NIC changes, sport, Urban Pubs, Nero, FEVR, Wagamama & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I’m not a good presenter but, rather than take heart when others are worse, I tend to really feel for them.

I mean I was at a presentation some time ago that started badly and quickly became terrible.

It was disjointed to the point of not making much sense and my heart went out to them but, as the person in question seemed to be aiming for a vocal mix of Michael McIntyre. Brian Blessed and, well, maybe Shirley Bassey whilst channelling Worzel Gummidge, I think my sympathy might have been misplaced.

Because, if there’s one thing worse than being bad, it’s being confident, bold, loud and bad.

Chuck in long-winded and it’s hard to top it but, here, it’s probably worth repeating that, given the subject matter, I don’t think many people could have done much better.

Anyway, on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Upcoming NIC hikes:

Sacha Lord, outgoing Night Time Economy Advisor to Greater Manchester Council, has written to chancellor Rachel Reeves saying that her tax changes threaten the well-being of the sector. Mr Lord says ‘our sector drives growth, creates jobs and fuels the economy. Yet, the upcoming April tax changes will push businesses to the brink.’ He says that thousands of businesses ‘are at risk of shutting their doors forever as a result of this current growth agenda which is too sweeping, too swift and too broad….’

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Grocery costs:

Kantar has reported that grocery inflation in January fell for the first time in six months, dropping to 3.3 per cent in the year to January, down from 3.7 per cent in December. Kantar says ‘supermarkets were dishing out the discounts this New Year, and consumers responded.’

Sport – Six Nations:

The British Beer and Pub Association says new figures have revealed that almost 12m extra pints are expected to be sold throughout the [Six Nations] tournament. CEO Emma McClarkin says ‘rugby fans know that the best place to watch live sport, if you can’t be in the stadium itself, is down the pub…’

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Late Night Market:

London mayor Sadiq Khan is to launch an independent new Nightlife Taskforce to help support London’s life at night. The Taskforce ‘brings together a wide range of experts from the frontline of the capital’s nightlife to examine and address the issues facing the industries.’ The Mayor says ‘over six months the taskforce will assess the challenges and opportunities facing London’s ever-evolving nightlife to provide recommendations on how to ensure the capital’s nighttime economy can thrive…’

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Disposable incomes:

A number of councils (home to millions of ratepayers) have been given dispensation to raise council tax bills by between 5% and 10%. Windsor and Maidenhead Council, for example, which had lobbied for a 25% rise, is to raise council tax by 9%. This will clearly eat into disposable incomes in certain areas.

COMPANY NEWS:

The Nero Group has announced ‘strong trading for the first half of its financial year (June 2024-November 2024), including record sales and sales growth of 13.6% above the same period last year….’

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Wagamama, The Restaurant Group’s main operating brand, has refinanced an element of its debt issuing £330m in senior notes and announcing a £55m revolving credit facility. The debt will carry interest at the rate of 8.5% and is due to expire in 2030….

Fevertree Drinks plc has today announced the completion of the issuance of equity to Molson Coors Beverage Company following the announcement of the strategic partnership between Fever-Tree and Molson Coors on 30 January 2025.

Nightcap has purchased Brighton venue i360 out of administration. Nightcap reports ‘the decision allows both the continued operation of this important Brighton attraction which brings hundreds of thousands of visitors to the seafront every year as well as representing an exciting step forward for Nightcap….’

Incipio Group is reported to have achieved LFL sales growth of 21% in 2024. Posting on LinkedIn, CEO Ed Devenport says the group is looking forward to an ‘an exciting 2025’.

Greene King has reported that sales of draught alcohol-free drinks rose by 238% in January. The company says it has extended its range and adds ‘this January we have seen the continuing demand for great quality low and no drinks. The pub is where people want to meet up with friends, family and work colleagues, whatever the occasion and time of day….’

Punch Pubs & Co has purchased The Bull pub in Ilchester, Somerset. The traditional wet-led pub will sit within Punch’s Leased and Tenanted estate.

Chipotle in the Us has announced Q4 & FY numbers saying that LFL sales were up by 5.4% in the quarter with transaction numbers up 4.0%. For the FY, LFL sales were up 7.4% with 5.3% transaction growth. Q4 sales increased 13.1% to $2.8 billion. The operating margin was 14.6%, an increase from 14.4%…

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PepsiCo yesterday reported Q4 numbers below estimates. The shares fell by around 4% on the news. Pepsi reported group revenue at $27.78 billion for Q4 with net revenue growth of minus 0.2%. Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta referred to ‘subdued category performance trends in North America’.

