RBG, Pret, Constellation Brands, Carlsberg, labour, trading, GDP & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I heard that rumours are circulating that current PM Rishi Sunak, so far untested at the polls and our 5th leader since we somehow stumbled through the Looking Glass, could face a no-confidence vote if his party’s results in the Local Government elections due on 2 May are anything like as dreadful as currently being predicted.

And I wouldn’t bet against it because, when it comes to switching riders mid-race, the government has form.

And, after all, as a drowning man will clutch at pretty much anything, Mss Badenoch, Patel and Braverman must reckon they could garner support if they were to fling around enough crazy promises about tax cuts alongside higher pensions, reduced borrowings, more prisons and policemen and various other contradictory and inconsistent flimflam.

Even Ms Truss could be in with a shout.

And, as we’ve heard the lettuce is already offering a re-match, the prospect of a Truss victory is both horrific and entertaining in equal measure.

But then I woke up because no corner shop or jumble sale, let alone a G7 country would run itself in that way, would it?

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

Lumina Intelligence’s Eating and Drinking Out Panel reports the frequency of visits in the eating out market has increased for the first time in six months, up 1.5% YoY in the four weeks to 17 March 2024, driven by factors like decreased inflation and rising consumer confidence…

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Economy:

A survey by the British Chambers of Commerce has found the UK economy has not seen overall improvement in business conditions in Q1 2024, despite some positive indicators….

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Separately, the ONS today reports that ‘monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in February 2024, following growth of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% growth in our previous publication)….’

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Food cost & supply:

The UK will begin inspecting food imports from the EU starting April 30, with importers facing charges for the checks….

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Insurance group Allianz has suggested that post-Brexit border controls could add some £2bn to the cost of food & drink in the UK. It reports that dairy, meat and fish will be most heavily affected by the move,

Domestically, food has unfortunately been rotting in the fields. The Met Office reports a record-breaking amount of rainfall in the last 18 months, with 1,695.9mm of rain falling from October 2022 to March 2024….

COMPANY NEWS:

Revolution Bar Group’s shares recommenced trading on AIM yesterday after the company produced its H1 numbers and the share suspension was lifted. The shares closed the day at 1.85p, up from the c1.2p at which they were suspended and an 85% premium to the price at which the company has just placed shares.

In addition, RBG yesterday evening updated on its accelerated book build saying that some £10.5m had been raised at 1p per share subject to ‘the necessary resolutions being passed at the General Meeting, which is to be held on 2 May 2024.’ It says that ‘following Admission the issued share capital of the Company will be up to 1,496,340,975 Ordinary Shares…

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The Telegraph reports that Pret A Manger ‘has been forced to refund subscribers who have been unable to use its app since it introduced a crackdown on subscription sharing….’

Constellation Brands yesterday reported Q4 and full year numbers to 29 February saying that net sales rose by 9% to $8.2bn with operating income up by some 8% at $3.1bn. In Q4, revenue was up 11% and operating income was up by 12%…

Baltika Brewery, the former Russian arm of Carlsberg Group, is seeking RUB84.1 billion (US$950 million) in damages from the Danish brewer. The dispute arose after Carlsberg announced the sale of its Russian arm in June 2023 Court proceedings expected to commence soon, highlighting tensions between the two companies.

Punch Pubs & Co has acquired three Leicestershire pubs, including the Dog & Gun in Syston, the White Bear in Hinckley, and the Horse & Trumpet in Sileby, adding to its Leased & Tenanted estate of over 900 pubs and its total portfolio of 1,300 pubs.

Six by Nico is opening its fifteenth restaurant in Westgate Oxford on May 22nd, offering an ever-evolving six-course tasting menu priced at £50 per person, with an optional wine pairing for £30.

HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Weekly reports the number of Atol holders has increased for the second consecutive year after the March renewals, reflecting the robust state of the package travel sector. With a total of 1,630 licence holders, up from 1,619 last year, and a rise in licensed passenger numbers among the largest Atol holders, the industry appears healthy.

Guesty, a platform for managing accommodations on platforms like Airbnb and Vrbo, has secured $130m in a Series F round led by KKR, valuing the company at around $900m post-money….

Heathrow Airport reported a second consecutive month of record passenger traffic, with 6.7 million passengers passing through in March, up 8% YoY….

London Stansted Airport had a record-breaking March, with over 2.18 million passengers, leading to its busiest ever 12-month period. The airport saw a significant increase in passenger numbers, reaching 28.5 million over the year, with strong operational performance and a robust European route network contributing to its success.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For GDP numbers see Pubs & Restaurants above.

Megan Green, a member of the Bank of England’s MPC, has suggested that good news on wage growth and services’ output (and prices), may mean that interest rate cuts could have to be postponed….

The Telegraph reports that management consultancy firm McKinsey ‘is planning to lay off hundreds of staff as the consulting giant grapples with weaker demand for its services.’ Restructuring companies, meanwhile, are very busy.

The European Central Bank held interest rates at their all-time highs yesterday. The Bank signalled that it was considering a cut at its next meeting in June. Both actions (or inactions) were in line with expectations. Eurozone inflation is now only marginally above the ECB’s 2 per cent target rate.

Head of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva has urged the world’s major central banks not to cut interest rates too early. She says that inflation was ‘not fully defeated…’

Sterling mixed at $1.2538 and €1.1702. Oil down at $90.24. UK 10 year gilt yield sharply higher (up 9 bps) at 4.23%. World markets mixed yesterday and London set to open around 32 points higher as at 6.30am.

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