Langton Capital – 2024-04-17 – JET, TIME, Wasabi, LVMH, TGI, Saga, Safestay, Entain, inflation & other:
JET, TIME, Wasabi, LVMH, TGI, Saga, Safestay, Entain, inflation & other:
A DAY IN THE LIFE: The swans on the pond near to us have knocked out eight signets, a step up from the five they produced last year. And I say eight but, as they’re all just a blur of dark & light grey bobbles on the water at the moment, shepherded by two large, very protective and rather aggressive parents that won’t let you get near, I’m only sure for certain that there are ‘some’ and that, however many there are, they definitely appear to float. Good luck to them, of course but, last year, the parents seemed to decide that five was too many and chased one off in the middle of the night when it presumably got stroppy. They then cared, diligently, for the remainder until something flipped in their pea-sized brains and they flew off with the youngsters and came back without them. I had the image of the swans doing the bird-equivalent of driving to Newcastle, or somewhere, asking the kids to pop in the chip shop to buy a fish supper and then driving off without them. Now that’s a thought. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN sent separately MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE – EBITDA Herewith an article sent to clients in March. Comment on cash flows perhaps later. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. JUST EAT TAKEAWAY – Q1 UPDATE Just Eat Takeaway has this morning updated on Q1 trading to end-March and our comments thereon update are set out below: The numbers: JET reports Q1 Gross Transaction Value down by 2% at €6.5bn. Orders are down by 6% at 214.2m. The company reports that ‘UK and Ireland accelerated GTV growth to 11% (7% constant currency) in Q1 2024.’ This was more than outweighed by a 15% drop in Southern Europe & ANZ. The company announces ‘continued momentum in GTV growth in Northern Europe’. It says it saw ‘constant currency GTV growth excluding North America of 3% in Q1 2024, within the 2024 guidance range of 2% to 6% year-on-year.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Inflation: The ONS has this morning reported that UK CPI fell to 3.2% in the year to March, down from 3.4% in February. This is the lowest level for two years. The ONS reports that ‘on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.6% in March 2024, compared with a rise of 0.8% in March 2023….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Cost of living issues: The Daily Mail points out that average petrol prices have risen by nearly 8p per litre so far this year. It says that a litre of unleaded ‘looks set to rise above £1.50 on average for the first time in five months…’ The outlook for interest rates: Yesterday’s labour market stats painted a mixed picture. Wage growth slowed a little (but by less than expected) and unemployment rose. Because inflation continued its decline, rises in real wages, however, grew. Overall, the market read the news as suggesting that interest rate cuts may come slightly later than previously thought… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Other news: The Society of Independent Brewers and Associates has agreed a partnership with Imbibe Live for their July 2024 show, taking place at London’s Olympia Exhibition Centre. SIBA says it is ‘investing in the new Indie Beer Bar to allow member breweries of all sizes the opportunity to showcase their products at the UK’s premier drinks industry trade show’. The Project Café UK 2024 report by World Coffee Portal finds that despite robust sales growth in the branded coffee shop market, operators are exercising caution due to ongoing cost-of-living concerns…. COMPANY NEWS: Time Out has announced that it has ‘entered into a management agreement with Corvin Food Market Kft to open a new Time Out Market in Budapest with an expected opening date in 2025.’ The company says ‘this agreement increases the number of sites in development to nine which are set to open between 2024 and 2027, in addition to the seven Markets already open and a pipeline of further locations in advanced negotiation….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Just Drinks reports that UK-based non-alcoholic beer producer Fungtn has closed down its business. The company raised funds via crowdfunding in 2022. Wasabi Co Ltd saw revenue significantly increase by 55.5% YoY to £103.1m for the 53 week period ended 31 December 2022. Despite this increase, the company still generated an operating loss of £3.6m, down from a loss of £5.8m the year prior with EBITDA slipping into a loss of £186k from a profit of £530k…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Spirits and luxury goods company LVMH yesterday evening reported on Q1 trading saying that revenues slipped by 2% to €20.7bn. Wines & spirits revenues were some 16% down with the shortfall partly made up by strong sales in perfumes and in ‘selective retailing’. LVMH reports ‘the Wines & Spirits business group saw a revenue decline (-12% organic) in the first quarter of 2024. Champagne was down, reflecting the normalization of post-Covid demand….