City Pub Group, Carnival, Booking.com, Entain, rates, strikes, WFH etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Why is it that our internet at home, which is on the end of a 200yd stretch of 90yr old copper wire that goes through a ploughed field and which has been dug up, cut, shaken and stirred by diggers, tractors and the like for almost a century, is faster that it is for the lads in their our London flat?

Because, last checked, London is a large financial centre with a broadly functioning infrastructure.

And thousands of miles of fibre criss-cross the capital, much of it coming within feet of our door and yet I almost expect to hear those screeching noises you got from dial-up modems when they were all you could have twenty years ago or so every-time I go online.

So, get it working, would you?

That’s my respectful request. I have others, of course but, for the moment, the former would be nice. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Train Strikes ‘could hit Christmas’:

Whether it is posturing or not, the hospitality industry will be concerned by news that the UK train drivers’ union threatens Christmas strikes amid an ongoing pay dispute with train companies and the government. The Rail Delivery Group, which represents the train companies, said its offer remained on the table.

Disposable incomes:

Incomes: The Asda Income Tracker saw disposable incomes increase by 6.8% YoY to £224 in August, in line with the annual CPI increase of 6.7% in the same month. Less well off consumers are still being disadvantaged….

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Living wage. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is today expected to confirm that the national living wage will increase to more than £11 per hour. He is speaking today at the Tory Party Conference. His speech comes some six weeks ahead of his autumn financial statement. He is thought also likely to confirm a tightening of the UK’s benefits system…..

Tax: The IFS forecasts that the national tax burden will reach 37% of GDP by 2024, up from 33% in 2019. The IFS states that this 4% increase in 4 years is the biggest leap during a parliament since comparable records began and claims that this huge increase is not the result of pandemic spending but the result of political choices….

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Essential spending: Cornwall Insight predicts UK household energy bills will increase by £73 to £1,996 in January 2023 due to rising wholesale energy prices, after decreasing from October under the current price cap.

The price of a first class stamp has now risen to £1.25 from £1.10, the third increase in the last 18 months. Royal Mail blames increased costs.

WFH:

The Evening Standard quotes Shepherd Neame CEO Jonathan Neame as saying that office workers are coming back, even on a Friday. HE also goes on to say that his pubs will not partake in any ‘surge pricing’ when demand is high….

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Other news:

A report by Localise and commissioned by the BBPA is calling for the UK government to reinstate the minister for pubs role to help the sector deal with challenges like rising energy costs, inflation, and closures. The pub industry is facing mounting pressures but contributes billions in economic activity and tax revenues annually.

In the US, California is raising the minimum wage for fast food workers to $20 per hour starting in 2023, which will be the highest in the industry….

As regards the wider US market, US trade press suggests customer traffic is slowing. Commentators point to higher interest rates dampening spend. In addition, students are having to pay their student debts once more and high levels of credit card debts. Same-store sales rose by 1.5% in August (down 1.3pps on July) but traffic fell by 3.0%, some 20bps worse than July…

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Business Rates. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who addresses the Tory Party Conference today, has been warned by retailers that businesses will pay an extra £1.56 billion in property bills from next year unless business rates are frozen again. The government’s calculations will be based on inflation in September.

A ban on some single-use plastic products came into force in England yesterday. Plastic cutlery will no longer be permissible.

COMPANY NEWS:

The City Pub Group plc has announced ‘the completion of the acquisition of two additional pubs in London’s Soho and in Oxford….’

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JD Wetherspoon has opened its new unit at Heathrow Airport on the site of the former Carluccio’s in Terminal 4 (airside). JDW points out ‘it is the company’s 2nd trading unit at Heathrow Airport and its 8th airport unit in the UK.’ It spent £500,000 developing the new unit, creating up to 60 full and part-time jobs.

Brakspear has appointed Marc Rawling as operations manager within its 10-strong managed pubs division, Honeycomb Houses.

Five Guys plans major UK expansion with 150 new locations, focusing on travel hubs like train stations and airports to capture transient customers throughout the day. Despite a reputation for higher prices, the burger chain believes it offers an “affordable luxury” and is tuning its pricing strategy based on customer feedback.

Loungers, a leading UK café-bar operator, has partnered with drinks distributor C&C Group to stock Menabrea beer across 235 Lounges and Cosy Club venues nationwide. The Italian premium lager will be served on draft, offering customers high-quality beer with heritage in Loungers’ informal, all-day settings.

Alcohol giant Pernod Ricard’s venture arm Convivialite Ventures has invested $5 million in Boisson, a leading US non-alcoholic beverage retailer. This investment signals major spirits industry support for the fast-growing non-alcoholic drink market, now valued at over $11 billion globally. Boisson curates top non-alcoholic brands for retail, e-commerce and wholesale.

Golf Fang Collective has opened its newest venue, a Big Fang Karaoke unit, in Liverpool.

Moody’s reports that Wm Morrison Supermarkets’ earnings report for its Q3 is a credit positive statement. It says ‘however, key credit metrics remain weak for the rating, with Moody’s-adjusted gross debt to EBITDA of 7.8x and EBIT to interest of 0.7x for the last 12 month (LTM) period….

HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Carnival on Friday reported record-high quarterly revenue but costs proved to be a drag on profitability. It reported a Q3 profit of $1.07 billion, or 79 cents per share, compared with a loss of $770 million, or 65 cents per share last year…

The Guardian reports that ‘travel website Booking.com has left many hotel operators and other partners across the globe thousands of dollars out of pocket for months on end, blaming the lack of payment on a “technical issue”’…

OTHER LEISURE:

Entain has announced the completion of its acquisition of Angstrom Sports, a specialist provider of next generation sports modelling, forecasting and data analytics. The company reports ‘as announced on 17 July 2023 (Link), the initial consideration of £81 million was payable on completion, with additional contingent payments totalling a maximum of £122 million, payable over three years….’

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Two major UK gambling companies, Flutter Entertainment and Playtech, are engaged in a £500m bidding war to acquire PlanetWin365, a large Italian gaming rival….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

See Pubs & Restaurants for comments on upcoming tax burden.

The US government narrowly avoided a financial shutdown over the weekend.

Inflation in the Eurozone fell to 4.3% in September, the lowest level since October 2021. The number is down from 5.2% in the year to August….

ONS GDP revisions on Friday now suggest that the UK recovery from the pandemic was faster than previously believed. UK GDP is now thought to be 1.8% above pre-pandemic levels by Q2 this year….

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Lloyds has updated on UK business confidence saying that it declined in September as optimism faded. Lloyds’ Business Barometer fell to 36% from August’s 18-month high of 41%….

Brexit-backing Dragons’ Den investor Duncan Bannatyne has said that Sir Keir Starmer is the “best of two bad candidates” to be PM. He says he does not think that the ‘Conservative Party could run a government’. Boss of Iceland supermarkets, Richard Walker, has quit the Tory Party saying that it is ‘out of touch’.

Sterling mixed at $1.2187 and €1.1529. Oil price lower at $92.32. UK 10yr gilt yield down to 4.42% after brief spike on Friday. Markets heading lower on Friday & London set to open down around 22pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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