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PREMIUM EMAIL – PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, the weather was good until it wasn’t.

The first bit Up North at least and, given that a late Easter should be accompanied, on average, by better weather than one plonked in the middle of a March snowstorm, pubs’ till should have been ringing.

Anyway, the Mighty Hull City is making sure that the season goes to the wire. And not for the best of reasons as we could still very easily be relegated. Win one, lose one, draw one seems to be the order of the day

Still, it’s another short week.

And shorter still for some as we’ll likely to overwhelmed by a blizzard of ‘out-of-office’ replies when we hit send. So we’ll keep this short and move on to the news:

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

The Oxford Partnership’s latest Market Watch Snapshot for March 2025 suggests that ‘stout has taken centre stage in draught beer performance, recording an impressive 17.1% uplift in the latest week and a year-to-date growth of 12.4%.’ it says this marks ‘a departure from the declining popularity of core and craft beer segments….’

• The Oxford Partnership says it sees ‘a complex but optimistic picture of the UK on-trade landscape.’ It says that ‘despite a slight decline in the number of trading hospitality venues—down 0.8% year-to-date—venues that remain open are maintaining consistent opening hours and even modestly increasing them, signalling a stable operational stance amid continued economic headwinds.’

• It says that dwell time is on the up and adds that ‘spend per head on drinks has risen by 5.97% year-to-date, while food spend has surged by 7.98%, reinforcing the trend towards quality-driven, experience-focused occasions.’ It adds that it also notes ‘the continued growth of premium and world lagers, the latter posting a year-to-date increase of 6.1% and an 11.0% gain in the most recent week. Regional performance varies, with suburban areas showing the greatest resilience, while London has seen a recent upswing in volume following earlier declines.’

• CEO Alison Jordan says ‘the growth in stout and world lagers reflects a desire for quality and depth, while the uptick in dwell time and spend per head shows people are seeking more from their hospitality experiences. It’s encouraging to see venues adapting and thriving even as the market evolves.’

Consumer behaviour:

CGA reports that there are ‘glimmers of recovery amid continued cost of living pressures’. It says that there is ‘growing polarisation in On Premise behaviours across Great Britain and Ireland, as the cost of living remains a chief concern to both footfall and spend in the On Premise.’ It says ‘there are tentative signs of recovery but ongoing pressures on household finances continue to shape channel engagement, consumer footfall, and brand spend across the board….’

• CGA reports that 55% of UK households say they are either severely or moderately impacted by the cost of living. It adds that 42% of consumers who are going out less than usual (up 6 percentage points on a year ago) but it does concede that around a fifth of consumers are going out more.

• CGA adds that ‘fewer consumers have decreased their overall monthly spend compared to last year. But those watching their spend per visit are doing so to budget, indicating ongoing caution with disposable income.’ Key reasons to go out remain unchanged (celebrations, treats, meet friends etc) but CGA does say that there is ‘growth potential in higher value visits.’

• Karl Chessell, CGA by NIQ’s Director of Hospitality Operators and Food, EMEA, says this is ‘a pivotal moment for the British On Premise’. He says ‘many consumers understandably remain cautious. But there’s growing appetite among important segments to go out, spend more, and try something new – if the offer is right.’

Fiscal drag:

The OBS has reported that some eight million people will be pushed into paying tax, or paying tax at a higher rate, as a result of successive governments freezing tax thresholds. This will clearly take money out of people’s pockets as the government continues to attempt to fix its funding shortfall…

• The Institute for Fiscal Studies has called freezes to thresholds a ‘stealthy’ way to tax people without raising as much of a stink as would putting up rates. The Resolution Foundation says, on the other hand, that this is a ‘progressive way to raise revenues’.

Opening hours:

Pubs will be allowed to stay open until 1am on VE day this year, the 80th anniversary of victory in Europe…

• The hospitality industry has generally welcomed the news. Michael Kill, CEO at the Night Time Industries Association, says this will give pubs and bars ‘a much-needed boost while paying tribute to our shared history.’ UKH says that it is ‘pleased’ with the extension.

Other news:

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said that the UK population should and would accept chlorinated chicken as a part of a trade deal with the US….

