The Economy, WFH, visitor levies, tax & NIC, Time Out & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I was wondering the other day whilst attending to my brunch, as to whether jars of Marmite ever actually run out?

Or is it always possible to get a bit more out of them?

It’s just that there reaches a point where the butter, toast crumbs, jam and, sad to say, what may well be the odd dog hair makes what’s left so repellent that you have to change it.

Because it’s maybe the latter. Indeed, to the best of my knowledge, I’ve never recycled an empty jar for the very reason that they’ve never been empty and, provided it’s well more than three quarters used up, having something that looks vaguely edible is probably worth paying up for.

Bit pushed but just got time to congratulate the resurgent Hull City on not losing over the weekend and, though not actually putting the ball in the net themselves, in managing to take three points from high-flying Sunderland at the Stadium of Light.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Taxes & costs:

A joint survey by The British Beer and Pub Association, the British Institute of Innkeeping, and UK Hospitality has found that as many as two thirds of hospitality businesses believe they will be forced to cut their employment levels as a result of rising costs. The trade bodies are are again urging the government to delay changes to the employers’ national insurance threshold so that the sector can continue to grow….

The economy:

STR released flash UK PMI (purchasing managers’ index) Composite Output numbers for February on Friday saying that the number had fallen to 50.5 from 50.6 in January. Any number above 50.0 implies expansion. The services PMI was 51.1 against 50.8 in January but manufacturing slumped further to 47.4 from 49.2 in January…

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Late night market:

Further research from Obsurvant & the NTIA has pointed out that ‘31% of women rely on taxis as their main night-time transport (vs. 19% of men), leading to higher costs for female nightlife-goers.’ There are safety issues at play as well…

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Other news:

Visitor levies. UKH has come out against the idea of a Greater Manchester tourist tax saying it will harm visitor numbers and spend in the city. CEO Kate Nicholls says ‘it’s really disappointing that the Mayor of Greater Manchester doesn’t seem to appreciate the damage a mandatory tourist tax would have on the city as a destination, which modelling shows would reduce visitor numbers and spending….’

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WFH. Startups.co.uk says that some younger worker are keener to get back to the office than are some of their older peers. UNiDAYS says that some 65% of students over the age of 16 believe a physical office is important for their first job….

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The FT reports that some London restaurants are trying to deter “reservation-squatting”, booking bots and social-media influencers by putting in place minimum spends and the need for deposits to be paid.

CGA has commented on ‘the big boosts of five key event days in Britain’s On Premise.’ It refers to Valentine’s Day, Mothers’ Day, St Patrick’s Day, Fathers’ Day and Halloween saying that, when normalised for sporting events that sometimes coincide, the days have led to an uplift in spend per venue of between £120 and £150…

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Tax changes: John Eckbert, CEO of Five Guys UK and Europe, has said that NIC increases will slow his growth plans…

SIBA NI Chair William Mayne says of the publication of the Independent Review of the Liquor Licensing System in Northern Ireland that ‘this detailed review is clear that reform of the licensing system is well overdue and the current surrender principle is failing to protect Northern Ireland’s pubs. Instead it acts as a barrier to innovation and diversity and reduces consumer choice.’ He says ‘we hope that the Minister quickly spells out a path to reform which will enable small breweries to reach their potential and meet consumer choice.’

COMPANY NEWS:

Time Out Group plc on Friday reported numbers for the six months ended 31 December 2024 saying that ‘markets continued growth with strong performance and accelerating openings.’ The company said it was ‘reiterating full year EBITDA expectations.’ Time Out reports revenue of £50.9m (H1 FY24: £52.5m) a decrease of 3%, it says that markets revenue was up 12%. Time Out adds that adjusted EBITDA was £4.8m (H1 FY24: £6.0m) with markets up 12% and media swinging into an EBITDA loss…

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Chinese coffee company Luckin Coffee has said that it is still committed to its low-cost drinks strategy despite rising costs hitting margins. The company says ‘we don’t have plans to increase prices and our RMB 9.9 coffee promotion will consistently be available to our customers.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Weekly reports that the trade has reported a strong February so far, but noted price levels are continuing to deter segments of the market. Jet2 mentioned last weekends that bookings were coming somewhat later.

Direct train journeys are reported set to be introduced from London St Pancras to Germany, Switzerland and France are set to be introduced in the near future.

A decision on the £2.2 billion plan to bring Gatwick’s second runway into regular use should be made by the government this week.

OTHER LEISURE:

Apple is to remove its highest level data security tool from customers in the UK.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS on Friday reported the UK’s highest January budget surplus on record. Nonetheless, it was lower than expected and concerns have been raised that taxes may have to increase further.

Sterling mixed at $1.2669 and €1.2055. Oil lower at $74.37. UK 10 year gilt yield 3 basis points lower at 4.58%. World markets mixed on Friday & London set to open around one point lower as at 6.30am.

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