MAB, GRG, MEX, WTB, Gail’s, services, rates, Budget & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Few of us would disagree that AI is anything other than brilliant.

Except, of course, when it isn’t.

When it leads you down the garden path or when it sets you up for a fall by stating that something is the case when it patently isn’t.

There are many examples.

To be fair to AI, it does acknowledge this but when, after railing against the extortionate parking charges being levied in York and checking free or near-free parking with AI, I came across an example of this.

It confirmed what I already knew, that it’s £12 odd for two or three hours pretty much anywhere but then maintained that there was plenty of free parking near the town centre.

Which is true if the answer is a blended mix of references to York, Yorkshire, and York, Pennsylvania but, for the latter, whilst you’d save a few quid on your parking, you’d have a 3,500 mile swim to get anywhere useful.

No disrespect to York, PA, I’m sure it’s wonderful.

Anyway, 2-1 Hull and 5-1 the unstoppable York City at the weekend and we’ll take that. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Backdrop

We are now, as M&B reminded us on Friday, nearer to 2030 than we are to the outbreak of the Covid pandemic. Nonetheless, Covid remains one of the most significant events of recent years and five years ago today, on 1 December 2020, as we were just coming out of the second lockdown and didn’t yet know that we had a third to look forward to, we wrote the piece set underneath Pubs & Restaurants below.

Trading

CGA has released its latest Daily Drinks Tracker, covering the weeks to 8 November and 15 November. In the first of the two weeks, the Tracker reports that total drink sales rose by 2.3% with long drinks once again outperforming. Beer sales were up by 3.6% and cider sales managed a 5.5% increase. Wine was up 0.1% and soft drinks and spirit sales were both down by 3.8%, much worse, of course, post the impact of inflation. In the second of the two weeks, total drink sales were up by 0.5%…

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Business rates:

UKH maintains that the promised business rates reform risks making the situation for hospitality companies worse. It says that ‘eye-watering increases to rateable values will see an average pub pay £12,900 more in business rates over three years, as rates climb 76% for pubs and 115% for hotels.’ The current discount will be reduced materially and ‘new analysis from UKH shows that the average pub’s business rates, even with the reduced multiplier and transitional relief, will increase 15% next year – an extra £1,400….’

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And the Oxford Partnership reports that the ‘average pub faces 78% business rates rise.’ It says that it has ‘analysed more than 15,000 hospitality venues and found that 87.6% will see an increase in Rateable Value from April 2026….’

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More on the Budget:

The MA opines that ‘Rachel Reeves and her Government have ignored the intelligent arguments, the pleas, the advice of experts and pretty much thrown the hospitality sector to the wolves….’

And Philip Thorley, boss of south-east based Thorley Taverns, has told the BBC that rates and minimum wage hikes will push a number of pubs to the brink. He says ‘a further £62,000 worth of costs onto the business, which is absolutely at its knees at the moment’ and says that the rises will mean ‘less employment, less investment, less training in the people that we’ve got, and less jobs for young people’ and the Budget would ‘be the death knell to the British pub.’

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Black Friday:

Data from MRI Software suggests that footfall across the UK’s High Streets was down on Black Friday this year compared to 2024. It says that visitor numbers were down by around 2% on the day itself and down by around 7.2% on the days either side…

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Services sector:

The UK services sector generates around three quarters of GDP. It is diverse & comprises B2B services (such as banking, insurance, legal services etc) as well as B2C services (such as leisure, hospitality, retail). The CBI has today updated on business sentiment in services saying that sector conditions deteriorated in the three months to November. The CBI reports that ‘business sentiment and activity dropped further across the services sector in the quarter to November.’ It adds that ‘business volumes dropped sharply’ but ‘average selling prices were unchanged despite cost growth remaining elevated….’

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Other news:

Peak Pizza? The Guardian suggests that food competition is intensifying and that the country may have reached ‘peak pizza’. It links this to the departure of Andrew Rennie from the helm at Domino’s Group, which was announced last week. Mr Rennie had suggested that the days of massive growth were over.

Corporate confidence: The Institute of Directors has reported that corporate confidence has fallen further in the wake of last week’s Budget. The IOD says that its confidence index, which measures business leaders’ optimism about the UK economy, was near a record low of minus 73 in the run up to the budget, and that some indicators suggested that it had ‘shifted downwards significantly…’

UKH Cymru has urged the Welsh Government to use Barnett consequentials — and any other appropriate new money – resulting from the UK Budget to deliver an overhaul of planned business rates reform to include hospitality….

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS:

Trading – the end of Q4 and Q1-26 to date were impacted by pre-Budget fears. The LFL numbers are considered very good in this context. The group has continued nine years of ‘sustained market outperformance’. Costs & prices – Costs rose by c£100m in FY25. For FY26, the company models a pre-mitigation cost rise of c£130m (would normally be c£90m). Food & drink costs (esp. red meat) will rise ahead of trend and labour will rise as NIC changes impact for a full year and the new NLW increase impacts financial H2. Other costs are more in line with trend. FY26 impact of c6% is ahead of norm. Figures should normalise thereafter.