• He tells the Sunday Times ‘if you have a look at the chicken we are currently importing from Thailand, you look at the conditions they’ve been reared in, and that every single bag of pre-made salad in every single supermarket has been chlorinated … once those basics have been accepted I’ll have a debate with you.’

COMPANY NEWS:

World spirits no2 Pernod Ricard has reported Q3 sales (the quarter to end-June) down 3% on last year at €2,278 million. Cumulative nine month sales are now down 4% on last year. Pernod maintains that its performance has been ‘resilient’…

• The company adds that the trading environment ‘remains challenging and very fluid with regard to tariffs.’ It adds that its outlook, for a low single-digit fall in net organic sales remains unchanged. It says ‘this outlook incorporates the impact of expected tariffs in China and in the US based on the information we have today.’

Meatliquor founder Scott Collins speaks to The Telegraph saying that had he known what the financial climate was going to be, he would not have bought his bar in Covent Garden. Bloodsports, which opened earlier this year…

• Mr Collins says that running bars and restaurants just isn’t fun any more. He says it has become a struggle, adding ‘had I known what the current financial climate was going to be like now, and the lack of consumer confidence, I wouldn’t have bought this place.’ He goes on to say that the ‘world’s got worse, which no one was expecting. So if I could turn back the clock, I wouldn’t have done it.’

• Mr Collins adds ‘we did our calculations in November, and just the National Insurance rise and the Living Wage rise – which then affects everyone being paid more that, because you can’t not give everyone else a raise – we needed to find, as of April 1, an extra £300,000 per year.’ He says ‘lunch has just fallen off a cliff, and you’re now up against everyone discounting, especially the groups that have private equity backing.’

Chipotle Mexican Grill in the US has announced it has signed a development agreement to open restaurants in Mexico for the first time…

• Coals to Newcastle. The company says ‘we are confident that our responsibly sourced, classically-cooked real food will resonate with guests in Mexico.’ It adds ‘the country’s familiarity with our ingredients and affinity for fresh food make it an attractive growth market for our company.’

The Sun reports that the restaurant chain set up by Sir Lewis Hamilton and Leonardo DiCaprio has been forced to close all its outlets in the UK after six troubled years in business. It says that Vegan food outlet Neat Burger, set up by the celebrities in 2019, has confirmed its British stores are now shutting, with the potential loss of around 150 jobs.

The Daily Mail reports that former F1 champion Fernando Alonso has bought a stake of over 20% in Sticks ‘n’ Sushi alongside McWin Capital Partners, the PE backer.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Brighton’s Pier’s shareholders meet today at 10an to vote on the proposal to delist the company’s shares…

• PIER earlier this month said it had ‘conducted a careful review of the benefits and drawbacks to the Company and the Shareholders in retaining the Company’s quotation on AIM and believe that seeking Shareholder approval for the proposed Cancellation and Re-registration…is in the best interests of the Company and the Shareholders as a whole.’ The company said a 75% vote is necessary. It added ‘if the Cancellation Resolution is passed at the General Meeting, it is anticipated that the Cancellation will become effective at 7.00 a.m. on 2 May 2025.’

TTG reports that Carnival Corporation is taking steps to close down Carnival Cruise Line’s UK team and “sunset” this area of the business in May. It adds that the proposed closure will come into effect on 12 May….

• Carnival says ‘after careful consideration of our strategic objectives for the UK market, we have made the difficult decision to propose the closure of the ’Seavacations’ team in the UK and sunset this part of the organisation.’ It adds ‘we are currently having individual conversations with the Carnival Cruise Line team in the UK to discuss potential future opportunities within the wider business.’

Gatwick remains the UK’s worst airport for flight delays with an average delay of 23.6 minutes. Stansted is next at 20.3 minutes followed by Manchester, also on 20.3 minutes. Towards the bottom of the worst 10 airports are Luton at 18.6 minutes and Heathrow at 18 minutes.

Accor is reported to have 17 hotels in its Americas region via the acquisition of hotel management contracts from Royal Holiday Group.

