Trading, sport, Valentine’s Day, incomes, CCH, Heineken, ROO & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Been in London this week for the first time in a while and noticed that, no matter how much the locals here assure me that it’s the case, I’m not the only one who’s got a daft accent.

However, whilst I’m used to people not understanding me when I say something like ‘should I Claire’s the door’, it’s a little less common for me not to be able to comprehend the local patois.

Still, yesterday, a gentleman asked me if I ‘liked Payoo Ayoo?

Actually, it was loiked rather than liked but I got that bit and thought Payoo Ayoo must be a town near Machu Picchu.

The guy thought I’d been on holiday but no, it turned out the chap in question was trying to give out samples of 0.5% Adnam’s Ghost Ship, which I vaguely knew was a pale ale.

Hence, mystery solved and, 0.5% or 4.5%, it’s still beer so there was only ever going to be one answer to that question.

Only time to commiserate with Hull City and move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading (and sport):

The Oxford Partnership comments on ongoing trading during the Six Nations rugby tournament saying that stout sales have soared. It says that the rugby – and FA Cup football matches – ‘boosted footfall in venues, despite a decline in volume sales compared to 2024.’ Sales, in brief, are down y-o-y but up when compared to sales in the preceding week…

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Small leisure company watch:

Some big share price movements this week prompted a quick look with the recent past (and perhaps the outlook) not looking too good for a number of stocks. We will likely extend the research for future publication. Re the below, some companies have had very dilutive share placings so comparing share prices over time could be distorted…

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More on trading:

Hospitality Data Insights has reported that Storm Éowyn hit hospitality sales in January with ‘delivery the only sector to achieve growth’ in the month. HDI reports that UK Hospitality Sales in the first 4 weeks of 2025 were down 0.3% year-on-year, with the week ending 28 January significantly impacted by Storm Éowyn on Friday 24th and Saturday 25th. Delivery, pity the poor bicycle rider, held up better…

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Valentine’s Day.

Tomorrow, if you had forgotten. Design My Night reports that ‘Gen Z [are the] most likely to dine out on Valentine’s Day.’ it says they may split the bill but they are ‘proving the most romantic of all age groups.’ Of those aged 18 to 28, some 58% are reported to be planning to go out compared with just 39% of millennials (aged 29-44), a third (33%) of Gen X (aged 45 to 60) and 27% of boomers (aged 61 to 70).

Disposable income:

Floating rate and even fixed rate mortgages may be set to become cheaper. The Guardian reports that ‘the first sub-4% mortgages for months are going on sale, handing a much-needed boost to first-time buyers and those worried about refinancing their home loan….’

Prime ministerial support:

The trade has suggested that PM Sir Keir Starmer’s announcement that he visits his local pub a couple of times every six months is not going to move the dial for the industry. Additionally, actions speak louder than words, and there has been relatively little on that front….

Other news:

UKH has welcomed changes to apprenticeship rules saying ‘introducing more flexibility into apprenticeships is something UK Hospitality has long been calling for.’ CEO Kate Nicholls says ‘giving businesses more control over the apprenticeship requirements, so they are relevant to the role, is critical and will remove a significant barrier for both the employer and the apprentice.’

China has raised its import tariffs on vermouth and “other wine in small containers” from 14% to 30%.

COMPANY NEWS:

Coca Cola HBC has reported full year numbers to end-December saying that it generated organic volume growth of 2.8% ‘with all our strategic priority categories driving growth’. The company says that reported revenues were up by 5.6% ‘with strong organic growth partly offset by FX headwinds in the Emerging segment.’ Sales came in at €10.54bn against €10.18bn last year. Operating profit was €1.185bn against €954m and basic EPS rose by 30.2%. CEO Zoran Bogdanovic says ‘2024 demonstrated that we can achieve a consistently strong financial performance even in a range of market conditions…..’

