MAB meeting, GAW update, insolvencies, consumer confidence & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

There seems to me to be only a thin band of temperatures within which you can get anything done.

Fifteen degrees is too cold, certainly if you’re sitting still or working at a desk and 22 or 23 is too hot and, as if to put the lower figures to the test – and to jinx Bank Holidays, of course – it’s getting chillier.

So we’ll have to flip over the sign that says ‘too hot to work’ but we’re just a tad busy at the moment, believe it or not, so it just remains to say have a good long weekend and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer confidence:

GfK has updated on UK consumer confidence saying that it increased by three points in May to minus twenty. GfK says that there were ‘small improvements in how consumers see their personal finances and the wider economy in the coming year…’

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Demographics:

The grey pound could get a boost, modest it has to be said, if winter fuel payments are reintroduced for all or most pensioners. That said, the government is giving itself a bit of wiggle room (and is trying to avoid the allegation of having made a U turn) by saying that the economy will have to be “strong enough” for reverse to take place.

UK hospitality market:

UKH comments on the UK market saying that it is ‘entering a pivotal period of transformation.’ It says that ‘opposing forces are shaping the direction of the sector and the landscape is becoming increasingly dichotomised.’ It says ‘on one end streamlined speed and convenience is taking over, whilst immersive, high-touch experiences are becoming more prominent on the other end….’

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Disposable incomes:

Government borrowing numbers yesterday surprised on the upside and there has been some talk of tax rises down the line…

WFH:

The drift back to the office continues, but it is hardly a flood. HSBC has told staff in the UK that their bonuses may be at risk if they not work in the office enough….

Insolvency statistics:

The Insolvency Service has released company failure numbers for April 2025 for both corporations and for individuals. It reports that, in England & Wales in the month of April, there were 2,053 company insolvencies. This was ‘3% higher than in March 2025 (1,996) but 5% lower than the same month in the previous year (2,163 in April 2024)….’

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More on corporate distress:

Begbies Traynor, the professional services company that derives some of its income from restructuring companies, this morning updates on its own trading saying that ‘the group has delivered double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, ahead of consensus expectations, marking its tenth successive year of profit growth.’ It says ‘this reflects strong demand across the breadth of the group’s services – from insolvency through to complex restructuring and our broad range of complementary financial and real estate advisory services….’

Other news:

Champagne. Shipments of champagne rose for deliveries both to European markets and markets outside the EU in the first four months of this year…

Restaurant market in the US. Accountant Deloitte’s 2025 Future of Restaurants and Food Service report suggests that growth in the US market is likely to comprise targeting new dayparts, dealing with the rise of new formats such as walk-up, drive-thru, and digital-only kitchens and looking to growth overseas.

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS – H1 ANALYSTS’ MEETING:

Following the release of its H1 numbers, M&B hosted a meeting for analysts. The company reports this has been a ‘great start to the year’. LFL sales were up 4.3% but, if Easter & Mothers’ Day are normalised, sales year to date are up 4.6%. Group has consistently exceeded the market. This ‘doesn’t just happen’. Late night, where MAB is light, remains the most challenged area of the market. All brands ‘are currently doing well’. Full year result is in line to be ‘right at the top end of consensus’.

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COMPANY NEWS:

Thomas Heier is to step down as CEO of Wagamama UK next month after eight years with the company. The Restaurant Group reports that Mark Chambers, currently CFO of TRG and formerly CEO of Leisure and Concessions division, will take over as CEO of Wagamama UK.

Mark Brooke is to be appointed CEO of Amber Taverns from mid-August as founder and current CEO James Baer moves to the role of chairman. Mark Brooke has led Amber Taverns’ managed division, Proper Pubs, since 2021.

Timothy Taylor & Co. Limited has announced the appointment of Emma Gilleland as Operations Director with effect from the 15th September. Emma is currently Director of Production at Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company,…

In the US, McDonald’s has announced a major change coming to its restaurants nationwide, saying that the ‘vast majority’ of U.S. locations will remain open until midnight or later starting this summer. It adds that restaurants in “non-traditional locations” such as airports and shopping malls will likely not change their hours.

Gloucester motorway service station has been named the best in Britain. Nice views etc apparently make all the difference. There may, it has to be said, be a more intense competition to find the worst.

Sterling up at $1.3450 and €1.1889. Oil lower at $64.11. UK 10 year gilt yield unchanged at 4.75%. World markets broadly lower yesterday but Far East up in Friday trade & London set to open up around 27 points better as at 6.30am.

Midlands operator The Pub People Company has announced the appointment of Julie Centracchio as CFO. The Downing backed business has nearly 50 predominantly freehold pubs. Julie has worked in senior roles at JD Wetherspoon, Peach Pubs and Boston Tea Party. Chairman Mark Crowther says ‘it’s an exciting period for Pub People Company with refurbishments ongoing and further acquisitions under consideration. This is all at a time of continued strong trading, for this well-established Company.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Leeds Bradford Airport’s expansion is set to commence with the airport having secured £160 million in funds. The airport will commence a £100 million terminal expansion.

Unite has suggested that a strike by hundreds of workers who provide assistance at Heathrow airport for passengers with restricted mobility will intensify unless a pay settlement can be achieved.

OTHER LEISURE:

Games Workshop has updated on full year trading for the 52 weeks ending 1 June 2025 saying that ‘we estimate the Group’s core revenue to be not less than £560 million (2023/24: £494.7 million) and licensing revenue of c.£50 million (2023/24: £31.0 million).’ It adds that ‘core operating profit is estimated at not less than £210 million (2023/24: £174.8 million) and licensing operating profit of c.£45 million (2023/24: £27.0 million). The Group’s profit before taxation is estimated to be not less than £255 million (2023/24: £203.0 million)….’

Manchester United shares fell 7% in the US on the back of their loss in the Europa League final where they were beaten 1-0 by Tottenham Hotspur. The club, which is majority owned by the Glazer family and where Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos has a minority stake, has just finished its worst season in over a half century.

Pure Gym yesterday updated on Q1 trading (to end-March) saying that it had mad an ‘excellent start to 2025 with a successful peak trading performance across all geographies.’ The company says that adjusted EBITDA rose to £192m…

Dumbarton Football Club, where Ian Wright and Craig Morrison of Quantuma were appointed as joint administrators in November 2024, has agreed terms on a second rescue deal after the first one collapsed. The joint administrators have agreed terms with Mario Lapointe, described as “a Canadian entrepreneur and business owner with a passion for sport, particularly football”.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS has reported that government borrowing was higher than had been expected in April with spending exceeding tax revenues by £20.2bn. Analysts had been looking for around £17.9bn….

The CBI reports that ‘manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to May, at the joint-steepest pace since August 2020.’ It says ‘looking ahead, output is expected to fall further over the three months to August.’

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