Costs & pricing, wages, trading, Artisanal Spirits, Gaming Realms & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I know pretty much every driver in Britain, in the world, for that matter, considers themselves ‘above average’.

Which can’t be true, of course, but I can’t help thinking that, when it comes to genuinely bad driving, it’s like a game where I don’t know the rules.

A bit like American Football.

I’m vaguely aware that there are rules is what looks for all the world like a massive free-for-all but just what they are escapes me and it’s the same with drivers who overtake on the brow of a hill, block you at junctions and then speed off when the lights turn from green to amber and slow down to turn left, don’t and then speed up, slow down again, speed up and then slam their brakes on and turn left.

This time without indicating at all, it must be in the rules and then, when they come to park, they do it two feet from the kerb and make sure it’s on a blind bend.

However, for the traffic cops and parking wardens out there, I accept that I should probably abide by the mantra that only the man without sin has the right to cast the first stone.

Anyway, commiserations to the now-somewhat-desperate Hull City and let’s move on to the news:

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THE OUTLOOK FOR COSTS & PRICING:

Introduction: There was no last minute reprieve in last week’s Spring Statement hence, mindful of the fact that this is a huge topic that we can only cover in outline, it seems appropriate to comment on the outlook for costs & pricing:

Backdrop:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

The warmer weather helped drink sales report CGA’s latest Daily Drinks Trackers, which cover the weeks to 15 and 22 March. In the first of the two weeks, drink sales were up by a sub-inflation 2% on the same week last year. The week to 22 March was better as sales were up by 5%, almost double the rate of price inflation. The week to 22 March marked the fourth consecutive week of nominal sales growth…

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Rising wage costs: Workforce impact:

The Resolution Foundation has pointed out that, whilst the NIC and NLW changes that impact this week will add 3.4 per cent to average labour costs, the increase will not be evenly spread across earnings groups. The cost increase will be 6.6 per cent for the bottom 10 per cent of earners but just 1.7 per cent for the top 10 per cent…..

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Consumer disposable income:

A number of bills will be rising next month, that is from tomorrow. This will reduce disposable incomes available to spend on non-essential products and services. Bills that are known set to rise include water bills (by around £120 a year), energy bills (up by £111 a year), council tax (up by around 5% in most cases, much more for second home owners), car tax, broadband, phone and TV licence costs and Stamp Duty.

Cost hurdle:

With rates support reducing from tomorrow and NIC and NLW changes also kicking in, the cost outlook for hospitality is about to change materially. The Guardian reports that ‘an increase in national insurance and a rising living wage is leading to predictions of a hiring freeze across the sector….’

Other news:

The Telegraph reports that ‘British restaurants are targeting the US as Labour prepares to hammer them with higher taxes at home….’

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Employment. Gig risks. New legislation could lead to company executives hiring unregistered employees unable to work in the UK being at risk of imprisonment for up to five years. Businesses could be legally shut down and be fined £60k per employee if workers are not correctly checked…

The Society of Independent Brewers and Associates is to make available a new free portal at www.guestbeer.co.uk which allows pub tenants to check that beer brands are eligible for the Guest Beer Agreement scheme in Scotland.fs

Champagne shipments to UK are reported to have fallen by 12.7% in 2024 against 2023. The UK nonetheless remains the second biggest export market for Champagne behind the US.

The Guardian reports that ministers, senior officials and special advisers were treated to hospitality including lunches, dinners, and sometimes tickets on about 3,500 occasions in five years.

COMPANY NEWS:

Artisanal Spirits has reported full year numbers to end-December saying that revenue rose marginally to £23.6m with EBITDA of £1.1m vs an EBITDA loss of £0.5m in the prior year. The company reports a loss before tax of £3.1m against a loss last year of £3.6m…

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Naked Wines has announced that ‘Rowan Gormley has notified the Board of his decision to step down as Non-Executive Chairman and as a Director of the Company with immediate effect.’ It adds that Deidre Runnette, Senior Independent Director, will assume the role of Non-Executive Chairman on an interim basis until a successor is appointed.

Daniel Thwaites PLC on Friday announced that Susan Woodward, Company Secretary since 2004, will retire from her role on 1 April 2025. Jayne Kirkham will be appointed Company Secretary from the same date. Jayne is a Chartered Accountant and has worked for the Company since 2006.

The MCA reports Papa John’s UK MD Chris Phylactou as saying that the company is looking to grow this year from its “much stronger” cohort of franchisees. The MD says ‘we’re very much focusing on quality over quantity.’ He says ‘if we’re honest, we had way too many partners for the number of restaurants we had. We feel that we’ve got a much more engaged group, and operationally, they’re much stronger.’

Patty & Bun management has said that it ‘remains confident the business has a profitable and bright future’ after completing its latest restructuring. Founder Joe Grossman told the MCA that, ‘with funding being made available by existing investors, Patty & Bun will continue to trade from all its sites and all staff will be kept on to help build the business to a bigger and better future.’

Boxpark Shoreditch, which recently secured a lease extension, is reported to have welcomed 12 new traders including five new food operators to its site.

The New World Trading Company has reported revenue of £73.5m for the 52 weeks to 31 March 2024. It adds that The Botanist brand is now its focus for growth. The company underwent a CVA in October last year.

US coffee shop operator Dutch Bros aims to double its store count in the US over the next five years to reach 2,029 outlets in 2029.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Butlin’s CEO Jon Hendry Pickup has told the Sunday Times that his company creates jobs but he asks ‘where’s the help for us?’ Mr Hendry says that Butlin’s employs 4,500 people across its three resorts but the company, like virtually all other companies in hospitality and most across the wider economy, faces higher labour costs.

The Nationwide reports that consumer spending on holidays and travel is up by 520% since the Covid-impacted year of 2021.

UK Hospitality Scotland has reiterated its view that a Highland visitor levy should be postponed. Leon Thompson says ‘the rushed proposals put forward by Highland Council are clearly not suitable for consultation and I would urge the Council to take them back to the drawing board.’ He says ‘the level of detail put forward is not detailed enough, and the lack of proper engagement by the Council with local businesses is telling.’

PE house Blackstone has taken a 22 per cent stake in AGS Airports, which operates the Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton airports.

OTHER LEISURE:

Mobile games company Gaming Realms reports full year numbers to end-December saying that revenue rose by 22% to £28.5m with adjusted EBITDA up 30% at £13.1m. The company adds that PBT rose by 61% to £8.3m…

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Games developer Rockstar Games is set to unveil Grand Theft Auto VI in the autumn, some 12 years after the release of GTA V.

Elon Musk’s AI venture xAI is reported to have purchased X (was Twitter) in a move that some say may be aimed at protecting investors who helped fund the purchase of X from losing money.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling mixed at $1.2954 and €1.1963. Oil lower at $73.40. UK 10 year gilt yield down 9 basis points at 4.70%. World markets lower on Friday & London set to open some 53 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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