DPP, Naked Wines, JDW, Playtech, Spring Statement, delivery & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We’ve got Mr Trump banging on about making America great again but I wonder if he’s stopped to think that, if you made every country in the world ‘great’ again, you’d need a globe about three times the size of the one we inhabit.

Which isn’t really much of an option.

And I’m not sure how well making Mexico great again would go down chez Donald.

It would have major consequences for about a third of the states of the US and putting Russia back to its 1914 borders might rankle in Poland, Finland the Baltic states, Ukraine, most of central Asia etc.

And let’s not mention Germany, the Roman Empire or Genghis Khan but maybe putting Yorkshire back to its Saxon borders, fair enough you’d have to call it Northumbria, might be a workable idea.

Not sure how a county running between the Humber, the Mersey, the Clyde and the Forth would go down in Scotland, though. Or in Lancashire, for that matter but, as I’m penning these words from a deckchair in sunny York, the former capital of Northumbria, I can see the merits.

On to the news:

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SPRING STATEMENT

Economy:

Basically, growth down, welfare spending growth down, defence spending up and most other things – including tax rates and allowances – as they were….

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Responses:

Many observers concede that the statement was broadly as expected. The geopolitical environment has changed but the BBC says ‘the reality is this course correction is likely to have been required even before US President Donald Trump transformed global diplomacy and trade….’

The CBI CEO, Rain Newton-Smith, says ‘weaker growth this year is a serious setback but not a surprise given the burden businesses are shouldering after the Budget.’ She welcomes cuts in the public sector saying ‘it is the right approach that the government asks of the public sector the same as it has been expecting of business since the Budget – to absorb costs through agility, modernisation and innovation….’

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The hospitality sector has reacted with some disappointment. UKH CEO Kate Nicholls says the failure to address changing employer National Insurance Contributions will stifle employment in critical sectors like hospitality. She says ‘today’s statement was yet another missed opportunity to avoid an April cliff edge, which will level a devastating £3.4 billion annual increase to the sector’s tax bill….’

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Conclusion:

There can’t be much chance that, at this late stage, that the reduction in business rates’ support, reductions in NIC thresholds to catch part-timers, rises in employers’ NIC rates or the rise in the minimum wage will be delayed, far less dropped. And this, though expected, will be something of a challenge for the sector, maybe particularly so for operators serving customers who may be about to see their benefits reduced.

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Delivery & takeaway:

CGA by NIQ’s February Hospitality at Home Tracker reveals that ‘cost of living pressures’ are holding hold down delivery and takeaway sales. It says that ‘like-for-like sales were up by only 1.7% from February 2024—below the country’s current rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Prices Index.’ CGA points out that this ‘follows a 0.6% drop in January, which was the Tracker’s first negative number for more than 12 months….’

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Coffee prices:

Lumina Intelligence’s Menu Tracker reports that the average cost of an Americano has risen by 15% since 2022. Lumina adds that, more than 15% of UK adults buy at least one coffee out of home each week….

COMPANY NEWS:

JDW buybacks: JD Wetherspoon on Tuesday spent some £570k in buying back 100k of its own shares for cancellation at 566.7p per share. Yesterday, the group spent another £2.7m to buy back for cancellation a further 479k shares at an average price of 556.3p.

DP Poland reports that it is to buy Mastergrupa sp, trading as Pizzeria 105 in Poland. The purchase is a franchised quick service pizza restaurant business that operates 90 locations across Poland. The total consideration for the shares in Pizzeria 105 amounted to PLN 42.3 million (c. £8.5 million). DPP adds that the seller, Marcin Ciesielski, is to re-invest one third of the Consideration, some PLN 13.4 million (c.£2.7 million) by subscribing  for 23,582,322 new ordinary shares at 11.4p each….

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Naked Wines today updates on trading saying that  ‘the Group’s FY25 performance continues to track in line with expectations and the guidance communicated at the Peak Trading Update in late January 2025.’ The group has updated on its plans for the future. CEO Rodrigo Maza says ‘we now have a powerful plan’ which he says fulfils the promises he made earlier to deliver value to shareholders.

Pho Restaurants, Rosa’s Thai, and Mowgli Street Food are to be put together to form what will be the UK’s largest Asian-oriented multi-brand casual dining operator. The combined group, to be known as Arcturus Group, will be chaired by Robin Rowland…

JW Lees has announced the opening of Craigside Manor, Llandudno, after acquiring the site from Whitbread in August 2024 and a thirteen-week closure with a £1.2m refurbishment. The newly refurbished hotel and pub ‘features 20 stylish and cosy rooms, with many boasting coastal and hillside views…’

Parogon Pub Group, which operates ‘a collection of ten premium dining sites at the year end. Nine of the venues are marketed as individual destination restaurants and one is an all-day Mediterranean inspired offer called Willow,’ has reported accounts to Companies House for the year to 30 June 2024: Trading – numbers: The company reports revenues up by 11.3% to £24.1m with gross profit up by 16.4% to £8.6m. The GP% margin rose from 34.2% to 35.8%. Admin costs are up by 13.2% and the company reports an operating profit of £208k against an operating loss of £92k in the prior year. Interest costs have risen on higher rates from £267k to £498k and the company reports a loss before taxation of £284k (FY23: loss £355k)….

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

The latest Hotel Guest Survey from BVA BDRC suggests that domestic business travel demand has risen over the past two years. It goes on to suggest that own-brand websites are considered to offer better value than are OTAs….

Tube union the RMT has welcomed non-foldable e-bikes being banned from London Underground following a long campaign. It says that ‘recent fires involving e-bikes with large batteries on the network, have caused safety concerns amongst tube workers and passengers.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Playtech has reported full year numbers saying that revenue has risen in the year to December 3034 by 5% to €1.79bn. Adjusted EBITDA is up by 11% at €480.4m and the group reports trebled post tax profits of €58.8m…

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

Responding to yesterday’s news that the rate of CPI in the UK had dropped from 3% to 2.8%, the CBI says this was ‘broadly in line with the Bank of England’s expectations.’ It adds ‘looking ahead, price pressures are set to rise again in April, driven by higher energy costs, regulated price increases, and the passthrough of Autumn Budget measures.’

Commenting on the likely path for interest rates, the CBI says ‘we continue to expect that the Monetary Policy Committee will cut interest rates at a quarterly pace over 2025, in line with its ‘gradual and careful’ forward guidance. This should help ease the strain of high borrowing costs on businesses and households.’

Sterling lower at $1.2910 and €1.1933. Oil lower at $73.75. UK 10 year gilt yield down 6 basis points at 4.71%. World markets mixed to lower yesterday and London set to open down around 32 points as at 6.30am.

US President Donald Trump has announced that he is to levy tariffs of 25% on cars and car parts imported into the US.

Mr Trump has said he could cut tariffs on China in order to help the sale of TikTok.

The SMMT in the UK reports that vehicle production fell by 11.6% in February, the 12th consecutive month of decline. CEO Mike Hawes says ‘these are worrying times for UK vehicle makers with car production falling for 12 months in a row, rising trade tensions and weak demand.’

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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