Trading, costs & prices, tariffs, Tasty, Club Med, Safestay & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I’m told the world divides into people who can roll their tongue into a tube shape and people who can’t.

Apparently two thirds of people can do it and, as it’s genetic, it’s hardly surprising that everyone around me, essentially my family, can do it.

It’s not much of a life skill, I have to admit, and I think a more significant genetice dimorphism (why use a little word when a big one will do) is the split between people who quite like the skin on their custard and people who look as though they’re been force-fed prussic acid when you so much as mention it.

And milky coffee can cultivate quite a stodgy topping.

I don’t mind it at all, if you were wondering which side of the chasm I was coming down on but it can end up on your chin if you don’t dispose of it one way or that other, and that’s rarely a good look.

Anyway, well done Hull City, keeping us on our toes as they scrape a win but show that they’re as determined to make it as hard as possible to stay in the Championship.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

S4 Labour has reported that hospitality sales slipped in March with food-led units performing more strongly than their wet-led peers…

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Costs:

With NIC changes now upon us – admittedly not due to be felt until wage returns are submitted at the end of the month – Sky News reports that the impact will not be felt proportionately across the economy as a whole…

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Tariffs:

It would appear that beer in tins will be hit by the US’s newly-proposed 25% tariff to be levied on aluminium and steel rather than the 20% to be applied to EU goods or the 10% levied against the UK…

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Other news:

Tariffs & coffee. Coffee isn’t grown in the US. It has to be imported and, with Brazil and Columbia now subject to 10% tariffs, the price is set to rise….

COMPANY NEWS:

Tasty PLC, which operates the Wildwood and Dim T chains of restaurants, is to reboot Eat Out to Help Out at its units in order to promote sales…

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Stock Spirits Group has purchased The Drinks Company, UK-based spirits importer and distributor. Stock Spirits says ‘expanding into the UK is a pivotal moment for the group. Our vision is to become a leading spirits company in Europe by 2027 and a foothold in the UK is key to achieving this success.’

The MCA reports Yard Sale Pizza, the London neighbourhood pizza brand, is set to supercharge its growth following investment from leading consumer specialist investor Piper. It says the investment will help Yard Sale expand further across London and into new cities, with a goal of reaching 40 shops in five years….

The Sunday Times reports that AlixPartners has drafted in advisers to sell a minority stake in the consulting giant.

THE OUTLOOK FOR COSTS & PRICING:

Herewith a piece we put out to clients before NIC, living wage and business rates changes kicked in.

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Club Med has reported 6% growth in UK sales in 2024 vs the prior year. The UK business is now up some 25% on from pre-Covid levels. The number of holidaymakers staying at the operator’s resorts rose by 1% to over 1.5 million with average daily rate up by 7% to €232.

The FT reports that ‘UK ministers are closing in on a deal to secure billions of pounds of investment from American media giant Comcast to build what could be the biggest theme park in Europe in a disused Bedford brickworks….’

The FT reports that US vacation hotspots are bracing for a Trump slump ‘as angry Canadians cancel trips.’

John Gauvreau has visited Las Vegas more than 30 times this century, but he will not be returning this year….

The Telegraph quotes Larry Lipman, chairman of Safestay, as saying that his company would have to rely on automated self check-in booths instead of human staff as costs have risen as a result of the October Budget….

Safestay announces this morning that ‘it has received planning approval to develop a new 170-bed hostel in the heart of Brighton’. It says that the ‘planning approval follows the Group’s acquisition in June 2024 of the freehold property on Pavilion Parade for a total consideration of £2.275 million….’

OTHER LEISURE:

The BBC alleges that Apple and Google have been presenting its news and podcasts on iPhones in a “diminished” way that “erodes” quality. The BBC has written to the Competition and Markets Authority urging the regulator to intervene.

President Trump has extended the time allowed for TikTok to be sold to a non-Chinese buyer in order to avoid a ban. The latest deadline expired on Saturday.

Celebrity owners of Wrexham AFC, Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, are reported to be looking for new investors to help them fund the club, which currently plays in League One.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

In the government’s Spring Statement, the OBR forecast that the UK economy would lose between 0.3% and 0.6% of GDP if the UK became were hit by US tariffs. This has now come to pass. The ICAEW says the moves in the US ‘will probably have wiped out the Chancellor’s hopes for an uplift to UK growth this year and thrown her fiscal plans into jeopardy.’

Accountant KPMG reports that the UK economy could take a “material hit” from President Trump’s tariffs. It says that growth could slow to 0.8 per cent this year and next. It had previously forecast growth of 1.7 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent next year…

Goldman Sachs reports a 45-per-cent chance to a recession. It says, however, that if the uplift in tariffs scheduled for 9 April, which is most of them, are enacted, then it believes a recession in the US is more likely than not.

JP Morgan is now predicting the President Trump’s tariffs will tip his country into recession. It says ‘we now expect real GDP to contract under the weight of the tariffs. For the full year, we now look for real growth of negative 0.3pc, down from 1.3pc previously.’ Given the rate of population growth in the US, the impact per capita will be markedly greater.

Jaguar Land Rover has paused shipments of UK-made cars to the US for a month in order to assess changed circumstances.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that employment in the US rose by 228,000 in March.

US stock markets last week registered their worst week since the first Covid fears in March 2020.

Sterling weaker at $1.2899 and €1.1750. Oil sharply lower on recession fears at $64.20. UK 10 year gilt yield also sharply down by another 8 basis points at 4.45%, also on recession concerns. Markets lower on Friday, Far East down in Monday trade and London set to open around 173 points lower as at 7am.

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