Pub operator Brakspear has taken the top spot in The Licensee Index, an annual national survey of pub tenants and lessees at 15 pub operators conducted by industry research specialists KAM.

Bar Restaurant operator Urban Pubs & Bars London Ltd has reported full year numbers to 28 April 2024 to Companies House. The company reports that ‘the period under review has been a period of growth for the Urban Pubs and Bars business.’ It says ‘significant capital investment has been made during the year to acquire and refurbish four new sites purchased in the financial year.’ Headline numbers: Urban Pubs & Bars reports sales up 16% at £60.5m (2023: £52.2m….

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The Noble Restaurant Group, formerly ATFC Ltd, which owns the Angus Steakhouse chain of restaurants amongst others, has reported numbers for the 18 month period to end-April 2024 to Companies’ House. The numbers are not directly comparable to the 12 month figures to end-October 2022. Noble Restaurants says the revenue came in at £54.2m (12 month 2022: £32.4m). The GP% in the period to April 2024 (which includes two Christmases) was 31.3% compared to 29.6% in the comparable, 12 month, period…

Sam Smith’s pub Ye Olde Swiss Cottage is reported set to shut. Drinks Business reports CAMRA as saying ‘we are increasingly concerned by how the Samuel Smith’s pub estate is being run….’

Drinks Business reports that Craft beer company By the Horns has entered liquidation.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

UKH Cymru is calling on the Welsh Government to exclude children from its planned visitor levy. David Chapman, Executive Director of UKH Cymru, says ‘families across the UK have great memories of holidaying in Wales – the stunning scenery, walks in the hills and ice cream on the beach. The visitor levy alone potentially pushes Wales down the pecking order of likely holiday destinations, and the decision to tax children is yet another reason for families to choose to go elsewhere….’

Whitbread’s Premier Inn has acquired the freehold of 35 Red Lion Square, WC1 for conversion into a hub by Premier Inn hotel. The company says ‘the prime property, which is in a prominent location on the junction of Theobalds Road, Drake Street and Red Lion Square, was purchased from the Royal College of Anaesthetists for an undisclosed sum.’ Whitbread ‘sees the potential for a hub by Premier Inn hotel of around 150-bedrooms at the highly accessible location as part of its London growth plan.’

Stansted airport would like to add an additional 21 million passengers by 2045. The airport says the use of larger aircraft will mean no increase in the number of flights. It says ‘the airport’s ability to grow to serve up to 51 million passengers a year is a result of airlines planning to use larger models of modern, efficient aircraft than previously forecast, enabling more people to fly on each plane and meeting additional passenger demand with flight limits remaining unchanged.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Health spa chain Champneys has reported numbers for the year to end-April 2024 to Companies’ House saying that revenue rose by 3% to £58.2m. The company reports an operating loss of £294k (2023: operating profit of £1.6m. The company’s interest bill has risen and the loss before tax is £8.5m against a loss of £5.0m in the prior year…

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Tesla’s sales in France are reported to have dropped from 3,118 in January last year to just 1,141 in the same month this year.

Alphabet yesterday reported Q4 numbers that undershot expectations. Shares fell by over 6% on the news. Alphabet says ‘the fourth quarter was a strong quarter driven by our leadership in AI and momentum across the business. We are building, testing, and launching products and models faster than ever, and making significant progress in compute and driving efficiencies.’

Mattel has cautioned that import duties on goods from China may oblige it to raise prices. The company told the FT that less than 40 per cent of Mattel’s production was in China while Mexico accounted for less than 10 per cent.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

CBI CEO Rain Newton-Smith yesterday warned ‘there may be tension among the established big trading blocs… and pressure to fall in behind one or more. But we must not.’

The Telegraph reports that the OBR is set to cut its estimates for UK growth in a move that will ‘pile pressure on Rachel Reeves to cut spending or raise taxes within weeks.’

City AM reports that ‘a majority of Brits now have little confidence in Rachel Reeves’ plan to generate economic growth despite a renewed push from the Chancellor to kickstart Britain’s ailing economy.’

Sterling mixed at $1.2464 and €1.2021. Oil up at $76.13. UK 10 year gilt yield up 4 basis points at 4.53%. World markets mixed yesterday & London set to open down around 28 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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