JDW, Shake Shack, Gatwick, Esken, confidence, inflation & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Early meetings, RNSs and, to be truthful, late St Patrick’s Day celebrations last night leave us a little pressed this morning so just time to say congratulations to everyone in making it to the end of another five day week.

There are now a couple of four-day ones to come, which is something of a relief.

Have a good weekend and let’s move on to the news: 

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JD WETHERSPOON – H1 RESULTS:

JD Wetherspoon has today reported H1 numbers and our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers: JDW has reported that LfL sales in H1 were up by 9.9% taking revenue to £991.0m vs £916.0m in the prior year. LfL bar sales were up 11.6%, food was up 7.6% and machines were up 10.5%. Room income rose by 2.8%. All bar accommodation are clearly well ahead of inflation implying real terms growth. Prior to property losses and other separately disclosed items, PBT is £36.0m against £4.6m last year with EPS up to 20.3p from 1.0p in FY23. There is no dividend (FY23: nil). Property losses in the half-year totalled some £15.2m (FY23: loss £11.7m). The FY24 loss is partially offset by depreciation add-backs on previously impaired assets of around £4.1m.

Current trading: The company reports that ‘sales continue to improve’ and it says that, in the last 7 weeks (to 17 March 2024) like-for-like sales rose by 5.8%. Re the outlook, the company says it anticipates a ‘reasonable outcome’ this…

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer confidence:

GfK has updated on UK consumer confidence saying it was unchanged at minus 21 in March. GfK asks ‘has confidence stalled or does the encouraging score on personal finances point a bright way forward….’

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Demographic issues:

ONS figures show the UK experienced its highest annual increase in average monthly rent, rising by 9% in the year to February. Rent prices surged in all regions, with England seeing a substantial 8.8% increase, Scotland 10.9%, and Wales 9%….

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Inflation and food & drink:

The ONS also reports UK inflation dropped to 3.4% in February 2024, marking its lowest level in over two years. While welcomed by some, concerns persist over higher food and drink inflation and ongoing business costs, with the annual rate for restaurants and hotels declining to 6%, largely influenced by reduced price hikes in alcohol….

The ONS has released its ‘average cost of a pint figures’, up 5.6% YoY in February to £4.70. Month-on-month lager prices saw a 0.2% hike, up from £4.69 in January this year. The Morning Advertiser reports that lager costs had soared by 28.4% against pre-pandemic levels, up from £3.66 in February 2019. Comparatively, draught bitter prices have increased 4.3% to £3.86 in February.

The Flash PMI also indicated a significant increase in input costs in the private sector, with inflation rates remaining high despite a slight easing from February’s six-month peak. Prices charged by service sector firms rose robustly, driven by the need to offset higher salary payments, while manufacturers experienced a modest rise in factory gate prices, often attributed to increased raw material prices.

Other news:

In March, despite a notable increase in business activity and new orders, private sector employment remained stagnant, according to the latest Flash PMI survey. Cautious hiring strategies were observed due to significant cost pressures, particularly in the service sector, alongside challenges in retaining staff and filling vacancies.

Sky News reports that PM Rishi Sunak is to guarantee the pensions triple lock ahead of the next General Election. This despite some apparent misgivings at no11 Downing Street. Such a move will favour older consumers.

Russia is reported to be considering imposing a 200% duty on wine imports from NATO countries.

COMPANY NEWS:

Shake Shack has announced that it has ‘appointed Rob Lynch to the role of Chief Executive Officer and board member, effective May 20, 2024.’ It reports ‘Mr. Lynch currently serves as President and CEO of Papa John’s International, Inc. and under his leadership, the Company has achieved record global system-wide sales.’ Randy Garutti, the current CEO, will remain in post until 20 May.

The flip side of the above in that Papa John’s International yesterday also announced that ‘Rob Lynch, President and Chief Executive Officer, will be departing Papa Johns to assume another CEO position’. It says its ‘Board has appointed Ravi Thanawala, Papa Johns current Chief Financial Officer, as Interim CEO effective today’. It adds that it is ‘conducting a comprehensive search process to identify a successor for the CEO role’.

HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Esken, which owns Southend airport, has called in administrators. AlixParners had been appointed after the company said that its restructuring plan ‘ceased to be commercially viable….’

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Separately, a 125-year lease has been agreed in what has been described as a “major step” towards to restarting flights from Doncaster Sheffield airport after the site closed 16 months ago. The next step will be to find an operator to managed the airport.

According to Kantar, 28% of UK adults planning a holiday this year, particularly younger individuals, expressed hesitancy about visiting southern Europe due to concerns about extreme weather conditions following last year’s heatwave….

According to VisitEngland’s Easter trip tracker survey, over 10 million people are uncertain about taking a domestic trip this Easter due to concerns about the cost of living and unpredictable weather….

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Gatwick Airport reports passenger numbers at 88% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, reaching 40.9 million passengers compared to 32.8 million in 2022….

OTHER LEISURE:

Reddit shares yesterday shot up by almost 50% on their first day of trading after listing on the US stock exchange.

French regulators have fined Google €250m for breaching an agreement on paying media companies for online content reproduction….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England yesterday as expected held the UK bank rate at 5.25%. It says prospects for cuts are ‘moving in the right direction’. Eight of the nine members of the Bank’s MPC voted to hold rates and one voted for a cut…

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S&P yesterday reported Flash PMI numbers for the UK saying that the measure for the economy as a whole fell slightly from 53.0 to 52.9. Any number above 50.0 implies growth. Services slipped from 53.8 to 53.4 but manufacturing rose from 47.5 to 49.9….

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The ONS yesterday reported on government borrowing saying it amounted to some £8.4bn on the month. Economists had been looking for around £6.0bn….

Sterling weaker at $1.2641 and €1.1659. Oil lower at $85.29. UK 10yr gilt yield down 3bps on the Bank’s decision to hold interest rates. World markets better yesterday but London set to open down around 4pts after a strong day on Thursday.

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