ROO Q1, RNK Q3, LGRS, Wagamama, March Tracker, delivery & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Despite the damp, the fruit trees in the garden are in bloom and, for that at least, the bullfinches seem to be grateful.

Because the indigenous ones have told all their mates and they’re having a party at our house.

Where they’re devouring blossom like there’s no tomorrow and, as they’re pretty hench birds, I feel they’re about the size and shape of a shoebox, that’s having a major impact on the bits and bobs hanging from the trees.

Slight exaggeration there, admittedly, but a diary entry is needed because, when I’m bemoaning the lack of fruit later in the year, it’s likely that these birds, endearing and obnoxious in equal measure, are behind the shortfall.

Incidentally, and I know relatively little about birds, they have the saddest song. Like a rusty wheelbarrow being pushed across a barren moor. At midnight. And in the rain. On to the news:

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MARCH HOSPITALITY SALES TRACKER:

Summary: CGA and RSM have produced their Hospitality Business Tracker for March – which featured five weekends and an early Easter – showing that LfL sales across Britain’s leading hospitality groups rose by 5.2% versus March last year. The weather was poor but Easter will have been a big plus. It will not be possible to draw conclusions until we have seen April numbers (and combined the two to compare them with last year). The 5.2% comes after 1.4% in February and 0.1% in Jan.

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DELIVEROO – Q1 TRADING UPDATE:

Deliveroo has this morning updated on trading for the first three months of 2024 and our comments are set out below:

Headline numbers: Deliveroo reports GTV up 6% year on year in constant currency terms. Revenue growth was up 2% in constant currency terms. It says that orders ‘returned to growth with a 2% increase YoY, while GTV per order was up 4% in constant currency.’ The company adds that in ‘UKI, GTV growth was 6% YoY (7% in Q4 2023), in the context of a more stable but still uncertain consumer environment; orders were flat, in-line with overall market growth.’

The company says in ‘International, GTV growth accelerated to 6% YoY in constant currency (1% in Q4 2023), with orders up 4%; improvement in GTV growth rate was driven by France, UAE and Hong Kong, with Italy remaining strong.’ ROO adds that ‘revenue take rate stable sequentially with continued investment into consumer…

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Q1 trading:

The Oxford Partnership’s latest On Trade Tracker has shown that ‘Easter definitely drove some cheer for the UK hospitality industry, finishing the first quarter of the year on a positive note.’ The Partnership says that ‘in the four-week period to 31st March, volumes grew +2.4% vs. the same period last year, as consumers celebrated an earlier Easter than 2023 as well as the Six Nations, and a multitude of big Football fixtures. Over the Easter break, Suburban outlets alone saw sales grow by +7.2% in Week 14….’

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Delivery:

Foodservice analyst Peter Backman reveals that the eight largest delivery companies globally collectively incurred a net loss of -$7.5bn in 2023. Over the past decade, these companies have accumulated total losses of -$100bn to -$110bn, including losses from entities with limited financial data and those that no longer exist….

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Costs:

The MA reports Night-Time Industries Association (NTIA) CEO Michael Kill states operating costs continue to ‘suffocate’ hospitality firms. Mr Kill urged the government for decisive fiscal action such as a VAT cut to support recovery….

Inflation:

See also Finance & Markets below. UKH CEO Kate Nicholls says ‘inflation continuing to fall is very positive for the economy.’ She calls for ‘an easing of interest rates, which will reduce costs for businesses and incentivise investment in growth’ and says ‘this is particularly important for parts of the economy where prices are more stubborn, like hospitality….’

Demographics:

Grey pound. Figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show nearly 1 million people over 66 in the UK are living in deprivation…

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Younger consumers. As a part of its inflation calcs yesterday, the ONS reported that rental costs rose by 9.2% in the year to March (up from 9.0% in the year to February). This compares to a CPI of 3.2%. Mortgage costs took their big step up over a year ago, suggesting little change on that measure…

Brewery overcapacity:

Data from Price Bailey shows the total number of craft brewery business failures increased from 25 in 2022 to 52 in 2023, attributed to factors like rising interest rates and decreased consumer demand….

