Shepherd Neame, Cornish Bakery, insolvencies, trading, incomes & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I wouldn’t say I’ve got a massive downer on electric bikes.

But what I do harbour negative emotions towards are things like being bullied as a pedestrian by cyclists blasting along at 20mph on a 100kg machine on the pavement because it’s a one-way street and they want to go the other way.

And I followed one in Leeds the other day going a cool 30mph uphill. That’s got to be 40mph on the flat in anybody’s currency and that’s faster than my first two mopeds could manage when I had a helmet, road tax, a driving license, number plates identifying me and my sins, an MoT and insurance.

So here’s a thought. Don’t ban electric bikes but do require them to have all of the above because, at the end of the day, what could be wrong with that?

Anyway, enough of that. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading

The Oxford Partnership has updated on trading for the period that included both the fifth week of the Six Nations and the Carabao Cup Final. It says that ‘UK pubs experienced a mixed weekend in sales performance. While overall sales declined by 2.1% YoY compared to the same weekend in 2024, pubs saw a +24.3% increase versus the average weekend in 2025, driven by heightened sporting excitement…..’

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Disposable incomes

The ‘crackdown on benefits’ announced by the government is intended to save £5bn by 2030. This is an aspiration but, if it is achieved, it will take money out of the pockets of people with a high propensity to spend it. This is likely to dampen consumption. Elsewhere, talk of supermarket price wars could shift spending and leave more cash available to be spent on hospitality products and services…

Food to go:

Lumina Intelligence’s latest UK Food To Go Market Report 2025 forecasts market growth of 3.3% to take revenues to £24bn in 2025. It says this is ahead of the total eating out market and inflation. Lumina says ‘the sustained demand for convenient, high-quality food options is driving this expansion, with food to go now representing 23.6% of the total eating out market, up +0.6ppts from 2019….’

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Insolvency statistics:

The Insolvency Service has released company failure numbers for February 2025 for both corporations and for individuals. It reports that, in the month of January, there were 2,035 registered insolvencies, 3% higher than in January 2025 (1,978) but 7% lower than the same month in the previous year (2,188 in February 2024)….

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Other news:

Oxford Street. London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan has said that local residents should not be able to vetoe plans for Oxford Street development. Re pedestrianisation, he tells the FT ‘my view frankly speaking is that this is a street of strategic national importance, and it shouldn’t be a handful of residents on either side basically dictating what can and can’t happen….’

Planning issues: Steven Bensusan – president of Blue Note Entertainment Group and son of the original Blue Note Cafe founder Danny Bensusan – has told Sky News that he was “surprised” and “confused” after his late licence application for a London site was turned down, making him question support for live music in the capital.

SHEPHERD NEAME H1 NUMBERS:

Headline figures: Shepherd Neame reports sales for the period of £85.0m (H1 2024: £89.0m) ‘reflecting an increase in pub sales and a decrease in sales from premium bottled ales.’ The company reports statutory profit before tax up to £4.3m (H1 2024: £1.1m) with underlying profit before tax up by +9.9% to £4.2m (H1 2024: £3.8m). The group reports ‘positive cash flow generation’. It says that underlying EBITDA grew by +8.6% to £13.0m (H1 2024: £12.0m). Shepherd Neame has made a ‘continued investment in the business’ with £8.8m of capital expenditure (H1 2024: £7.4m), including £3.9m on a freehold acquisition. The group reports underlying basic earnings per share of 20.1p (H1 2024: 18.3p), an increase of +9.8%. NAV is up to £12.21 (H1 2024: £11.92) and the interim dividend is to be 4.35p (H1 2024: 4.20p), an increase of +3.6%. The company adds that ‘in February 2025, a £0.5m share buyback
was completed which will enhance earnings per share and net assets per share.’

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COMPANY NEWS:

Cornish Bakery has announced that it has appointed Tamweel to oversee a sale of the business. The company currently has 66 bakeries located across the country. Cornish Bakery reports that developments have ‘positioned it at the forefront of the fast-growing bakery coffee shop segment – a segment that is forecast to grow at c.9% per year from 2025-2027, driven by increasing consumer demand for premium baked goods alongside top-quality coffee….’

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Costa Coffee’s property & store development director Nick Ridley has told the MCA’s Food to Go conference that it will open up to 45 new drive-thru locations this year. The company adds that it has a strong pipeline for drive-thru sites over the next three years….

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Hotelier Hyatt is reported to be targeting the UK for expansion as a “priority growth market.” The group expects to add around 1,000 rooms to its UK stock before the end of next year.

Liverpool’s first five in over 100 years is to be opened as a part of the £1 billion King Edward Triangle scheme.

Airbnb is set to raise its marketing spend and hire more employees reports the Wall Street Journal. In February the company said it would invest $200 million to $250 million to set up new businesses.

Teesside International Airport is reported to be in talks with tenants over a 250-job development that could see some £16m invested in the travel hub.

OTHER LEISURE:

The BBC reports Stewart Kenny, one of the founders of betting firm Paddy Power, as saying that online slot machines should be more heavily regulated…

Manchester United has defended its decision to raise season-ticket prices despite poor performances. Everything is relative, of course, but tickets are to rise by 5% next season, which the club suggests is ‘fair and reasonable…’

The film production company behind franchises including The Matrix and the Joker films, has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Former Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean has warned the chancellor that removing regulations could increase risk across the economy. He says ‘we’ve got ourselves into a frankly pretty ridiculous position where we’re doing fiscal fine-tuning to control the OBR forecast five years ahead.’

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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