OTHER LEISURE:

The FT reports that ‘crypto casino takings have soared to tens of billions of dollars a year…as gamblers bypass blocks in their home countries to bet on unregulated offshore platforms.’ It says ‘despite being illegal in most countries, wagers paid in cryptocurrency last year generated $81.4bn in gross gaming revenue, the difference between bets taken in and winnings paid out, according to research by anti-online-crime platform Yield Sec. This represents a fivefold rise since 2022.

Netflix last week beat Wall Street expectations for Q1 numbers saying that revenue had risen to $10.54bn, ahead of analysts’ estimates of $10.52bn. EPS of 661c beat estimates of around 571c.

A US judge has decided in favour of the US Department of Justice and ruled that Google has a monopoly in online advertising technology. Google maintains that ‘publishers have many options and they choose Google because our ad tech tools are simple, affordable and effective.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Tariffs & trade. China has said it will hit out at countries that make deals with the US that hurt its own interests. China further cautions against appeasing the US. The US has said it will impose port fees on Chinese ships in an attempt to revive shipbuilding in America.

US President Donald Trump has said that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s contract ‘termination cannot come fast enough.’ He says Mr Powell should be aggressively cutting interest rates. He says ‘the USA is getting rich on tariffs.’

The US dollar & US stocks fell yesterday as President Donald Trump apparently moved to undermine Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He called him ‘a major loser’ for not cutting interest rates more rapidly.

The IMF has suggested that trade tariff uncertainty will negatively impact global growth, but it is still not forecasting a global recession.

Sterling up sharply against the US$ at $1.3403 and little changed vs the Euro at €1.1629. Oil a shade higher at $66.72. UK 10 year gilt yield down 4 basis points at 4.57%. World markets mixed with US lower yesterday. London set to open around 64 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• Friday’s Press and News (1): The FT wasn’t published on Good Friday, but “Ministers scramble to stop Labour rebellion on disability benefit cuts” was the Guardian’s front-page splash and the i headline was “UK under ‘huge pressure’ to cut food standards to win America deal”. “‘Third spaces’ could be needed for trans people” reported the Times, whilst the Daily Mail gloated about “Labour turmoil on trans ruling” and the Telegraph flagged that “UK’s biggest bank vows ‘solidarity’ with trans workers” (Lloyds Bank has pledged to support its transgender staff).

• Friday’s Press and News (2): In terms of Retail news coverage in Friday’s papers, there was plenty of focus on the Sainsbury finals. The main Business story in the Daily Mail was headlined “Supermarket price war hits Sainsbury’s” and there were similar headlines in the Guardian (“Sainsbury’s says price war and rising wage costs will hit profits”) and the Times (“Sainsbury’s expects profit squeeze from grocer’s price war”). The Business editorial in the Times praised the work of CEO Simon Roberts (“Roberts’ tills ring”), concluding that “when it comes to the impact of Roberts on the business, shareholders should be able to taste the difference”. The Times had a separate article flagging that Sainsbury’s boss Simon Roberts had called for the Government to close the tax “loophole” on cheap Chinese imports (fearing the impact on Argos). The Telegraph also picked up on that news
(“Sainsbury’s boss: close China tax loophole”), but it had nothing about the results. The Telegraph did however, have snippets about the updates from Dunelm (“Dunelm sales up 6.3% despite ‘uncertainty’”) and Deliveroo (“Orders accelerate at Deliveroo as delivery app enjoys growth”), as did the Daily Mail: “Bargain buys boost Dunelm sales” and “Deliveroo relished record orders”. The Times had a much bigger article about the Dunelm update, complete with a photo (“Big-ticket sales cushion Dunelm from retail gloom”). The Times also took advantage of the photo opportunity provided by the confident Deliveroo Q1 update to run quite a big article, headlined “Deliveroo fills up on unexpected orders”.

