Saga, Cameron’s, Caravan, interest rates, demand, trading & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

So, the odd shoelace that I’ve had in my desk drawer since Tony Blair left Number Ten has finally come in useful.

And, like all those dinky faux Tupperware boxes that come with your takeaway food, the bendy wire that holds together every cable you’ve ever bought and the large, ornamental paperclip that could be used to clip folding money together if only you still used cash, I knew it would.

Fair enough, it wasn’t quite the right length.

And it was definitely a tad yellower than looks good with a black shoe and the mauve spots look odd but waste not, want not and there had to be a reason I’d kept it through more changes of government than any of us care to remember.

However, it should also perhaps be noted that, if somebody took all of my numerous knickknack drawers and emptied them into a skip, it might be a decade or more before I noticed, so what to do?

Tip them out and go through all the items one-by-one?

Because I know I’ll still find them all potentially useful and, a bit like spring-cleaning the garden shed, it would simply waste an hour or two and, reverse-Tardis-like, nothing would fit back in.

So, unlike the markets, it’s a problem for another day. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Interest rate cuts:

Whilst 10 year bond rates have picked up sharply from their Monday lows – and always mindful of the fact that Trump policies have been subject to U-turns in the past – tariff developments do arguably make it likely that interest rate cuts could come sooner – and more rapidly follow on the back of one-another – than would have otherwise been the case…

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Consumer demand:

Following on from the above, the BBC reports that ‘some lenders are set to cut rates on mortgages after turmoil from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy raised expectations that UK interest rates could be cut further this year…’

Trading:

Meaningful Vision has reported that restaurant footfall fell by nearly 7.7% in January and February 2025 compared to the same months last year….

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More recently, Lumina Intelligence reports that visit frequency in the eating out market was up by 8.3% in the four weeks to 16 March…

Costs:

City AM reports that many of London’s restaurants feel that they can’t take more punishing tax hikes…

Other news:

Tokyo-based global drinks company Suntory has said that it will ‘produce and try to sell locally’ into the Japanese market in the face of US tariffs.

COMPANY NEWS:

Private Company Accounts – Cameron’s Brewery Ltd: Introduction: Cameron’s Brewery Limited, which brews in Hartlepool and which owned 45 pubs in the area at its year end (down from 47 in the prior year and from 75 in the FY22), has reported full year numbers for the 53-weeks to 5 Jan 2025 to Companies’ House. The group says it performed ‘very well in the year…’

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Caravan has reported a 10.4% increase in revenue to £24.4m in the year ending 30 June 2024. EBITDA is up 91.6% to £1.92m reports the MCA…

Sandwich chain Which Wich reports that it is to expand further into central London ‘with the planned launch of its newest location on Fleet Street’. It says this ‘showcases the scalability of its modern, multi-channel business model.’

SAGA PLC – FULL YEAR NUMBERS:

Saga has this morning reported full year numbers and our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers: Saga reports revenues up 4% at £588.3m. Trading EBITDA is up 18% at £137.1m and underlying PBT is up 23% at £47.8m. The underlying profit from ongoing operations is £37.2m (2024: £34.3m). The company reports underlying EPS from continuing operations of 18.1p and there is no dividend. Net debt is £590.5m against debt last year of £637.2m.

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

The TTG comments on the proposals that are being put forward in the new consultation on reforming the Package Travel Regulations (which impose additional responsibilities on parties ‘packaging’ holidays…

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IHG Hotels & Resorts has updated on its plans re its upper-midscale brands in Greater China — Atwell Suites, EVEN Hotels, Holiday Inn, and Holiday Inn Express – saying that it is ‘focused on optimizing investment structures and ongoing brand refreshments, the upgraded strategy is designed to deliver high-efficiency, high-return solutions for hotel owners in this fast-evolving market.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Podcast company Audioboom has reported full year numbers to end-December 2024 saying that it generated 2024 revenue of US$73.4 million, up 13% on 2023 (US$65.0 million). It adds that ‘Audioboom’s revenue growth is ahead of the IAB’s 2024 industry growth forecast’ and says that annual adjusted EBITDA profit was ‘approximately US$3.4 million, up US$3.8 million on 2023 (adjusted EBITDA loss US$0.4 million) and significantly ahead of the thrice upgraded 2024 market expectations…’

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Meta is reported to be extending its Teen Accounts to Facebook and Messenger. Younger teens on the platform will have more restricted settings by default.

The BBC reports that Trump administration member Elon Musk has called President Donald Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, a “moron” over comments he made about his electric vehicle firm, Tesla. He has reportedly further said that he is as ‘dumb as a bag of rocks’.

Vue CEO Tim Richards has said that the film version of video game Minecraft is proving to be the chain’s strongest film since the 2023 Barbie release. The first weekend broke recent records & he says ‘we are expecting this amazing performance to continue this week.’

The BBC reports that Cardiff Rugby is intending to appoint administrators. It is thought that the Welsh Rugby Union could step in to prevent this from happening as happened with Wasps in England.

Aspers, a casino business, is reportedly facing a restructure after filing a notice of intention to appoint an administrator. This triggers a moratorium period in which the company can explore potential business recovery options.

President Donald Trump’s 104% tariff on products imported from China comes into effect today.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Resolution Foundation reports that the UK has seen an ‘almost unprecedented’ drop in productivity over the last five years, which have seen the country leave the EU. The Foundation says that GDP per head fell by 0.5pc between 2019 and 2024, the worst drop since the 1970s excluding the 2007-08 financial crisis.

Beijing has said it will ‘fight to the end’ the tariffs being imposed by President Donald Trump.

Sterling mixed at $1.2841 and €1.1628. Oil sharply lower at $60.27. UK 10 year gilt yield down 2 basis points at 4.60%. Markets up in the UK & Europe yesterday but down in the US and further down in Asia in Wednesday trading. London set to open around 240 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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