Inflation, closures, Thatcher’s Cider, Vagabond, McDonald’s & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I’ve read a number of books on crowd behaviour.

The Crowd, still a classic after 130 years, The Madness of Crowds, an interesting take from one end of the political spectrum and a couple of others, but it was only recently that I started to put two and two together.

And it was trying to read one or two of the French puns on the subject that did it for me as, in the language of our cross-channel cousins, FOL means CRAZY, FOU means MAD and FOULE means CROWD and, in addition to the words being rather easy to mix up, there’s a certain logic to that progression.

Because you may be crazy in the privacy of your own garret or garden shed, you may be truly mad when you venture out in public but it is arguably only when you’re in a crowd that you can become truly unmoored from reality and engage in calls for action and pursuits that you wouldn’t dream of doing singly or in smaller groups.

So beware crowds, is my suggestion. A single person might make you a cup of tea, a small group might rib you slightly but a crowd, well, who knows what might happen. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inflation:

The ONS has this morning reported that UK CPI fell to 3.4% in the year to February, down from 4.0% in January. The market had perhaps been hoping for a larger fall. The ONS says that CPI rose by 0.6% in February 2024, compared with a rise of 1.1% in February 2023. The large rise last year, which has dropped out of calculations, had fuelled the belief that the drop this month would be significant.

Restaurant prices weak. The ONS reports that ‘the largest downward contributions to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from food, and restaurants and cafes…’

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Brewery closures:

Audit, tax & advisory firm Mazars reports the number of UK breweries going insolvent has jumped 82% in the last year, rising from 38 in 2022 to 69 by December 31, 2023, with many smaller craft breweries bearing the brunt of market saturation, high interest rates, and inflation pressures….

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Pub closures:

Price Bailey reports a 48% surge in liquidations in the pub sector over the last year, with pub closures in the UK reaching their highest levels in over a decade in 2023….

WFH.

The pushback from employers continues as Dell has reversed its flexible working policies, warning hybrid and remote workers that they may face challenges in career advancement and promotions….

Other news:

According to Liv-ex data, Champagne experienced a slight increase in February, marking its first positive movement since October 2022 amid broader declines in the fine wine market. Liv-ex deputy chairman Justin Gibbs cautioned that it could also be a temporary rebound, with the overall fine wine market continuing its downward trend as the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index fell for the 11th consecutive month.

High Street fashion chain Ted Baker is set to be put into administration. Authentic Brands Group, which has owned Ted Baker since 2022, maintains that “damage done” during a tie-up with another firm was “too much to overcome”.

COMPANY NEWS:

Thatchers Ltd, which produces Thatcher’s Cider, has reported its FY numbers for the year ended 31 August 2023 to Companies House. Thatchers is the second largest cider maker in the UK. During the period, turnover increased but reduced margins led to a fall in operating profit as inflationary headwinds persisted. Turnover climbed by 12.7% YoY to £175.3m, with Thatchers stating that it “succeeded in growing its market share during the financial year”….

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Per Sky News, Majestic Wine, owned by Fortress Investment Group, is reportedly in advanced discussions to acquire Vagabond Wines, a London-based chain that recently filed for administration….

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McDonald’s reported yesterday that it plans add the executive chairman position to that of its CEO, Chris Kempczinski. The promotion will take place if shareholders vote it through at the company’s May annual meeting.

Greggs has clinched the title of Britain’s most admired restaurant and bar sector company, followed by McDonald’s in second place, with Fuller’s and Greene King sharing the third spot. Other top-ranking companies include Domino’s, Mitchells & Butlers, Marston’s, Young’s, Wetherspoon, Stonegate, and The Restaurant Group.

Hogs Back Brewery’s Little Swine 0.5% ABV pale ale has won 2 awards this month…

HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Consultancy firm Arup predicts unlocking Manchester airport’s true potential could give rise to 50 new long-haul flights and see 60 million passengers, according to its A Superhub for the North report….

Paul Griffiths, the boss of Dubai Airports and the former managing director of Gatwick Airport has claimed that Heathrow’s inability to expand means it has lost its status as a global transport hub….

In 2023, Amsterdam and New York topped the list as the most popular short-haul and long-haul destinations respectively for European business travellers….

The Guardian reports P&O Ferries has paid some crew members less than half the UK minimum wage, earning roughly £4.87 an hour. P&O controversially replaced many of its workers with agency staff two years ago, mostly hired from countries such as India, the Philippines and Malaysia.

OTHER LEISURE:

Research by the consumer body Which? has revealed that live music fans are being hit with hidden fees that can inflate the cost of concert and festival tickets by up to 25%….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For inflation, see Pubs & Restaurants above.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, is considered to have hinted at a general October. He told a Lords Committee the next spending review, which has to be completed before next April, will be tight ‘if the general election is in October.’

Sterling up at $1.2717 and €1,1701. Oil higher at $87.30. UK 10yr gilt yield down 4bps at 4.05%. World markets better yesterday. London set to open down around 7pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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