SSP Group, Gregg’s, Comptoir, food price inflation, mobility & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

For the first time in quite a while I saw four rabbits in the garden yesterday and so, unfortunately, did the dog – and she’s been reading her history books.

Because she seems to be aware that the 24 rabbits introduced into Australia in 1859 became some 10 billion by 1920 and she’s keen that we don’t leave a similar problem for our heirs.

Her solution, of course, so far thankfully not enacted successfully, is to tear the little bunnies into pieces and strut around the garden thereafter licking her lips and looking rather proud of herself.

And, so far, she’s got the ‘lying down in the shade and eyeballing them’ bit of the solution worked out – and she’s occasionally run headlong into the shed under which they are sheltering – but the rest of the solution has thus far eluded her.

Mostly because she’s an idiot, of course but, sadly for the rabbits, the local foxes aren’t.

Anyway, whilst waiting for nature to likely take its course, we’ll fall back on negotiation rather than violence when it comes to trying to keep the things off our flowers.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Foodservice price inflation:

Lynx Purchasing has warned that hospitality operators face further pressure on profits this summer, with inflation expected to drive up prices on a range of core menu products. It says ‘with staple products such as meat, potatoes and dairy already recording price increases significantly ahead of the headline rate of inflation, operators face the dilemma of whether to raise menu prices for customers already feeling the pinch or try to absorb the increases….’

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Trading:

The Oxford Partnership reports that ‘April saw a welcome rebound in draught beer sales, driven by Easter trading and early spring sunshine.’ It says ‘total volumes rose +5.0% in the latest four weeks, with standout growth in Premium Lager (+12.8%) and World Lager (+18.5%) as consumers continued to favour premium brands. Stout also remained strong, while Craft Beer returned to growth for the first time in months….’

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Consumer disposable incomes:

Cornwall Insight, which has been accurate in the past, is forecasting that domestic energy prices will fall in July for the first time in a year. It says the bill for an average household should fall by £129 a year, or around 7%…

Independent brewers:

SIBA reports that the start of 2025 has been ‘tough for independent brewers’ as the number of UK brewers continues to drop. It says that there were 136 fewer brewers as of the end of March 2025 compared to 31st March 2024. This is ‘continuing the downward trend reported in January where it was shown the UK had lost 100 breweries since the start of 2024….’

Labour mobility:

UKH has responded to the UK-EU re-set saying that it wants to see ‘maximum flexibility’ for critical cultural exchange and economic benefit. It says ‘the UK and EU has agreed to co-operate further on a ‘youth experience scheme’, which would allow young people to work and travel freely in both the UK and Europe. While this is subject to further negotiation, it says this would mirror existing schemes with Australia and New Zealand….

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Small company employment:

Startups.co.uk says that ‘new data shows there has been a dip in SME employment amid a major job market slowdown.’ It observes that the latest Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index reports a 0.59% drop in employment across firms with under ten employees in April. This marks the first decline in five months….’

Other news:

Hospitality salaries. KAM in partnership with Access Group has reported that salaries across the UK’s hospitality sector are an average of 10.3% lower this year than they were last year, with pay in the hotel sector showing the steepest decline, down 17%.’ There must be a considerable amount of ‘mix-change’ in the above as LFL salaries will not have fallen…

Pub accommodation. The 2025 Pub Accommodation Review, commissioned by Stay in a Pub, supported by Visit England and Zonal Hotel Solutions and conducted by CGA by NIQ, suggests that atmosphere is key in attracting guests to stay overnight in pubs…

UKH. UKH is now seven years old. It reports that, over the past 18 months, it has ‘significantly grown its membership across all types and size of business – from independent pubs, restaurants and hotels, to major UK-wide operators.’