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Per MCA, premium bakery chain Gail’s currently has no immediate plans to venture into the drive-thru market but remains open to the possibility in the future…. TGI Friday’s merger. Viewed from the US, it’s pointed out that the reverse takeover will see current TGI Fridays CEO Weldon Spangler and CFO Nik Rupp leading the combined group…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Former D&D director Des Gunewardena will combine two different brands when he launches his new concept at The Royal Exchange in The City of London this summer. Grocery app Getir ‘is weighing a string of asset sales as part of crunch restructuring talks’ reports Sky News. Sky says the company ‘is examining possible disposals including FreshDirect, a US-based online grocer it only acquired late last year….’ HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Saga has this morning reported full year numbers to end-January saying that underlying revenue rose by 13% to £732,7m with an underlying PBT of £45.3m (2023: £21.5m). The company is reporting a headline loss of £129m (2023: loss £273m)…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Safestay has announced a new management contract in Spain. The company says it ‘has signed its first management contract to run the resort-based 120 bed Calpe Seafront Hostel on Spain’s Costa Blanca on behalf of a property investment company….’ Border Force officers are to strike at Heathrow Airport for four days later this month. Birmingham Airport was yesterday closed temporarily due to a ‘security incident on an aircraft’. The airport was able to say that the ‘aircraft landed safely and all passengers and crew have disembarked.’ The BBC reports that, perhaps unsurprisingly, the terrible spring weather has been bad for the UK domestic holiday market. Spain’s tourism economy is being significantly boosted by British holidaymakers, spending €2.2bn in the first two months of 2024, marking a 31.57% increase YoY. Their average trip duration increased by 7% to 8.2 days, while expenditure per trip rose by over 13% to €1,260, making them the highest spending demographic in Spain. Marriott International aims to expand its European portfolio with nearly 100 properties and over 12,000 rooms by 2026… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. CoStar reports that it believes the Paris Olympics 2024 has not seen major new hotel supply going on ahead of the event. EasyJet has maintained its suspension of flights to and from Tel Aviv this week due to safety concerns following Iran’s recent drone and missile attack on Israel. The decision reflects ongoing worries about escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Israel considering its response. OTHER LEISURE: Entain has updated on Q1 trading saying that net gaming revenue for the group rose by 6% on a constant currency basis – but fell by 3% on a pro-forma basis. The company maintains ‘we continue to make good progress improving the operational performance of the business to drive organic revenue growth.’ It says that ‘group Q1 performance in line with our expectations’ and adds that UK & Ireland NGR was down by 7%, (Online -9%cc2, Retail -6%) ‘as we continue to experience the effects of our regulatory implementation…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. FINANCE & MARKETS: Inflation – see Pubs & Restaurants above. Matthew Percival, CBI Future of Work & Skills Director, remarked on yesterday’s ONS jobs market data, noting a two-speed trend in the UK labour market. While unemployment is on the rise and inactivity persists, there is also a notable increase in unfilled job vacancies, leading to faster wage growth. Percival emphasised the need to enhance access to training, especially by reforming the ineffective apprenticeship levy. Recruitment firm Hays reported a 17% decrease in total fees YoY, mirroring a similar bleak assessment by fellow recruiter PageGroup…. The buy-to-let market has been significantly impacted by higher interest rates, with new lending decreasing by 55.4% YoY in Q4 2023 as average interest rates rose to 5.7%. The IMF has forecast that the UK will grow in GDP terms by just 0.5% this year. That is likely to be at or near zero in terms of GDP per capita…. The IMF has gone on to suggest that tensions in the Middle East could delay interest rate cuts worldwide. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is once again hinting at tax cuts ahead of the next General Election. This would, presumably, only be possible if the election were delayed to the very end of the year. Sterling mixed at $1.2427 and €1.1694. Oil lower at $89.55. UK 10yr gilt yield up 6bps at 4.30%. World markets down yesterday & London set to open up around 26 points as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.
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