy, petitioning courts to wind up 1,522 businesses for not paying tax owed in the year to Aug, up from 351 in the same period last year. British Gas Trading is ranked 2nd most active this year, with 40 petitions.

Other news:

The Morning Advertiser comments on the Late Night Levy, which was introduced in 2011, and quotes Poppleston allen as saying ‘clearly against the backdrop of high inflation, soaring business costs and a challenging economic environment, the leisure and hospitality sector would prefer the levy be scrapped altogether – it is another financial burden placed upon the sector during what continues to be a tough time for operators….’

COMPANY NEWS:

Hostmore, which operates the TGI Friday sites in the UK, has reported H1 numbers for the 26 weeks to 2 July saying that revenue slipped from £98.5m last year to £93.6m. The company reports a loss before tax of £10.8m (2022: loss £17.1m) and a loss per share of 8.5p (2022: loss per share 10.6p).

The company says that the period was a transitional one, with new management appointed. It says that its H1 revenue, adjusted for differences in VAT, was only 2% down versus H1 2022 and adds that H2 revenues to date (24 Sept) were up 2% vs last year. It says cost reductions are ongoing and says that the ‘cost inflation of purchased inputs, including food, drinks, and utilities, [is] now stabilising with significant portion under long-term contracts or hedged at favourable prices…’

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Flight Club Darts Ltd has reported numbers for the year to 25 December 2022 to Companies’ House saying that revenues rose from £24.6m to £53.8m. The company reports an operating profit of £3.8m (2021: £134,000) before interest costs of £6.9m. Some £1.55m of the charge related to bank interest but the bulk, £5.35m. was convertible loan interest.

RedCat Pub Company is to appoint Richard Lewis as CEO. He will take over from Phil Birbeck. Lewis was former chief operating officer at Greene King, with his last role being UK & Ireland CEO for SSP. RedCat has acquired over 100 pubs and pub hotels with over 1,400 rooms since its inception in February 2021.

Seedrs Ltd has reported its FY numbers for the period ended 31 December 2022 to Companies House. Revenue fell by 15.4% YoY to £6.9m, with the revenue decrease driven by a combination of lower deal and investment volume, fees per deal and a drop in performance of other associated investor revenues. Similarly, gross profit fell by 15.2% to £6.8m.

Operating losses at Seedrs significantly widened to £8.0m from £2.7m in the prior year, with the increase in part owing to “increased investment into core business operations, as well as development of growth initiatives, particularly in view of opportunities created by the acquisition…’

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Salford-based brewer and pub operator Hydes announced record turnover of £34.1m for 2022/23, up from £28.3m the previous year, despite challenging economic conditions including high inflation and energy costs….

Panera Brands has appointed its Board Member Patrick Grismer as Lead Independent Director as the JAB Holding-owned company moves towards becoming a public company. The appointments add financial and hospitality industry expertise to Panera’s board as it evolves its business in preparation for going public.

Gail’s Bakery estimates it has whitespace for 300-500 more sites in the UK and will explore different models to expand the brand…

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Guinness is opening its second US brewery, Guinness Open Gate Brewery and taproom in Chicago on September 29, featuring experimental draught beers alongside classics like Guinness Draught Stout produced on-site at the 15,000 sq ft facility located in a former railway depot.

JW Lees has launched its ‘latest creation, ‘Light’’. It says the ‘refreshing and vibrant 3.4% draught lager’ is ‘perfect for those seeking a quality yet approachable beer option.’

Giggling Squid is to open a site in Shrewsbury in December

Scottish brewer Innis & Gunn posted turnover growth of 7.8% to £22.7 million for the year ending December 2022, crediting the recovery of on-trade business after pandemic closures, as well as strategic investments in brand partnerships and new taproom openings….

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Global hotel occupancy has rebounded 10% above 2022 and is expected to grow 11% in Q4, with Europe projected to outpace the US for the first time, signalling worldwide occupancy recovery and stabilisation post-pandemic according to data from Amadeus. The data shows the hotel industry continues to normalise after COVID-19 disruption.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has warned the strong travel demand and higher airfares seen this summer “can’t continue…”

The Airports Council International has published its latest quarterly air travel outlook saying that global passenger traffic is expected to recover to pre-covid levels in early 2024 as it hits some 9.4 billion passengers. It goes on to say that recovery in Europe may slow down in 2023 and 2024…

Le Ski quotes YouGov research and says that some 1.28 million Brits will take a skiing holiday this winter, up from 1.12 million last year…

Signature Eden Limited, which owns the Dixie Dean Hotel in Liverpool, entered administration on 5 August 2022. It was unable to repay its debt to its secured creditor, Lyell Trading Limited. Joint administrators say that trading has been adversely impacted by rail strikes, the cost of living crisis, exceptional costs and payments.

OTHER LEISURE:

Sky News reports that US private equity firm Dynasty Equity has taken a minority stake in Liverpool Football Club….

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888 Holding’s shares dropped 13% yesterday after the company warned on short term profitability.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The CBI reports that the private sector in the UK is unlikely to see any growth between now and Christmasa. It says ‘private sector activity fell slightly in the three months to September, according to the CBI’s latest Growth Indicator. This month’s contraction matched the pace of decline seen last month and extended the mild downturn seen over the last year…’

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The IFS reports that it believes there is a 90 per cent chance that UK public borrowing in 2027/28 will be ahead of OBR estimates. It says the excess could amount to some £40bn. The IFS says that ‘in 100,000 simulations of future shocks and subsequent policy responses, we estimate that there is just a one-in-ten chance that borrowing in 2027–28 turns out lower than the OBR forecast.’

The SMMT reports that car production fell by almost 10% in August after six months of growth.

LSEG Deals Intelligence reports that corporate dealmaking in the UK has fallen to a 14-year low. LSEG says ‘we are seeing double-digit percentage declines for both the domestic and cross-border deal categories, and declines have been recorded across all sectors.’

Zoopla reports that UK house sellers are having to cut asking prices to source buyers. It says the average discount to the asking price rose to 4.2% in September, the highest since 2019. The discount was 4.8% in London….

Sterling mixed at $1.222 and €1.1548. Oil price down a little at $95.05. UK 10yr gilt yield sharply higher at 4.59% (up around 20bps). Markets broadly better yesterday and London set to open around 3pts higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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