JDW conf call, DGE, Parkdean, Bill’s, Saga, tax, labour & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I can’t help thinking that those electric bikes, which must weigh about 100kg and one suffers to bomb around on the pavements at about 25mph, are a bit of a danger to health both because of their tendency to self-combust and the way that they are ridden.

I mean I know that the gig-workers and the like that often use them are on a tight schedule.

But surely that’s a problem that needs to be sorted out by the riders themselves, their employers, the restaurants supplying them with nosh and their customers with no need to involve a bunch of tired commuters who must be getting sick to death of being cut up and pushed into the road by said bikes on their way to the train station of an evening?

Maybe the riders should wear helmets, get driving licences, have insurance and stick to the roads where, every now and again, they might try to obey the rules.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The consumer – Stealth tax rises:

The Resolution Foundation reports that taxpayers will be paying an extra £40bn a year by 2028 as a result of the impact of inflation when personal tax allowances are frozen. The Resolution Foundation says this will be the country’s biggest tax rise in at least 50 years. Millions of people will either pay higher tax rates or see a larger proportion of their income subject to tax.

Labour – cost & access:

Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner has pledged to boost employment rights in what is being billed the “biggest upgrade in workers’ rights in a generation.” The CBI says ‘labour market flexibility is a key pillar of the UK’s competitiveness, driving better outcomes for everyone.’ It says business should be fair but adds that ‘poorly targeted legislation risks damaging a key strength of the UK economy without having the desired effect on living standards.’

Elsewhere, The Morning Advertiser reports operators as saying that staffing issues are the “biggest thing holding back growth” in the sector.

A survey by the British Chambers of Commerce has found that 73% of the companies it polled had faced hiring difficulties in Q3. This is down from the high of 82% in Q4 last year. Hospitality remails badly affected with 79% of firms having problems attracting staff…

COMPANY NEWS:

JD Wetherspoon analysts’ conference call – see below.

Diageo has announced that, as announced on 1 August 2023 with its full year numbers, the ‘functional currency of Diageo plc has changed from sterling to US dollar starting 1 July 2023 – with this change being applied prospectively’. The company says ‘this is because the group’s share of net sales and expenses in the US and other countries whose currencies correlate closely with the US dollar has been increasing over the years, and that trend is expected to continue in line with the group’s strategic focus….’

Bill’s Restaurants has reported full year numbers to 1 Jan 2023 to Companies’ House saying that revenues rose to £103.8m from £74.3m in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA slipped by 27% to £5.5m and the group made a loss before tax of some £12.3m (2021: loss £1.3m). The loss was after charging some £5.5m in impairments, a £1.3m loss on the disposal of assets and £2.8m in onerous leases…

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Troia Restaurants reported strong growth in sales and profits in 2022, driven by expanding The Ivy Asia brand and post-pandemic recovery, with turnover rising over 50% to £302m and pre-tax profit up 42% to £29m compared to pre-pandemic levels. The group launched 7 new restaurants and managed inflationary pressures through strategic pricing, while avoiding energy cost hikes due to fixed contracts.

St Peter’s Brewery is reported to be acquiring the Curious Brewery for an undisclosed sum. Curious Brewery was originally set up by Tenterden wine-maker Chapel Down.

Liberation Group has appointed Simon Griffiths as Operations Director to oversee Butcombe Pubs & Inns in England and Liberation Pubs & Bars in the Channel Islands; Griffiths has over 20 years of hospitality experience, previously working for Loch Fyne and Premium & Urban Pubs South in operations management roles.

HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Parkdean Resorts CEO Steve Richards reports that his network of parks has had a strong year despite seeing profits fall in the wake of new challenges. Mr Richards says that the company generated revenues of £534.4m in 2022, a 0.4% dip on the 2021 figure of £536.4m, which had benefited from the temporary post-Covid VAT relief….

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Saga has reported that ‘further to the announcement made on 27 September 2023 by Saga plc that Mike Hazell will become Group Chief Financial Officer when James Quin steps down, the effective date of appointment of Mike Hazell and resignation of James Quin as a statutory director is confirmed as 9 October 2023.’ The company says ‘James will remain with the business for a short period so that a detailed handover can take place.’

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the UK authorities have warned against all but essential travel to Israel.

B2B opportunity. TUI has appointed Nishank Gopalkrishnan as chief commercial officer of Tui Musement, with B2B having become one of the fastest-growing areas for Tui’s tours and activities…

Travelodge has entered a sublet agreement with fast food chain Popeyes Louisiana Chicken for a drive-thru restaurant at its Northampton Upton Way hotel…

The Sunday Times reports that Sun Communities, a $15bn US property REIT, has appointed receivers to holiday parks owned by Robert Bull. The Sunday Times says that the REIT ‘has hired insolvency specialists from accountancy firm PwC to recoup money from Robert Bull, who sprang from relative obscurity earlier this year to be named among the UK’s wealthiest individuals.’

STR reports that US hotel occupancy was up to 66.3%.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For Labour Party comments on the jobs market, see Pubs & Restaurants above.

The US added 336,000 jobs in September, nearly double expectations, with particularly strong growth in hospitality and service sectors…

The average UK house price suffered its biggest annual fall since 2009, dropping 4.7% in the year to September to £278,601 according to Halifax…

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The Resolution Foundation predicts the Bank of England will cut interest rates “much more quickly” than the Federal Reserve…

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UK business investment remains subdued according to a British Chambers of Commerce survey, with most firms reluctant to increase spending on machinery and technology due to high interest rates, labour shortages, inflationary pressures, and uncertainty from Brexit barriers to EU trade….

Sales of battery-powered vehicles in the UK dropped over 14% in September according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders…

Make UK has urged chancellor Jeremy Hunt to abandon his autumn statement, saying that the Tory Party’s constant “flip-flopping” on policy is a drag on investment…

Sterling mixed at $1.2193 and €1.1554. Oil up at $87.40. UK 10yr gilt yield up 4bps at 4.56%. World markets mixed to better on Friday. London set to open down around 2pts as at 6.30am.

JD WETHERSPOON – FULL YEAR NUMBERS:

JD Wetherspoon on Friday held its full year analysts’ call and our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers: JDW reports revenue for the year up 10.6% at £1.925bn. LfL sales, as the company has fewer pubs now open, were up 12.7%.

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Trading: JDW reports that average weekly sales per pub increased to £53k per week in FY23, up from £45.3k per week in FY22. The food:drink split increased to 39%:57% from 36%:60% in the prior year. Despite the fall in percentage terms, absolute spend on drink increased to £30.1k per pub per week, up from £28.1k in FY22. JDW said that sales of products that younger people tend to go for, such as cocktails, are a ‘little bit slower’, whereas sales of products that older customers tend to go for, such as cask ales & coffee, has been stronger. Regarding market share gains, the company attributed some of this to independents exiting the market….

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RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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