• Saturday’s Press and News (1): On Saturday, there were a variety of stories on the front pages and the main story in the FT flagged that “Defence review urges Arctic build-up”, whilst the Guardian led with “Teachers warn of surge in racism and misogyny”. The Daily Telegraph highlighted the views of the Chancellor (in an interview with the paper) on the importance of maintaining good relations with China (“Reeves: It is foolish to cut our ties with China”), whilst the Times flagged that “UN refugee body backs ‘return hubs’ for migrants”. The Daily Mail wailed about “Bin strike union’s iron grip over Labour ministers”. And… if you’re wondering what the wretched Boris Johnson had to say in his Daily Mail Saturday column about the US failure to broker a sustained ceasefire in Ukraine or the Supreme Court ruling on women, readers had to put with some tosh about WhatsApp instead: “When
they come to explain the collapse of civilisation, the tyranny of WhatsApp will be among the culprits!”.

• Saturday’s Press and News (2): In terms of Retailing news in Saturday’s papers, there was little about specific companies, but plenty of general articles about sector issues, eg one of the main Business stories in the Times was about the response of some big delivery companies to retailers who want an end to cheap Chinese imports: “Ending tax loophole for cheap Chinese goods ‘risks higher prices’”. The Times also flagged the worries about supply chain disruption (“Shoppers face price rises and shortages as shipping disrupted”) and the problems of luxury goods businesses like LVMH (“Luxury brands pay the price for global economic turmoil”). In a similar vein, the Guardian highlighted that ‘the show goes on’ for Ralph Lauren, despite the current turmoil (“Fashion victims: Designer labels in turmoil as Trump’s tariffs hit their supply chains”). The Guardian also noted that “Growers
criticise UK supermarkets for heavy Easter discounts on vegetables”. Talking of UK supermarkets, the FT had a big article about the impact of Asda’s so-called ‘price war’ (“Asda raises the stakes with rivals as supermarkets gear up for price war”), noting that ‘Investors rattled by grocers’ willingness to take large profits hits in order to maintain market share’. And both the FT and the Guardian flagged that UK supermarkets have called on the EU to help smooth the export of food and drink across the Channel and the Irish Sea.    

• Sunday’s Press and News (1): On Sunday, the Sunday Telegraph led with President Zelensky accusing President Putin of failing to uphold the “Easter truce” that the Russian leader had called for (“Zelensky: Putin shatters own truce”). Late editions of the Sunday Times also led with that news (“Putin’s ‘truce’ is a lie, says Zelensky”), but in early editions the main story was about the reaction to the campaigners who won the battle over the legal definition of a woman (“Victory in the Supreme Court – then a deluge of hate mail”). The main front-page story in the Observer was about another war, the one in Gaza: “Fear and despair rise in Gaza as seven-week Israeli blockade hits”.

• Sunday’s Press and News (2): On Sunday, in terms of Retailing news in the papers, the Observer had a big Business feature on the future of Boots (“‘It might be gutted’ – Boots braces for dose of private equity’s bitter medicine”), flagging the sceptical mood of staff and locals at its home base in Nottinghamshire, although it ended by quoting one source who said that Boots is ‘thriving’ and could do even better with more investment. The Observer also had a feature interview with the co-CEO of the Cook ready meals chain, Rosie Brown, “on keeping the business in the family, helping offenders back to work and why ethical practices pay dividends for society”.  The Sunday Telegraph had a small article about Asda’s move to re-start is convenience store opening programme (“Asda to open dozens of small stores to win back shoppers”). The Sunday Times had a big Business feature about the
problems of the luxury goods industry, highlighting the huge rise in the cost of luxury handbags since 2019 (“Is luxury losing its lustre?”).

• Sunday’s Press and News (3): In terms of the Economics comment columns in the Sunday papers,  we give our usual shout-out to the column by David Smith, the Sunday Times Economics correspondent (headlined “April may not be the cruellest month for jobs”), in which he noted that ‘We have no idea whether official labour market data is even close to reality’. We also enjoyed the column by the veteran City commentator Jeremy Warner in the Sunday Telegraph about Trump’s wish to sack the Fed Reserve Chairman (headlined “Trump may be right about interest rates. But he is playing with fire”), noting that ‘It is true that the Fed should be doing more, but wrecking the bank’s credibility will have the opposite effect’.