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Shares in Heineken rose by around 14% yesterday on the back of Q4 figures showing stable trading and the announcement of a share buyback.

Sky reports that Eric French, COO at Deliveroo, is to leave the company later this year. Sky reported yesterday that the company was succession planning ahead of founder Will Shu’s potential retirement later this year. Sky quotes ‘sources’ as saying that Mr French’s plan to leave Deliveroo was unconnected to ongoing discussions in the company’s boardroom about succession planning for Mr Shu.

Coca Cola-owend Costa Coffee has added tea to its drinks offer across 7,000 of its self-serve Costa Express machines. This follows a ten-unit trial in April 2024.

Restaurant Brands International yesterday reported Q4 and full year numbers saying that Q4 global system-wide sales were up by 5.6% for the fourth quarter and by 5.4% for 2024 as a whole. The company says global comparable sales were up 2.5% in Q4. It says that Tim Horton Canada sales were up by 2.5%…

Coca-Cola reported full year numbers on Tuesday saying that higher prices led to an increase in overall revenue. volumes were up 2% in Q4 having been down 1% in Q3. The company now ‘forecasts annual sales growth at [the] upper end of long-term target[s].

Pernod Ricard has bought the remaining shares of South African gin distiller Inverroche that it did not already own for an undisclosed sum.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

TUI AG shares opened weak yesterday as markets continued to digest its Q1 numbers. However, the shares rallied somewhat later in the day. The company says the group is being cautious and implies that the slowdown in sales has protected margins…

Staycity Group has reported that it has secured a £77m loan from OakNorth bank in order to fund further growth. The company operates two aparthotel brands, Staycity Aparthotels and the lifestyle brand Wilde….

Kuoni parent company Dertour has acquired the majority of the Hotelplan Group, which was put up for sale by its parent Migros last year. Dertour says ‘we are delighted to take over the Hotelplan Group with its strong collection of travel brands and lead them to further growth in our tourism network, with clear advantages for employees, guests and partners…’

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Holiday Park Action Group, which represents some 2,000 claimants who claim to have lost money on mis-sold static caravans and unfair pitch fees, has suggested that ‘nobody controls this industry. It’s like the wild west, they’re free to do what they like, how they like…’

ACI Europe has reported that passenger volumes across Europe’s airports has now exceeded pre-Covid 2019 numbers. Passenger volumes rose by 7.4% in 2024. Nonetheless, around half of Europe’s airports by number are still running below 2019 levels….

OTHER LEISURE:

The BBC reports that a front-of-shirt sponsor of Everton football club is giving up its gambling license in Great Britain after an investigation into an ad featuring ‘adult’ actress Bonnie Blue….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS has reported that the UK economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in Q3 last year. External economists had been looking for a decline of around 0.1%. The CBI says ‘the rebound in activity in December is encouraging….’

CBI Chair Rupert Soames has called for decisive policy action to spur economic growth. Mr Soames says ‘the UK is at a pivotal moment for its economy, with decisions made in the next five years set to shape the nation’s trajectory for the next three decades.’ He says ‘business leaders and policymakers must work together and act decisively to drive sustainable economic growth, productivity, and investment….’

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The NIESR expects the UK economy to grow by 1.5% this year. It maintains that US tariffs could threaten this number.

City AM reports that the OBR, which has delivered its not-yet-public report to the government, has cut its growth forecasts. It says growth estimates will be reduced and that the chancellor may be faced with the choice of cutting spending or raising taxes further.

The rate of CPI in the US rose unexpectedly in January, moving from 2.9% in December to 3.0% in January. Rising egg prices on the back of an outbreak of avian flu were partly to blame. The markets had been expecting an unchanged mark at 2.9%.

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Sterling mixed at $1.2489 and €1.1973. Oil lower on potential Ukraine peace talks at $74.57. UK 10 year gilt yield up 4 basis points at 4.54%. World markets mostly better yesterday & London set to open around 11 points better as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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