Sector inflation, disposable incomes, Punch Pubs, Flour Power & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

You know all those jobs that you’ve been putting to one side to do when it’s raining and you can’t get outside much?

Like cleaning the office, reorganising the bookshelves, investigating that suspicious stain that’s radiating out from stationery cupboard or clearing out the toxic foods on that manky kitchen shelf; well, yesterday I rained and I reconsidered all of the above in a different light.

Because, in the same way that nighttime me (fifth pint, why not?) is a bit different to 6am me (ugh, what was I thinking?), it turns out that rainy day me has more of a penchant for surfing the net, buying useless junk from Amazon and Shein and betting on which raindrop will make it to the bottom of the window first than it does for getting down to any boring graft.

And, at the end of the day, dust isn’t really dirt, is it?

I mean not in the same way that mud and spilled food are so anyway, here we are. The sun’s shining again and nothing of any consequence was achieved when it rained. On to the news:

LANGTON EMAIL:

The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade.

Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Foodservice price inflation:

Meaningful Vision reports that ‘overall UK foodservice inflation now exceeds 6%.’ It says ‘we’ve seen beef burger prices at major QSRs jump 3% in Q1 alone, with a staggering 5% year-on-year increase. This isn’t just about raw ingredient costs; rising labour expenses are amplifying the pressure on margins.

Disposable incomes:

Deutsche Bank analysts have suggested that taxes will rise by at least £10bn in this year’s Autumn Budget. The bank says ‘with a tough Spending Review due in June, we expect fiscal news to worsen over the coming months.’ If correct, this will reduce levels of disposable income….

MORE ON DISPOSABLE INCOMES:

Whilst GDP has been growing for a number of years, so too has the UK’s population. GDP per capita has fallen. In the three years to Q1 this year and it is perfectly possible for the country to be better off in aggregate but for everyone living in it, on average, to be worse off…..

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

COMPANY NEWS:

Punch Pubs has completed the £640m debt refinancing that it announced last week. This has been flagged for some time but it serves to secure the future and support Punch’s long-term growth strategy….

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

Flour Power Group Ltd, which is majority-owned by Irish private equity firm Causeway Capital, produced its March 2023 accounts only a month ago and, yesterday, it lodged those for March 2024 at Companies’ House. These are also late. Headline revenue slipped from £23.0m to £20.3m (down 11%) but revenue from continuing operations during the year, as a result of the above liquidations, was only £11.3m. The company reports a profit before tax from continuing operations of £4.5m, but only after the credit of £7.2m of exceptional items….

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

The MCA reports that Cornish Bakery is targeting 400 UK shop openings and has appointed its first property director as it looks to grow from its existing 66 sites. The company is currently working with Tamweel Capital to explore a potential sale of the business.

The MA reports that Admiral Taverns has injected £35m into its estate over the past year. CEO Chris Jowsey says ‘we have always championed the importance of community pubs and are committed to working with our publicans to create long-term, sustainable businesses that can sit at the heart of their local areas….’

• He says ‘capex investment is a key part of this strategy, which ranges from major transformational interior and external refurbishments through to important updates, licensee accommodation and long-term structural improvements.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group, has reported that the US hotel industry is at a pivotal moment. He says that ‘we’re beginning to now see some economic data telling us that there are a lot of businesses in wait-and-see mode.’ He says business travel volumes (and hotel capex) are uncertain as a result adding businesses are ‘holding off any major spending. They don’t want to make any significant commitments. They’re not rushing out to hire people, but then, neither are they laying off at this point….’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The OECD has cut its estimates for growth this year on the back of President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs. The OECD has cut its 2025 global estimate from 3.1% expansion to 2.9% due to a ‘significant’ rise in trade barriers.

Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey said yesterday that the trajectory for interest rates is still downwards despite global uncertainties.

EU inflation has fallen to 1.9% in the year to May. ‘Core’ inflation fell to 2.3% from 2.7% in April.

Elon Musk has said that President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill, which the president has called a big and beautiful bill, is ‘outrageous’ and a ‘disgusting abomination’….

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.

The UK will not be hit – for the moment – by US President Donald Trump’s executive order doubling steel and aluminium tariffs from 25% to 50%.

Sterling mixed at $1.3508 and €1.1892. Oil higher at $65.36. UK 10 year gilt yield down 2 basis points at 4.64%. World markets better yesterday and London set to open around 10 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out.