• Monday’s Press and News (1): According to the invaluable Guardian press email summary, the front-page headline in the Guardian is “UK cancer patients losing out on life-saving drugs ‘due to Brexit’”. The i has “Mini nuclear plants network for UK raises security fears”. “World’s confidence battered as trade uncertainty haunts key IMF meetings” is the main story in the Financial Times and the Times goes with “UK boosts munitions to end dependence on US”. Elsewhere, the fall-out from last week’s Supreme Court ruling is still dominating the Tory press: “No10: We won’t stop pro-trans plotters” says the Daily Telegraph, and the Daily Mail demands “Starmer must break his silence on trans judgment”. The Guardian’s main front-page photo is of the Pope appearing in St Peter’s Square yesterday to wish worshippers “Happy Easter” following his serious illness. Tomorrow’s papers will be dominated by
the very sad news that the Pope died early this morning, not long (coincidentally) after meeting the loathsome US Vice-President JD Vance… 

• Monday’s Press and News (2): In terms of Retail news in the papers on Bank Holiday Monday, the cupboard is pretty bare, although the Times takes advantage of the fashion model photo opportunity provided by the news that the up-and-coming British ‘rural’ fashion brand Fairfax & Favor is gaining traction in the US, after signing Zara Tindall as a brand ambassador (“Fashion firm expands its US footprint”). The Times also flags the expansion plans of the big Dutch luxury beauty and wellbeing brand Rituals (“Rituals plans to open a new shop every working day this year”).

Today’s News: Apart from the usual flurry of share buyback announcements (which includes the start of Sainsbury’s £200m buyback), there is no other news out today so far.

Thursday’s News: Just a few minutes before the market closed back on Thursday, bizarrely, Games Workshop announced that it had published a circular and notice convening a General Meeting on May 15th seeking shareholder approval of a revised director’s remuneration policy and a new share awards plan. The circular is no less than 21 pages long and appears to respond to the investor criticism that the current remuneration policy is insufficiently weighted to share price performance…And back on Thursday morning, Revolution Beauty Group, the struggling beauty brand in which Boohoo/Debenhams has a big stake, announced that Lauren Brindley will stand down as Group Chief Executive Officer on 31 May 2025, to take up a big new role as the Chief Merchandising and Digital Officer at Ulta Beauty, the largest beauty retailer in the United States (the Ulta market cap is  over $16bn, compared to
just £30m for Revolution Beauty…).

Today’s Press: According to the invaluable Guardian press email summary, the front-page headlines of today’s papers are dominated by the very sad news that the Pope died early yesterday morning, not long (coincidentally) after meeting the controversial US Vice-President JD Vance in the Vatican… “Groundbreaking head of Catholic church, Pope Frances, dies at 88” is the main story in the Guardian. “‘Outsider’ with a mission to change the Catholic church” is the main headline in the Times while the Daily Express has “He touched the lives of so many” and the Daily Mail says “He’s returned to the house of the Father”. “One last Easter blessing and his work was done” is overlaid on the Telegraph’s page one photo, but its somewhat counterpoised non-picture lead is “Trump ignites fresh market chaos”. “People’s pope” says the Daily Mirror and so do the i and the Sun. The Financial Times also has
a portrait of the Pope on its front-page, but the lead story is “Beijing warns of retaliation against nations doing US deals”.

BDO High Street Sales Tracker: The weekly BDO High Street Sales Tracker for medium-sized Non-Food chains gets a lot of attention, because… it is the only weekly (as opposed to monthly) guide, that’s publicly available, to what’s happening to Non-Food Retail spending. Unfortunately, it is over-concentrated on relatively upmarket/small Fashion retailers and underplays “big ticket” household spending (although it includes a few Homewares and Lifestyle retailers). We also think that the survey’s approach is statistically flawed. However, the latest survey, for what it’s worth, shows that trading was good again in the w/e April 13th, helped by the continued warm and sunny weather, with Total BDO LFL sales up by 6.8% (with overall Store sales flat on last year and overall Online sales up by 13.4% LFL), whilst total Fashion sales alone were up by 13.8% LFL.

News Flow This Week: After the long Easter weekend, there’s not much Retailing news scheduled for this week, apart from the ASOS interims on Thursday, although Friday morning brings the widely-followed monthly GFK Consumer Confidence index and the belated ONS Retail Sales figures for March.