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COMPANY NEWS:

Gregg’s. Singapore-based investor Lauro Asset Management is urging Gregg’s to aggressively cut its cost base and it has accused the company of timidity…

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Gregg’s, which has been astute in spotting headline-grabbing gimmicks, is reported to be launching a range of Christmas cards which come with the gift of a sausage roll.

Australia’s Treasury Wine Estates has cautioned that it will need to recognise a non-cash impairment of A$687.4 million on its U.S.-based assets. The shares fell to a 10-year low in Monday trading.

Tortilla Mexican Grill has announced the appointment of Duncan Garrood as Non-Executive Chair, with effect from 5 December 2025. The company reports that ‘Duncan succeeds Emma Woods, who, as previously announced, will step down as Chair following four years on the Board….’

Byron has reportedly been purchased by Niyamo Capital.

Cooks Coffee Company Limited on Friday reported interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2025, saying that group revenues rose by 111% to NZ$5.77m, driven significantly by company-managed stores in Ireland…

Gail’s. Grain Topco, which owns Bread Holdings and the Gail’s bakery chain, has reported results to 28 Feb 2925 to Companies’ House saying that revenue rose by 20% to £278.0m. The company reports that its GP% slipped slightly to 38.2% from 38.8% in the prior year. EBITDA nonetheless rose by 19% to £51.1m. Operating profit was up by 16% at £25.7m. The group, which is financed by a mixture of debt and preference shares, the latter similar in some private companies to equity, reports a loss before tax – but after financing charges on the aforementioned instruments, of £7.8m (FY24: loss £7.4m). Grain has accumulated losses (after financing charges) of £41.6m and it has negative net worth of £32.9m….

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Keystone Brewing. Sky News reports that acquisitive brewing company Keystone Brewing Group, which owns brands such as Black Sheep, Hofmeister and Fourpure, ‘is on the brink of collapse as it grapples with a lethal cocktail of surging costs and waning consumer confidence…’

Admiral Taverns. Admiral CEO Chris Jowsey has told the Morning Advertiser that his company aims to reach 2,000 pubs after procuring 21 sites from RedCat. He says around 2,000 pubs would be optimal for Admiral.

Redemption Roasters reports that it ‘is on a mission to reduce reoffending through coffee.’ It says that, as at ‘October 2025, 32% of our staff was made up of prison leavers.’

FROM THE ARCHIVE:

We are now, as M&B reminded us on Friday, nearer to 2030 than we are to the outbreak of the Covid pandemic. Nonetheless, Covid remains one of the most significant events of recent years and five years ago today, on 1 December 2020, as we were just coming out of the second lockdown and didn’t yet know that we had a third to look forward to, we wrote the following:

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Premier Inn owner Whitbread reported on the impact of the Budget on Friday, saying that ‘in the UK, the return to market growth has continued into the third quarter and we continue to trade well with positive RevPAR growth and our forward bookings remain ahead of last year.’ It said that ‘in Germany, market demand has stepped up since the second quarter, supported by a strong events calendar, and we continue to outperform the market.’ WTB reports ‘there is no change to our previously announced FY26’ but it does say that last week’s Budget will ‘impact the Group’s future financial performance, particularly significant increases in the rateable values for many hotels prompting a large increase in business rates…’

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Travelodge. Meanwhile rival budget hotel operator Travelodge reports that it has had a ‘solid’ financial performance in its Q3 to end-September….

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Whitbread’s Premier Inn has submitted plans for a new hotel on an existing former Carlisle hotel site.

Airbus A320. Both EasyJet and Wizz Air have updated this morning on the situation re the above aircraft. EasyJet says it has ‘completed the required software updates on all operational aircraft requiring the update over the weekend.’ CEO Kenton Jarvis says ‘safety is, and always will be, our absolute priority.’ He says the ‘work was completed without any disruption to our flying programme.’ Wizz Air made a similar comment.

OTHER LEISURE:

Moody’s comments on UK moves to ban the resale of tickets at above face-value saying that, for Stub Hub, the move is credit negative….

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Ticket prices for The Louvre museum in Paris are to rise by 45% for non-EU visitors.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Jeremy Warner, writing in The Telegraph, says of various studies into Brexit that ‘the great bulk of this analysis tends to conclude that, from an economic perspective at least, Brexit has so far proved close to disastrous.’

Zoopla reports that London house prices fell in the year to November by 0.1%.

Sterling lower at $1.3220 and €1.1401. Oil higher at $63.65. UK 10 year gilt yield down 1 basis point at 4.44%. World markets mostly better on Friday but London set to open around 11 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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