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Other news:

The US National Brewers’ Association has reported that the US craft-beer industry shrank in 2023 despite hitting a record number of operating breweries. This will not be good for the profitability of individual breweries. The BA says that production was down 1% in 2023 over 2022.

COMPANY NEWS:

Loungers has updated on its rollout programme saying that it has opened one new unit every 10 days this year so far. The company says it now has 257 sites and adds ‘with each new Lounge site nearly £1m is invested into the local high street and an average of 30 new jobs are created. Chairman Alex Reilley says ‘Loungers continues to go from strength to strength with a fantastic pipeline ahead.’ He concludes ‘we still firmly believe that there is scope for over 600 Lounges, and are more excited than ever about the future of this business.’

Revolution Bar Group’s proposed restructuring plan involves exiting leases of loss-making sites, implementing rent reductions, and focusing on improving profitability. It aims to return the company to profitability by enhancing EBITDA, reducing debt, and restarting the refurbishment program, with expectations of a £3.8m improvement in adjusted EBITDA in FY25….

Wagamama Limited, now wholly-owned by The Restaurant Group, has reported somewhat dated numbers to Companies House. It says revenue of £420m in the year ended 1 January 2023, up from £346m in FY21. Operating profit fell to £21m from £37m as cost pressures increased, marking a decline in operating profit margin from 14.6% to 11.2%. Adjusted EBITDA fell to £59m from £68m and the number of restaurants operated increased by 11 to 156…..

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DP Poland will hold a general meeting later today at which shareholders will vote on its proposed £20.5m share placing.

HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

TravelSupermarket has reported a ‘stabilisation’ in family holiday prices. It said prices have increased by 1.57% on average, well below the CPI.

The Cruise Lines International Association has reported that 2023 was a ‘new landmark year’ in the UK. The latest State of the Cruise Industry report reveals that some 2.3m cruise holidays were taken by holidaymakers from the UK and Ireland (up from 1.7m in 2022 and above the pre-Covid 2019 figure of 1.9m….

Travel Weekly reports tour operators and travel agents have received a small number of inquiries from worried clients following heightened tensions in the Middle East….

East Midlands Railway is investing £27.6m to upgrade trains connecting London with Luton Airport. The refurbishment includes new seating, expanded luggage racks, charging points, and passenger information systems.

Dubai Airport is advising passengers against travelling to the hub due to severe flooding caused by an intense storm, prompting the airport’s closure. Images and videos circulating on social media depict the airfield submerged under several inches of water, leading to delays and diversions of flights.

Intercontinental Hotels is to effectively double its presence in Germany after signing a deal with private hotel operator NOVUM Hospitality, which has 108 properties. The deal will take IHG’s exposure in Europe’s largest economy to over 200 properties in 100 cities.

Global Infrastructure Partners is to sell its 50.01% in Edinburgh Airport to French group VINCI Airports.

OTHER LEISURE:

Rank has updated on Q3 trading saying that total Net Gaming Revenue was up 6% in Q3 this year compared to last at £182.3m….

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Donald Trump’s social media venture, Truth Social, owned by Trump Media & Technology Group, faces continued share price decline, with shares falling 14% following its stock market debut last month, despite an expansion plan to include livestreaming and diverse content offerings.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The CBI yesterday responded to the ONS’s CPI release saying ‘while March’s fall in inflation was smaller than expected, it’s still likely to move closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target in the next few months….’

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Fed Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, has similarly cautioned that stickier than anticipated inflation could lead to some delay to interest rate cuts.

Sterling weaker at $1.2466 and €1.1672. Oil down at $87.49. UK 10yr gilt yield down 2 bps at 4.28%. World markets broadly better yesterday and London set to open up around 26 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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