GREGG’S – AGM UPDATE – FIRST 20 WEEKS’ TRADING:

Headline figures: Gregg’s reports total sales up 7.4% to £784 million and LFL sales up 2.9% with ‘improved performance in the last 11 weeks supported by  better trading conditions.’ The company reports that it has opened 66 shops with 46 closures to give 2,638 shops now trading. Gregg’s adds that it has a ‘strong pipeline’ and it remains ‘confident in 140-150 net openings for the full year.’ There are no changes in cost inflation expectations and the group says that its investments to increase supply chain capacity are on track. Profit expectations ‘for the full year outcome remain unchanged’. Re the direction of travel, Gregg’s reports that its ‘performance improved through the first 20 weeks of 2025.’ It says that ‘product innovation is playing its part.’

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SSP GROUP – H1 NUMBERS:

SSP reports revenue up 9% at £1.66bn with EBITDA some 8% higher at £114m. The company reports an operating profit of £45m, up 20% on last year and EPS is a loss of 0.4p per share compared with a loss of 1p at this stage last year. SSP is proposing a dividend of 1.4p against 1.2p in H1 last year. Net debt is £161m, an improvement of £79m on H1 – 2024.

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COMPANY NEWS:

Comptoir has reported full year numbers to 29 Dec 2024 saying that group revenue was £34.6m, up by 10.0% on prior year (2023: £31.5m), with LFL sales up 2.0%. The company generated adjusted EBITDA before highlighted items of £0.8m (2023: £0.1m). It is reporting an ‘IFRS loss after tax of £1.9m (2023: loss of £1.6m)’. The group says that adjusted net cash at the end of year was £3.0m (2023: £4.7m). The basic loss per share for the year was (1.58) pence (2023: (1.30) pence)…

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Gregg’s has said that it is to take some products from its self-serve counters in order to combat shoplifting.

Sky News reports that The Restaurant Group is ‘in talks to buy a chunk of Oakman Group, the pub and restaurant chain.’ It says TRG is ‘in advanced discussions to buy some of the privately held company’s assets.’ It does, however, also quote ‘industry sources’ as saying that ‘Oakman and its advisers were negotiating with other prospective bidders about a sale of its remaining assets….’

Diageo’s shares yesterday closed down around 1% on the back of its Q3 trading update. The group reported that, as they currently stand, US tariffs would cost the company around $150m. It said it would cut costs and added ‘our long track record of managing international tariffs gives us confidence in our ability to navigate this successfully.’

Yolk is reported to be targeting a 50-site estate in the UK. It is also said to be considering expansion overseas and is in the process of raising some £1.5m to fund expansion.

PepsiCo yesterday reported that it has closed the acquisition of poppi for $1.95 billion. It reiterates its view that ‘this acquisition marks a significant step in PepsiCo’s ongoing transformation of its portfolio, reinforcing its commitment to meeting evolving consumer preferences for great-tasting, functional products.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Baldwins Travel has called in receivers after the company left Abta and the Advantage Travel Partnership.

Travel Weekly reports that Abta and the Advantage Travel Partnership have welcomed the UK’s deal struck with the EU after confirmation that it includes an agreement that UK travellers will be able to use e-gates at passport control in EU airports.

Ryanair Group yesterday reported full year numbers and said that average fares had fallen by 7%. Passenger numbers were up by 9% but profits were down by around 16% at €1.61bn…

Air sales in the US fell in April by 4% compared with the same month in 2024. The Air Reporting Corp says ‘business travel contended with increased economic uncertainty and the Easter holiday falling in late April, which affected year-over-year corporate passenger trip comparisons.’

CoStar comments that immigration restrictions in the UK are likely to push up labour costs for the UK hotel industry.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

PM Keir Starmer says that the UK-EU reset ‘marks a new era in our relationship.’ Journalists suggested that it could claw back around a twentieth of the loss to GDP caused by Brexit by 2030 or and some opponents have said that the UK has had to agree to submit to EU rules with no input…

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Sterling mixed at $1.3367 and €1.1891. Oil higher at $65.38. UK 10 year gilt yield unchanged at 4.65%. World markets better yesterday and London set to open up around 36 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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