Tortilla (H1), GRG (Q3s), Burger & Lobster, rail strikes, food inflation etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Meetings yesterday.

Preparing, taking part in, recovering from, noting up etc have left us short of time.

So, let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Rail strikes, threat to Christmas (again):

Thirty-seven major UK hospitality companies signed a letter urging rail unions to avoid strikes over Christmas, arguing it would cost the sector £400 million and significantly disrupt businesses, workers, and families….

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MD of Dishoom, Brian Trollop, has told The Caterer that the group could lose 3,500 bookings over Christmas if there are further train strikes during the festive period. He said at The Casual Dining Show ‘I think [train strikes are] going to potentially nail the hospitality sector very, very badly over the Christmas period’.

Inflation:

The British Retail Consortium reports that food prices in September are down 0.1% from August in the first fall in prices for two years. The BRC says that fierce competition between supermarkets is behind the fall. It says that prices of staples such as dairy goods, margarine, fish and vegetables, all fell…

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The CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index showed a slowdown in food inflation for a third consecutive month in August, but it remains above 20% year-on-year. CGA says ‘price increases have slowed in both foodservice and supermarkets in recent months. However, the rate of easing has been faster in retail, as month-on-month inflation in supermarkets as measured by the Consumer Prices Index stood at just 0.3% in August—compared to 0.8% in the Foodservice Price Index….’

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Elsewhere, the government says that the introduction of new Brexit border controls next year will cost business (and ultimately the consumer) some £330m per year in red tape and additional charges.

Trading:

On-premise drinks sales in the UK were down 3% year-on-year last week according to CGA, the first decline since mid-August, attributed to tough comparisons from last year’s Queen’s funeral bank holiday boost….

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Other news:

Consumers cutting back: The BBC Good Food Nation survey has found that many UK families are turning to cheaper, less nutritious ready meals and processed foods while cutting back on organic, protein, and home cooking due to soaring costs….

COMPANY NEWS:

Tortilla H1. Swings into loss but trading in-line and expansion opportunities remain. Tortilla has reported H1 numbers saying that its ‘resilient trading supports [its] FY 2023 expectations’. The company reports revenues up 22% at £32.7m with LfL growth of 5.0% . It says that LfL growth on a VAT-adjusted basis was 8.4%.

The company reports adjusted EBITDA of £1.8m (H1 last year £2.5m) and says it is trading in line with expectations. The loss before tax is £0.6m compared to a profit last year of £0.3m). The company says it has made ‘good progress on UK new store openings with three opened in H1 FY22’ and says it has managed the ‘successful integration of [the] Chilango business…’

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Gregg’s Q3. No change to forecasts. Gregg’s has updated on its Q3 trading, saying that total sales are up 20.8% in the 13wks to 30 September. It says LfL sales are up 14.2% and adds that it has opened 82 shops year to date. The co believes it will open between 135 and 145 in the full year.

Gregg’s says it has ‘continued to enjoy a strong trading performance over the third quarter’ and says that ‘evening trade (sales post-4pm) represented 8.8% of company-managed shop sales for the 13 weeks to 30 September 2023 (H1 2023: 8.3%).’ It adds that ‘investment in our supply chain is progressing well, supporting our ambitious growth plans.  A fourth production line will be commissioned at Balliol Park in Newcastle upon Tyne in the coming weeks…’

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Diageo has announced that it has launched two bonds adding up to a $1.7bn fixed rate, US$-denominated issue.

Whisky company William Grant & Sons reports turnover up 22% YoY to £1.7bn and profit after tax up 34% to £331m, with the company reaching pre-pandemic profitability once again. The company operates across 200 markets globally and owns brands such as Glenfiddich, The Balvenie, Hendrick’s Gin and Monkey Shoulder.

Pizza Pilgrims has announced that it is to open in Leeds in mid-November.

Urban Pubs & Bars is to open its 43rd site, and its first in a transport hub, this month in London’s Waterloo Station.

The MCA reports that Vagabond bars is exploring using AI to create a ‘frictionless guest experience’ including a personalised app with wine recommendations. The UK self-pour wine bar group believes AI has huge potential for its business in improving the guest journey through data-driven personalised offerings and automation.

Burger & Lobster reported turnover +47% YoY to £36.5m in the year to 1 January 2023, with EBITDA increasing to £2.2m from £1.8m the year prior….

HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

The UK is launching an Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) for visitors from Qatar this month and then subsequently extended to other gulf nations before being rolled out to all non-UK nationals not requiring a visa by the end of 2024….

Warner Leisure Hotels has expanded by acquiring two new landmark properties, The Forest of Arden Country Club near Birmingham and Dalmahoy Hotel and Country Club near Edinburgh….

Merlin Entertainments has announced that long-standing CFO Alistair Windybank intends to retire. He will will remain in place for at least his 12-month notice period and will continue to support the CEO and help in the search for a suitable successor.

OTHER LEISURE:

Sky News reports that Sir Jim Ratcliffe ’is contemplating buying a minority stake in Manchester United Football Club rather than seeking full control, in an effort to end a nearly 10 months-long process to resolve the club’s future ownership.’ He could take 25%.

Hollywood Bowl has acquired an existing site Lincoln. Ops director David Williams says ‘we are committed to investing in the centre’s future with centre-wide enhancements taking place early next year.’

PureGym has raised some £805m in refinancing in order to fund expansion. The chain heralded it as a “huge vote of confidence” in its expansion plans after its holding company Pinnacle Bidco completed the deal.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

S&P yesterday released manufacturing PMI numbers for the UK for September saying that the reading came in at 44.3, up from August’s 3yr low of 43.0 but still below the 50.0 mark at which a contraction is being signalled….

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The Nationwide yesterday reported that house prices in the UK fell by 5.3% in the year to September. The Halifax updates on Friday….

Politics: The CBI comments on chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s speech to the Tory Party Conference saying he is ‘[right to highlight the sound fundamentals of the UK economy’ but says he ‘must focus on stability and predictability to tip the balance for investors….’

Sterling weaker at $1.2064 and €1.1528. Oil price lower at $89.74. UK 10yr gilt yield sharply higher again at 4.56% (up 14bps). Global markets weak yesterday and London forecast to open some 22pts lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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