Intercontinental, discounting, stagflation, services output, US Q1s etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, though short, this week has felt a bit longer than most.

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We’ve tried to keep it in perspective but some of the Press headlines maybe convey the mood. There will always be winners and, on a brighter note, the sun’s shining and it’s the weekend. Have a good one & let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer recession likely?

The MPC has raised rates for the fourth meeting in a row, the first time it has done this since its independence 25yrs ago. At the same time, the Bank has said that ‘negative growth’ is likely next year. Whether or not these negative quarters are consecutive (to produce a technical recession) or not, is of little consequence.

• The Bank ‘voted by a majority of 6-3 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points.’ It said ‘those members in the minority preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points.’ That would have come as a shock. It says ‘global inflationary pressures have intensified sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has led to a material deterioration in the outlook for world and UK growth.’

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Working from Home.

Or not working at all as PwC has told its accountants and other staff they can finish work at Lunchtime on Fridays over the summer, assuming they get their work done. The move comes after PwC ran a pilot of ‘summer working hours’ in July and August last year, which proved so popular that the policy has been extended by another month this summer.

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UK Services Sector:

S&P Global (was IHS Markit) has released its UK services PMI for April saying that ‘although the UK service sector remained firmly inside growth territory during April, there were signs that sustained increases in the cost of doing business and the war in Ukraine combined to limit the pace of expansion at the start of the second quarter.’

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Other news:

New Zealand wine volumes look set to rise this year after falling by 19% last.

CPL Learning is offering a free basic course in sign language to operators who may wish to get a better understanding of the challenges faced by Deaf people.

DISCOUNTING:

What’s going on?

• Pizza Express is offering 50% off to Club members until 29th of this month.

• Pizza Hut is offering all you can eat, Monday to Friday until 3pm (at some restaurants it’s 5pm) from a pizza/pasta buffet.

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COMPANY NEWS:

US Q1s.

Papa Johns International has reported Q1 numbers, ditto Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse & others.

Stonegate has launched its first ‘Chapter Collection’ premium site. The collection will feature premium food-led pubs initially in city centres, with the first to open being the Clerk & Well on Clerkenwell Road.

Bodega Bay, a London based hard seltzer brand, has announced that it has raised £1.1m from its Crowdcube campaign, exceeding its £400k initial target. This round will be used to drive growth in the UK and export markets.

200 Degrees, the Nottingham-based coffee roaster, is opening its third shop in its hometown on Monday, bringing its total estate to 17 sites.

The Guardian reports that BrewDog CEO James Watt has brought a private prosecution against a woman, accusing her of fraud and malicious communication. Watt claims Emili Ziem, 29, has provided false information about who was responsible for ‘malicious’ comments made about him on social media.

Pret A Manger global chief digital officer Sarah Venning says the company will enhance the personalisation and targeting of its loyalty scheme Pret Perks later this year.

McColl’s Retail Group has updated on its perilous situation.

Pistachio Holdings have acquired a further shareholding in Cream from the brand’s founders, Adam Mani and Balal Aqil. Co-investor Salonica Maroon enlarged their stake. Since the pandemic, Creams has opened more than 10 new restaurants and secured a pipeline of a further 15 sites opening in the next six months.

Asahi is aiming for 20% of its portfolio to by alcohol free by 2030.

Bloomberg’s Pret Index has suggested that transactions in the City and Canary Wharf rose last week to 88% of their pre-pandemic levels ‘indicating that office occupancy may be almost back to normal.’ That, of course, depends on how much was down to volume and how much to price.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

InterContinental Hotels Group has reported Q1 numbers saying that REVPAR for the quarter was up 61% on last year to 82% of 2019 levels. It says that it signed 16.6k rooms in Q1 to take the system to 885k rooms globally. CEO Keith Barr says ‘we’ve seen very positive trading conditions in the first quarter with travel demand continuing to increase in almost all of our key markets around the world.’

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Knight Frank research shows that UK Hotel transaction volumes have exceeded £1.5bn in the first four months of the year, up 40% on H1 2021 investment volumes. London secured approximately £750m of hotel transactions and the UK regions attracted over £800m.

IATA reports total air passenger traffic in March 2022 was up 76% YoY, but still 41% below March 2019. IATA also cautioned that delays at airports could hit consumer ‘enthusiasm’.

Leger Shearings Group reports a record week for sales in the seven days to May 1 ahead of price increases. The coach holiday specialist saw bookings rise 11% on the previous top week for bookings achieved in January.

Booking Holidays reports a rise in Q1 revenue to  $2.69bn, compared to $1.14bn a year prior. The news sent its shares  up 7.5%.

Royal Caribbean Group has reported Q1 numbers

STR has said that the UK and Polish hotel markets have recovered most rapidly in terms of occupancy across Europe.

IATA says the pace of recovery in airline volumes is moderating. DG Willie Walsh says ‘with barriers to travel coming down in most places, we are seeing the long-expected surge in pent-up demand finally being realised.’ He adds ‘unfortunately, we are also seeing long delays at many airports with insufficient resources to handle the growing numbers.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Elon Musk is reported to have lined up 19 new investors to put money into Twitter.

Newbury Racecourse has reported full year numbers to end-December saying that turnover rose by 75% to £14.8m and the group made a marginal profit against losses of £2.4m in the prior year.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England yesterday raised UK rates to 1%, their highest level since 2009. The 0.25% move had been expected. The Bank says inflation has ‘intensified’ since governor Andrew Bailey said it was transitory. The Ukraine conflict has raised some prices.

The Bank of England has warned that the UK economy could shrink last year. The IMF has already said that it believes the UK will have the slowest growth in the G7 next year. The UK could have the slowest growth of all major industrialised countries bar Russia.

Inflation. The Bank says inflation will average over 10% in Q4.

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Sterling weaker at $1.2365 and €1.1738. Oil price higher at $111.22. UK 10yr gilt yield down 2bps at 1.96%. World markets mixed yesterday. London set to open around 24 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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